2023/2024 NBA Game 5 Betting Predictions
The Mavs shocked the Celtics in Game 4 to keep the NBA Finals alive. But can they produce something similar in Boston on Tuesday morning? Here's a look at the Game 5 NBA Finals matchup.
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (Celtics 3-1)
The Mavs came to play in Game 4, smashing the Celtics 122-84. Their defence was impressive so they need to bring that to Boston. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving also need to come out strong right from the start. Their best chance of winning this game lies in another powerful opening. Despite how great they are as a duo, they still need their role players to step up. PJ Washington, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dante Exum have the talent to make a significant impact in this game. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II also need to stay strong on the boards / blocking shots.
Luka is averaging 28.9 points per game this postseason, while Kyrie is at 22.5. For them to win this game, both need to score 25+ points and the role players must contribute meaningful minutes. On the defensive side, Dallas needs to focus on preventing Boston from hitting their threes. The Celtics are known for taking a lot of early shots from beyond the arc, so containing that should be their top priority.
In the last game, Exum scored 10 points, and Hardaway had a notable 15, most of which came late. Hardaway’s veteran presence could be crucial for hitting a few key shots again on Tuesday. If the Mavericks are within around 10 points heading into the fourth quarter, they have a shot at covering the spread, I think. If the lead is larger, it’ll be tough. Boston is unlikely to ease up if they have a big lead.
The Celtics have had a tough time starting strong in games played in Dallas, but they improved significantly in the first two contests at home in Boston. I don't think we'll see a repeat of what happened in Game 3; if the Celtics get a big lead, they’ll keep it. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown must avoid settling for fadeaway threes early in the shot clock. Tatum himself mentioned this after Game 3. Smarter possessions will help prevent the scoring droughts they experienced in Dallas.
Tatum and Brown need to keep pressuring Luka Doncic on defence. Get those screens going to force him, or Kyrie Irving, into defensive plays. The more energy these two expend on defence, the easier it will be for the Celtics to control the game. Making Doncic and Irving work on both ends of the court is crucial.
A key stat for Boston this postseason is their record following a loss - they’ve won every game comfortably. Given how the first two games went in Boston, this upcoming game shouldn't be as high-scoring. A lower score will improve Boston's chances of coming out on top.
I love the chances of the Under in Game 5. Dallas brought the heat defensively last game and even Luka was playing better on D. The Under is also now 7-0 in the Celtics last 7 playoff games. In this matchup, the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Stadium Record
Boston are 5-0 in their last 5 games at home. Dallas are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Celtics are 7-3.
Best Bet
