This weekend's headline plays are the Golden Rose at Rosehill with Tron Bolt, Central Europe and Stormy Marco as our speculative plays, and Extragalactic at $8 in the Manikato Stakes at Caulfield. Decorum is our strongest Traders' Best Bet at 10 units at $1.90 in Rosehill Race 5.
A bumper weekend of racing with the Golden Rose highlighting Grand Final day from Rosehill. Then on Sunday Group 1 racing heads to Caulfield on a controversial 13-metre rail. Let's preview the key races and see where our traders are eyeing early markets across a marathon weekend of wagering.
Feature Races
Rosehill
Golden Rose - Rosehill - 1400m G1
Sounds odd to say but I don't think Guest House off running a track record is a great set-up. Brilliant on resumption winning the San Domenico, but he got an 11/10 steer on a hard fence day and now jumps from 1100m to 1400m off a four-week break. I couldn't possibly take 5/4. Of course he can win and he's in the right camp, but it just looks a price you have to take on.
Warwoven is taking up a lot of percentage and is another horse I can't get as short. Went forward in the lead-up but got favours on a slow tempo and sprinted too sharp. I think that's him, a horse with a short sharp sprint, and although he draws the right spot and maps well I think he might be putting up the white flag late. St Gotthard a great chance. Steamed in betting first up and just went down to one with race fitness. Seven furlongs suits, it's just where he gets to from the draw. McDonald on board signals they think he's their top seed. Under Focus very good in both runs this prep but not sure he has the class.
I'm looking at backing a few at longer odds here. Tron Bolt was a complete barrier trial first up and although he's drawn poorly, I think they run along solidly enough to give him a chance. Central Europe is crying out for more ground and will be hitting the line hard. Stormy Marco good first up at 1400m with the big weight. Happy to spec these three in a race that looks more even than the market suggests.
Tron Bolt @ $13.00 (0.4 Units)
Central Europe @ $21.00 (0.25 Units)
Stormy Marco @ $34.00 (0.15 Units)
Caulfield
Manikato Stakes - Caulfield - 1200m G1
Decent field here for the sprinters. The rail configuration is the biggest talking point, out to 13 metres, and no idea how it will play so monitor early, but you would think those on pace are advantaged. Beiwacht a logical choice as he finds the front here but drops from 1400m back to 1200m. There are horses with much better turns of foot in this race so I think his best chance is going out really hard and trying to hold them off. Not for me.
Extragalactic was sensational at Sandown and might have made it interesting with a cleaner getaway. 1200m is much better for her and she's a sprinter on the up. Great each-way bet at the price with McDonald to do the steering. Oliveanotherday faces his toughest test and looks way too short off the last-start failure. Jury's out on both Giga Kick and Jimmysstar. Napoleonic was an interesting runner. Good chasing Ninja first up in good time and trialled like a rocket recently. Can see him getting a nice run here and looking the winner at some stage.
Extragalactic @ $8.00 EW (0.7 Units)
Napoleonic @ $12.00 (0.5 Units)
Traders' Best Bets
Rosehill Race 1 - Call Me Sassy
Horse is flying and should have finished closer to the favourite last start with clear running. No weight again and drawn for a nice run out to 1300m.
Call Me Sassy @ $5.50 (1.1 Units)
Rosehill Race 5 - Decorum
Toyed with them first up in what has already proven to be a fruitful form race. Run of the race here and I don't think they get near him.
Rosehill Race 7 - Lazzura
I hate the lead-up they all come through but I think the 1200m might have been a little sharp for her first up. Improved for the run and at 1400m I'll give her the chance to bounce back.
Rosehill Race 9 - Skyhook
Justified the trials with a good win first up where he had to be tough. Every possible on the map again and his second-up record is just as good.
Caulfield Race 2 - Pretty Baby
Couldn't get near her at Sandown running a number and I doubt they can again. Putting herself forward as the best middle distance filly in the country.
Caulfield Race 6 - Boys Bounce
Lara Antipova taking on the boys again and very happy to lay. I thought Boys Bounce was exceptional jumping from 1200m to 1500m and winning well at Sandown after an eye-catching debut. Hoping he rolls forward again as I think he'll be hard to catch. Big price.
Boys Bounce @ $15.00 (0.4 Units)
Running Total: +6.1 Units
Big Bets
Where the money has been going across the weekend's major meetings.
Rosehill
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 1 No.7 | Better Late | $5,000 | $3.00 |
| Race 4 No.3 | Starzintheireyes | $5,000 | $2.40 |
| Race 6 No.1 | Blue Door | $20,000 | $1.80 |
| Race 8 No.1 | Guest House | $10,000 | $2.40 |
| Race 8 No.9 | Under Focus | $1,000 | $11.00 |
Caulfield
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 2 No.4 | Pretty Baby | $5,000 | $2.00 |
| Race 5 No.5 | Pride of Jenni | $50,000 | $2.00 |
| Race 6 No.1 | Diameter | $2,000 | $3.40 |
| Race 8 No.3 | Jimmysstar | $1,000 | $8.50 |
