Our best bet for the 2026 AFL Grand Final Norm Smith Medal is Hayden Young at $15, with the Fremantle midfielder fitting the proven goal-kicking profile that has defined winners over the last 12 years. Will Ashcroft is our next best at $5, with Charlie Cameron at $34 and Jye Amiss at $61 as value plays.
Will Ashcroft will look to create history as the first player to ever win three consecutive Norm Smith Medals, while there are a number of Fremantle players who could challenge for Best on Ground if there is an upset win.
Norm Smith Medal
We've seen some long shots win the Norm Smith Medal over the last few years. Isaac Smith in 2022 paid $51, while Bobby Hill was listed as a $101 shot.
They both had one thing in common though, which is the key trend over the last 12 years. 11 of the last 12 Norm Smith Medalists have kicked goals in the Grand Final, with eight of those 11 kicking multiple goals.
The last two years we've seen Will Ashcroft record 30+ disposals with a goal, which has seen him awarded best player on the ground, listed at $21 in his 2024 effort.
Who can carve out this type of performance on Saturday?
Best Bet
Hayden Young @ $15
Young was enormous in Fremantle's Preliminary Final win, with 28 disposals and a huge game-changing goal at the three-quarter time siren.
Interesting to see whether Dunkley goes to Young or Serong, but of Fremantle's primary midfield mix Young fits the Norm Smith Medal profile best as a proven goal-kicking midfielder. Although his season goals are down, the last fortnight he's hit the scoreboard and come up big.
If the Dockers win, I feel he's the main contender.
Next Best
Will Ashcroft @ $5
It's a short price, but we've seen him do this the last two years and Will Ashcroft's form this season has been significantly stronger than the two years prior.
He had 28 disposals and a goal in last week's Preliminary Final, which is the Norm Smith Medal template and comparable to what he produced in 2024 and 2025.
I don't think Matt Johnson will run with him due to Fremantle's midfield mix, which means we'll likely see Ashcroft off the chain once again.
Value Bets
Charlie Cameron @ $34
He's kicked goals on the big stage before. Cameron kicked four in last year's Grand Final against the Cats, and you can make a case he's in far better form in 2026.
He kicked three last week against the Hawks and five the week prior against the Crows.
Judd McVee will likely get the job. If Charlie kicks four, he's well and truly in the mix.
Jye Amiss @ $61
Key forwards don't win Norm Smith Medals, but could this be the year? Brisbane is prone to conceding monster scores when they lose, and the damage is done by key forwards.
In their Qualifying Final loss to the Swans, McDonald, Curnow and McLean combined for 14 goals, while Gunston and Lewis had nine between them last week. When they lost to the Blues in Round 21, Kemp kicked five and McKay polled a Brownlow vote for 20 disposals and three goals. The Lions and Tigers have conceded the most 4+ goal games to key forwards this season.
In Round 12, it was Patrick Voss and Jye Amiss that did the damage, kicking four goals each. Voss got three votes from the umpires and Amiss two. So could this be the year?
Amiss kicked 4.4 in their Round 12 win and could have gone real big. He's had a quiet finals series, but kicked three bags of five goals across his last four home-and-away games. With Voss likely to play as a defensive forward against Harris Andrews, and Gallop probably going with Treacy, it looks like Darcy Gardiner might have to go to Amiss.
