AFL Grand Final Tips - Dockers vs Lions $5.35 Same Game Multi
Our best bet for the 2026 AFL Grand Final between Fremantle and Brisbane is the Under 204.5 Total Points / Brayshaw, Serong and Zorko combine for 70+ Disposals / Cameron 2+ Goals / Jackson 1+ Goals Same Game Multi at $5.35, with 16 of the last 18 Grand Finals landing under 204.5 points and Charlie Cameron kicking 2+ goals in 10 of his last 11 games against Fremantle.
The Brisbane Lions enter favourites to secure a three-peat, while the Dockers look to create history with their first ever premiership.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions
What a contest we have. The Dockers have been the best team all season, but the recent offensive firepower displayed by the Lions will see them enter this Grand Final as favourites.
They clearly have experience on their side, with the Dockers showing throughout this finals series that nerves can get the better of them, but this contest will not be like any of the Fremantle finals we've seen so far. The Lions lack the pressure that troubled the Dockers on multiple occasions over the last few weeks.
Can the Dockers land their first ever premiership, or will the Lions produce their second three-peat in the last 25 years?
Leg 1 - Under 204.5 Total Points
It's always brave taking unders in a Brisbane game, which is why I've taken the alternate total points line, but I think how the structure, flow and conditions map out we won't see a ridiculous shootout like last week.
19 of Fremantle's 21 wins this season went under 204.5 points, and surprisingly so did 11 of Brisbane's 18 wins, while Grand Final history aligns. 16 of the last 18 Grand Finals, excluding the shortened quarters of 2020, landed under 204.5, including nine of the last ten.
Brisbane do their damage when scoring points from turnover, but the Dockers are the best team in the AFL this season at restricting scores this way. With this being a low pressure game, both teams ranked bottom-three for pressure acts this season, and the Lions being the worst tackling team this season, expect Fremantle to look to control the football from back-half. That's something they haven't managed to do too well most of this finals series against the pressure of the Hawks, and in three quarters against the Swans last week.
We're also looking at 14 degrees with some rain. In their last ten games in similar conditions, Fremantle are 9-1 while the Lions are 5-5, with only 30% of those Fremantle games going overs.
Leg 2 - Brayshaw, Serong and Zorko Combine for 70+ Disposals
Josh Dunkley may go to Serong in this, or potentially Hayden Young, but even if he runs with Serong I feel these three players combined will still record 70+ disposals.
Across the finals so far, Brayshaw and Serong have combined for 57, 47 and 50 disposals. Zorko on the other hand is averaging just under 25 disposals per game this finals series.
The last six times the trio have featured in the same game, they've averaged 85.7 disposals per game between them.
Leg 3 - Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals
Charlie Cameron is in great form this season, and his finals record stacks up.
In last year's Grand Final, Cameron kicked four goals, and although he finished with 1.2 against the Swans in the 2024 Grand Final, he had a productive 14 touches. In Brisbane's loss to the Pies in 2023, he kicked three goals.
Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in 19 of his last 21 games, while kicking 27 goals from his last 11 games against Fremantle, finishing with 2+ goals in ten of those games.
He has kicked 12 goals from his last four games at the MCG.
Leg 4 - Luke Jackson 1+ Goals
Has produced some huge moments this finals series and has impacted the scoreboard throughout.
Jackson has kicked 1+ goals in 12 of his last 15 games, including his last four, and has troubled the Lions across his career.
In his last five games against Brisbane, Jackson has kicked 1+ goal, and there's no doubt he'll look to challenge Sam Draper and Darcy Fort inside Fremantle's 50.
