With a tough fortnight ahead for Nick Daicos, attention turns to the chasing pack. There’s also a $101 outsider entering the top eight after a best-on-ground performance.
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 15.21 | $3.00 |
| 2 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 12.37 | $19 |
| 3 | Zak Butters | PA | 12.36 | $9.00 |
| 4 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 11.38 | $6.00 |
| 5 | Christian Petracca | GC | 11.33 | $8.00 |
| 6 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 9.69 | $10 |
| 7 | Harry Sheezel | NM | 9.62 | $34 |
| 8 | Shai Bolton | Fre | 9.32 | $101 |
Best Bet - Christian Petracca @ $8.00
Petracca sits fifth on our leaderboard but has a strong run coming up to close the gap.
Gold Coast head to Darwin for the next two weeks where they have a strong record, hosting St Kilda and Port Adelaide, before facing North Melbourne at Marvel.
With Matt Rowell in doubt and Noah Anderson yet to hit top gear, Petracca is set to take control over the next few rounds.
Meanwhile, Daicos faces Geelong with a likely tag, followed by Sydney where James Jordan could also go to him. The gap can close quickly.
Lay - Bailey Smith @ $10
Bailey Smith is within striking distance but faces a brutal run.
He was well held last week despite 26 disposals, lacking his usual influence.
Geelong now face Collingwood, Brisbane and Sydney. Even if they split those games, it makes consistent polling difficult.
That puts Smith under pressure at this price.
Value Bet - Shai Bolton @ $101
Jai Newcombe has already shortened from $51 to $19, but the next big mover could be Shai Bolton.
Now inside the top eight, Bolton has been enormous in his hybrid role for Fremantle.
He’s produced multiple 30+ disposal games with scoreboard impact, averaging a career-high 24.5 disposals this season.
His previous best season saw him average 21.7 disposals and poll 14 votes. He’s already operating above that level in 2026 and still flying under the radar.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.
The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical.
Our system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of impact.
This maintains the total of six votes per game while reducing arbitrary decisions and improving prediction accuracy.
The result is a leaderboard that better reflects how games are actually perceived.
