Game 7 baby! What a Western Conference Finals series it's been. Will the Thunder be too good on their home court, or will the Spurs cause the upset and advance to the NBA Finals?
San Antonio Spurs @ OKC Thunder
The Spurs did some genuine damage to OKC in Game 6, and with the Thunder throwing Jalen Williams into the mix to clinch the series on the road, it resulted in him missing Game 7.
Can San Antonio back it up in OKC, or will the Thunder simply be too good and experienced on their home court in what will likely be a defensive, physical contest?
Leg 1 - Alex Caruso 10+ Points
The Thunder are going to need to play a lot of Alex Caruso in this. He has easily got OKC's best plus-minus for the series at +38, along with their best net rating at +11.
Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are both out of Game 7, while Lu Dort is a genuine liability, so I think we see McCain, Wallace and Caruso playing 30+ minutes each in this.
Averaging 15.3 points per game this series and hitting 10+ in four of the six games, Caruso's home games against the Spurs have been huge where he averages 23.3 from those three games.
Leg 2 - Dylan Harper 2+ Assists
Harper has the Spurs' best net rating this series, along with a really strong plus-minus, just behind Wemby for the Spurs.
The Spurs will need a big game from the rookie, with Fox playing injured and not producing his usual output, so we should see 25+ minutes for Harper in this.
He's hit 2+ assists in his last eight games, and shouldn't have any problems doing so again.
Leg 3 - Devin Vassell 2+ Assists
Expect big minutes for Vassell, potentially as much as 38 as he does the defensive job on SGA.
Certainly not known for his playmaking, but Vassell is a strong decision maker for the Spurs on the offensive end, and has recorded 2+ assists in 16 of his 17 post-season games, averaging 2.6 dimes in the playoffs.
Same Game Multi
Caruso 10+ Points / Harper 2+ Assists / Vassell 2+ Assists = $3.10
Value Bet
I think they go right away from Isaiah Hartenstein in Game 7, with his plus-minus when Wemby is on the floor sitting at -43 from the 49 minutes they've shared the court together.
Enter Jaylin Williams. His ability to stretch the floor changes OKC's offensive structure, and he enters Game 7 off the back of recording nine rebounds.
The injection in minutes for Jaylin Williams should see him around the six-rebound mark. Assuming he plays 20+ in Game 7, I like this price on offer.
