BlueBet previews the 2018 NFL Super Bowl action below. Read on for our best bets for the game and an overview of each team.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Date: Monday 10:30 am (AEDT). Venue: Minnesota
Odds: Patriots $1.48, Eagles $2.74
The Patriots and Eagles square for the Super Bowl in Minnesota this Monday.
Form Guide:
The Philadelphia Eagles have reached their first Super Bowl since 2005. Ironically, they played the Patriots in that game as they face them once again in 2018. Throughout this postseason, the Eagles have been the underdogs despite two home games. Well they proved the odds wrong as the beat the Falcons by 5 points and thrashed the Vikings by 31 points. QB Nick Foles has stood up in the absence of Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, the defence is standing tall as they’ve allowed just 17 points in the two wins. That will be the key against Brady. They need to force early pressure and make Brady uncomfortable because that’s the only way they’ll win this matchup. Another key strength of the Eagles is the running game. Jay Ajaji and LeGarrette Blount will need to find space and keep the pressure off Nick Foles.
The Patriots are back into another Super Bowl and will be looking to defend their title. Last season, they staged an incredible 28-3 comeback and beat the Falcons 34-28 in Overtime. They’re the last team to win back to back Super Bowls and one of those was against the Eagles in 2005. In this matchup, Tom Brady is obviously the key. He’ll face another tough defence and they did struggle against the Jaguars last game before another epic comeback. The Pats defence is also concerning as they’re weak against the passing game. But with Brady under centre, anything seems achievable for this organisation. In another storyline, the Patriots will be looking to send off coaches Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels as they start head coaching duties next season.
Head to Head Record:
As mentioned, these two sides met in the 2005 Super Bowl and the Patriots won 24-21 on that occasion. Their last meeting was in 2015 and the Eagles won on the road 35-28. But in the last 6 meetings, the Patriots have won 4 of them.
Point Spread:
In the main point spread, the Patriots are favourites by 3.5 points. But the Eagles will be confident of beating this line. They have won both playoff games as an underdog and won’t fear the Patriots. They have the defence to keep this close and we can’t see a blowout in any direction. The Eagles also covered the line in the last meeting as they won by 7 points. The margin in the last Super Bowl between the Eagles and Patriots was 3 points so we can see a similar result in Minnesota this Monday.
Best bet: Eagles +3.5 ($2.12)
Total Points:
We’re expecting a high scoring game in this matchup. The dome will be kind to the passing game and both these sides love to air it out. The Patriots average 28 points per game this season and 280 passing yards per game. The Eagles are a bit lower at 240 passing yards but also average 28 points per game with a better running game. In addition, the over total is 4-2 in this matchup and the winning side from the last 3 meetings has scored over 30 points. So we’ll be taking the Over 48.5 points market.
Best bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.96)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer:
For the Eagles, Blount is a massive value bet as he’s scored in both playoff victories. He gets carries near the endzone and $3.20 is under the odds. For the Patriots, James White is another running back that can find the endzone. He has also scored in both playoff wins for the Pats and scored twice in the Super Bowl last season.
Best bets: James White ($2.75) and LeGarrette Blount ($3.20)
MVP:
Since 2000, the MVP award has been won by a Quarterback on 11 of 18 occasions (61%). So the odds are well in the favour of either Brady and Foles winning the MVP. Brady has won the MVP award 4 times in his career so that’s pretty hard to back against.
Best bet: Tom Brady ($1.60)
Tip:
Patriots WIN ($1.48)
In the end, the Patriots are comfortable favourites and the difference in this matchup is Brady. He’s experienced in the Super Bowl and hard to bet against him in these type of games. They also have Gronk back from concussion after he left the Jaguars win early and he's Brady's favourite target. The extra motivation with offensive and defensive coordinators leaving the team after this game is another reason to back the Pats. The Eagles have been a great team all season but the question is whether Foles can out-play Brady in this game. We can't see that happening and we’ll be backing the Patriots to win the Super Bowl in 2018.
