Here is Michael Sullivan's comprehensive 2017 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview.
Proven top quality performer who ran favourite in the Cup last year. I doubt he is going as well as he was when finishing third then and still think is a question mark at 3200m. The counter to that is you are getting $26 this year and has D Lane in the saddle and at those odds he could be some value.
He is the defending champion, Cup favourite and clearly our worst result at Bluebet. His win in the JRA Trophy suggested he had returned in fine form and then put in a flat run in the Bart Cummings. Team Williams know how to set them for Grand Final day and he will be there when it counts. Obvious winning chance.
Should be super fit after running in both the Caulfield Cup and giving Winx fans a massive scare in the Cox Plate. That was a superb weight for age performance and if he runs out the two miles he is probably the class horse of the field. Master trainer Darren Weir and in form Blake Shinn aboard are both massive ticks too. Definite winning hope
French stayer who is in good form winning 4 of his last 5 and the trip shouldn’t be a concern. The French form has certainly stacked up in recent Americain and Dunaden winning the Cup in recent years. Am a little worried about what the French jockey I know nothing about does from gate 23 though. If gets the right run, can certainly be amongst the placegetters.
Caulfield Cup run had flashing lights on it when working home into sixth. The Caulfield Cup still holds as the best form race for this and his European form is excellent too. I like horses who have had a run in Australia before the Cup and has the big advantage of Hugh Bowman aboard. I think he is the horse to beat and I have him as top pick in an open Cup.
German stayer from the same camp who won the Cup with Protectionist. He had excellent form in Germany and America before being well beaten by Marmelo in France. He has barrier 24 and hasn’t had a run in Australia which are clear negatives. Has in form Kerrin McEvoy aboard which helps and while he certainly can win, I think there are better hopes.
Unlucky in the Caulfield Cup when ran a hot favourite and you have to respect that form coming in here. Trained by master Irish trainer Aidan O’Brian and drawn to get a soft run. He has to be some question mark at the 3200m though and I am not sure he represents a lot of value at $10. He can win but I will be looking at others.
This horse has been spruiked more than snake oil over the years and has never lived up to the hype. This is his third tilt at the Cup finishing 16th and 13th in previous years. There is no way I could back him on form but there has been money for him in recent days shortening from $151 to $61 at Bluebet. Team Williams are still kicking up for him but would be a leap of faith to back him.
Irish galloper who had little luck when beaten by Prince of Penzance in the Cup two years ago. Has only been very lightly raced since then and I don’t think he is going anywhere near as well as he was two years ago. I think as an 8yo now his chance may have passed and I am happy to risk him.
Imported stayer who is now with the powerful Hayes team. He was right in betting before being well beaten in the Caulfield Cup. He pulled up with the excuse of a hoof abscess but that isn’t really the preparation I am looking for in a Melbourne Cup. Would need to be at his very best to be in the finish here and I am happy to risk.
This 9yo trained by Chris Waller is having his fourth crack at the Cup where he has always runs well. He loves the track and the 3200m is his best trip. He was actually very impressive winning the Moonee Valley Cup last start so he is still going well even though getting on in years. I doubt he can win the race but he will put in another good solid performance and is a good hope to add value to the trifecta.
Another 9yo who has made the trip out from Ireland. He does have the benefit of having a run here although it was a fairly ordinary looking 12th in the Caulfield Cup. Was given none in this race last year when sat wide outside a strong speed. Will probably go forward and given them something to catch. Steve Baster is a good jockey who can judge the speed well but I doubt he can hold off the field here.
13. Big Duke ($21)
Good imported stayer has the master trainer Darren Weir and gun jockey Brenton Avdulla aboard which are both massive ticks. He hasn’t much luck this preparation with things going against him on the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup. He is a winner having put together a string of victories since coming to Australia. I think he is one of the roughies who has a genuine winning chance.
Irish stayer trained by Joseph O’Brien the son of legendary trainer Aidan. His form has only been fair of late at best and I hate backing English jockeys out here particularly when drawn wide like he is barrier 22. Can’t see it getting any favours and wouldn’t back it even if it did. Happy to leave him out.
15. Boom Time ($26)
The Caulfeld Cup winner comes into this race as a $26 outsider and while the general consensus is that it wasn’t a great Caulfield Cup, he still has to be some value at that price. He did have everything go his way that day and I think the real query with him is the 3200m. You can’t totally dismiss him given Caulfield Cup win but I think this is a step up that he mightn’t be ready for. If he wins, everyone will say he was big odds but I think the quote is right.
16. Gallante ($101)
Another one from Team Williams but it hard to see him winning on his form this Spring. Did win the Sydney Cup last year but hasn’t matched that form since. Does love the wet and if the forecast is wrong and the rain arrives he becomes some small hope. Otherwise not for me.
17. Libran ($41)
Imported stayer from the Chris Waller stable who put in his best performance in a long time when running second in the Moonee Valley Cup. He is probably going as well as he ever has but that is probably still short of what is required to win this. If he runs up to his best again in the Cup, he could sneak a place.
18. Nakeeta ($29)
UK galloper who won the Ebor which has been a good lead up to the Cup in the past. I am not convinced on that run he can win the Cup and is drawn wide to boot. Looks a bit one paced to be able to beat these but can wack away. Can be included in trifectas but I am looking elsewhere.
Very honest mare who put in a good performance to run second in the Caulfield Cup. She is a great little horse but and very popular but surely she has to be a big doubt at 3200m. She is so honest though that she will probably put in a very credible performance. Would be happy to see her win but I can’t see it happening.
He is a European raider down in the weights and punters have come for him big time at Bluebet this week. He has shortened right up to $13 with solid money coming for over the last two weeks. His run in the Herbert Power was very good and he should be peaking for this. Has top jockey Craig Williams on so have to concede he is among the top chances but I will be looking elsewhere for the winner. He is a must for exotics though.
High quality stayer from the UK who won the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot and then continued his solid form with two seconds in the UK. He only got into the field with the late withdrawal of John Snow. The wide draw makes it awkward for him and he doesn’t have the sprint of some of his rivals so will need to make a long run probably round the outside. Can win, maybe place more likely.
22. Rekindling ($14)
Irish stayer who has been brought over by Team Williams for this race after an impressive win the Curragh Cup in Ireland. He is only a 3yo so gets in with 51.5kg and should get a soft run with Corey Brown to ride from barrier 4. He has plenty of upside and if has thrived here can win the race, it is just whether this race might be a year too soon.
One of the few genuine locals in the field, she comes here after a very impressive win in the Bart Cummings and then things didn’t go her way in the Caulfield Cup. She will be ridden a lot quieter here and has a sprint to put herself in the race. I think she is one of the better chances in the race and will be including her in everything.
24. Cismontane ($41)
Won the Lexus Stakes on Saturday which has been a good form race for the Cup recently. Shortened from $201 to $41 at Bluebet after that but I doubt that form will hold up this year though and also think he is a big question mark at the 3200m. Will probably lead them round but not sure he can keep going like he did in the Lexus. Gai will have him rock hard fit though so if you have faith he can keep going, they will all have to go past him. Place chance at best for me though
Michael Sullivan's 3017 Melbourne Cup Top 4
Top 4
Marmelo
Amelie’s Star
Almandin
Wall of Fire
Roughie
Big Duke
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