Caulfield Cup Preview (Group 1, 2400m)
One of the highlights of the Spring Carnival, the Caulfield Cup, will take place this Saturday in what is already being touted as one of the most hotly contested editions of the staying classic in recent times. A final field of 17 will face the starter as they vie for a share in $3 million in prizemoney.
With the unfortunate scratching of Admire Deus earlier in the week, a total of three international’s will line-up in this year’s Cup including the current favourite in Johannes Vermeer. The Lloyd Williams owned import currently sits at the top of betting at $4.20 with BlueBet, and has been met with good support following a slashing run in last week’s Caulfield Stakes (2000m). He produced the third fastest last 400/200m splits of the day there, coming wide on the turn, which was also against the pattern of the day. This five-year-old son of Galileo certainly looks to have a class edge, having mixed it with some of the best stayers in Europe including Highland Reel and Scottish, who of course ran second in last year’s Cup. Looks to get a fairly cushy run in behind the speed and unlike some of his rivals, possesses a dynamic turn of foot that could see him put the race to bed very quickly. Looks the one to beat.
The Darren Weir duo of Amelie’s Star and Humidor both occupy the second line of betting at $8.50 each of two. Amelie’s Star looks the clear second pick and gets another chance at a Group 1 after a dominant win in The Bart Cummings (2500m) a fortnight ago. In three runs at 2400m plus she’s never been beaten, so you can be assured that the distance is not a worry for her. May get back from a sticky gate but if Craig Williams can present this mare at the top of the straight, she looks mighty dangerous with just 51kg on her back. Looks a great each-way play at $8.50.
Humidor on the other hand has mixed his form this preparation. Looked like an absolute world-beater two runs back in the Makybe Diva (1600m) at Flemington, trouncing the likes of Hartnell and Black Heart Bart by almost 4 lengths. Then went around in the Turnbull where he raced a little flat running third behind the great mare Winx. Yet to win past 2000m and the expected slow-moderate tempo look queries for him as he looks to settle in the second half of the field.
Getting out to a very backable price now is the Kiwi mare Bonneval. Has been $6-$9.50 ever since she pulled up lame after running midfield in last week’s Caulfield Stakes. Trainer Murray Baker is adamant that the horse is back on track however, galloping her with jockey Kerrin McEvoy aboard on Wednesday morning. If so, she looks a major player, having already won multiple Group 1’s including a 4.5L demolition in this year’s Australian Oaks. Carries the SP profile out of the Caulfield Stakes and while she’s another who’ll get back in the run, she may just be a far superior stayer to many of her rivals.
Of the rest, Ventura Storm ($11.00) and Jon Snow ($12.00) are two runners not without chances. Ventura Storm chased hard behind Winx in the Turnbull, beating home Humidor and posting decent figures. Should be at peak fitness now getting out to a trip where he’s unbeaten. Drawn favorably and gets one of the best in the business in Damien Oliver aboard. Likewise Jon Snow. This talented Kiwi galloper battled on bravely in the Caulfield Stakes behind Gailo Chop and the favourite Johannes Vermeer. Looks the likely leader in the race and if he gets away with any cheap sectionals, look for him to be in the finish.
TIPS –
1. Johannes Vermeer
2. Amelie’s Star
3. Bonneval
4. Ventura Storm
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