Western Bulldogs v GWS
11 August, Etihad Stadium
Round 21 kicks off with a beauty. The Dogs have won their last four and GWS are coming off one of their best performances for the year. The Bulldogs jumped the young Lions and then found themselves behind late in the game. A six-goal last quarter saw them home. GWS brought great tackling intensity and blew Melbourne away. This will be a contested game. From there it’s the Giants scoring power against the Dogs team approach. The Dogs will try and restrict the Giants run, while GWS will attempt to nullify the Dogs quick hands in congestion. The final consideration is the selection table. Stringer is back for the Dogs but they lose Wood, while GWS get Patton and Greene back into their forward line but Smith is injured and Mumford has been suspended.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 2-2 in their last four at Etihad. Before that they won eight in a row there. GWS has lost both their games at Etihad this year to Carlton and St Kilda.
Head to Head Record
The last six have been win-loss between these two. The last two contests have been classics. GWS won by 2 points in round 6 and the Dogs won last year’s preliminary final by a goal.
Best Bet
Bulldogs win $2.05.
Sydney v Fremantle
12 August, SCG
Sydney continued their rise up the ladder with a convincingly win in Geelong, while Fremantle was also winners by defeating the Suns at home. What made Sydney’s win all the more impressive was Franklin was well held. He has had two quiet weeks and will be looking to atone for that against the Dockers. Fremantle deserved their victory and were well supported by emerging players Ryan, Tucker and Hughes. Fremantle has challenged Geelong and GWS on the road this year, but defeating Sydney in Sydney looks beyond them. McVeigh’s return down back has really helped Sydney’s defence and Reid’s ability to play forward and go back late in quarters is also important. Expect Sydney to win and win well.
Stadium Record
Sydney has won their last four at home. Three of those victories were by 7 goals or more. Since 2011, Fremantle has only played three times at the SCG, for 2 losses and 1 draw.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last 7 games with 3 wins each and a draw, however, Sydney won last year’s encounter by 90 points.
Best Bet
Sydney win 40+ $1.50.
Geelong v Richmond
12 August, Simonds Stadium
Geelong was well beaten by Sydney at home, while Richmond outplayed the Hawks at the MCG. Geelong is getting injuries and suspensions at the wrong time of year and they are important players. Joel Selwood won’t be back until finals, at best, and he joins Hawkins, Duncan, Blicavs, Cockatoo, McCarthy, Motlop and Menzel, who are all missing or just returning. Richmond is nearly at full strength, with the return of Riewoldt, and this is their chance to defeat the Cats who are vulnerable. Caddy was great last week and comes up against his old team. He is part of a mobile forward line, which doesn’t suit Geelong’s defence. At the other end, Taylor will probably play forward without Hawkins. Then there is Martin and Dangerfield. Scott Selwood might go to Martin, after Geelong chose not to tag Sloane and watched him rack them up. Dangerfield will be keen to support his teammates after watching from the stands last week. He needs a big one because his side is decimated.
Stadium Record
Geelong has won 15 of their last 17 at Simonds. Both those losses were against Sydney. Richmond has won 1 game at Simonds since 1990. It was in 2006. During that time they have lost 12 games there.
Head to Head Record
Cats like Tigers. Geelong has won the last 12, however, 4 of the last 5 victories have been by 10 points or less.
Best Bet
Richmond at the line -5.5 $1.90.
Brisbane v Gold Coast
12 August, Gabba
Gold Coast has dominated the news this week after deciding not to renew Eade’s coaching contract. They are coming off a loss to Fremantle and facing Brisbane, who challenged the Bulldogs for the second time this year. The Bulldogs kicked the first five goals of the game, but the young Lions didn’t give up. They led at three-quarter time, but like many young teams couldn’t sustain it. Gold Coast lost key playmaker Hall in the second quarter and never really looked like winning. With finals out of the question for both sides, this match is their biggest one for the year. Bragging rights are up for grabs and the Lions will be looking to repeat their round 1 performance. They have been aided by Ablett and Lynch’s absence who are both injured. I’m tipping Brisbane in a tight one, but funny things happen when coaches change mid-year.
Stadium Record
Brisbane is 2-7 at home this year. Their two wins were against Carlton and Fremantle. Gold Coast has only won 1 of their last 6 at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
In the last four seasons the ledger between these two is 4-3, Gold Coast’s way.
Best Bet
Brisbane at the line -13.5 $1.90.
Essendon v Adelaide
12 August, Etihad Stadium
Essendon just got over the line against arch rivals Carlton, while Adelaide smashed Port by 84 points. Essendon’s form has tapered the last few weeks. That bold run and carry has not been as pronounced and maybe teams have learnt how to stop them. Meanwhile, the Crows juggernaut was in top gear last week. They destroyed the Power and it could have been 100 points had they kicked straight. For Essendon to beat the red-hot Crows, they need to recapture their run and dare, and bring intense defensive pressure. Merrett’s suspension and Fantasia’s injuries are big blows as it leaves them one gun midfield down and one goalkicking option short. The Crows have no concerns about scoring, their main focus will be the middle of the ground. With Jacobs in good form, I expect them to match the Bombers and hurt them on the turnover.
Stadium Record
Essendon has had mixed results at Etihad this year and are 4-3 in 2017. Adelaide hasn’t played at Etihad this year. They were 1-2 there last year.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last three by 65, 82 and 112 points. They kicked 24 goals against Essendon earlier this year.
Best Bet
Adelaide win 40+ $3.10.
West Coast v Carlton
12 August, Domain Stadium
The Eagles lost in Melbourne yet again, while Carlton was brave yet again. West Coast battled St Kilda all afternoon, but couldn’t go on with it during the last quarter. Kennedy has been tremendous since his return and will get the resurgent Jones this week. Carlton reeled the Bombers in and went past them, but the young legs faded late and Essendon won a close one. The long ground won’t help their cause this week and West Coast has a history of inflicting heavy defeats against lowly-ranked travelling sides. Carlton has been brave all year but some of their worst performances have come on the road. This could be another one if they’re not careful. I expect the Eagles to control the middle of the ground and use the space to their advantage. Hopefully, Carlton finds enough spirit and energy to stay with them.
Stadium Record
West Coast has won their last two at Domain against Brisbane and Fremantle by 68 and 30 points. Carlton has won 1 of their last 5 at Domain. They last beat West Coast at Domain in 2013.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last two against Carlton, including a 7-point victory last year.
Best Bet
West Coast win 40+ $2.10.
Melbourne v St Kilda
13 August, MCG
Melbourne was never in the contest against GWS, while St Kilda withstood the Eagles. These two teams have been compared for the last few years. They are currently tenth and eleventh on the ladder, and only out of the eight by percentage. This is a huge game. Melbourne has the inside midfielders, but questions remain about their outside run, while St Kilda’s midfield is workman-like and they have key players at either ends. Melbourne defeated St Kilda in round 1 and that was their first win over them since the 2006 elimination final. They moved the ball in waves and kicked 16 goals to 7 after quarter-time. I can’t see that happening again. St Kilda will look to lock down their midfield and restrict the influence of Hibberd and Hunt. Meanwhile, Melbourne will be hoping Watts and Garlett are more influential up forward this week.
Stadium Record
Melbourne has won 3 of their last 4 at the MCG. They beat Port Adelaide, Carlton and Collingwood. St Kilda has won their last four at the MCG, however they have not played there this year.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne’s round 1 victory ended a fourteen game losing streak against the Saints. Interestingly, only six of those games were played at the MCG.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $2.45.
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
13 August, University of Tasmania Stadium
Hawthorn was comprehensively beaten by Richmond last week, while North Melbourne suffered a heavy defeat against Collingwood. Hawthorn’s loss ended their slim final’s hope and returns their focus to building for the future. North Melbourne was outgunned in the middle and only kicked seven goals for the day. Skipper, Ziebell, kicked five of them while playing hurt in the forward line. His performance reinforces his toughness while also adding another strong to his bow. Hawthorn welcome backs Hodge this week and his direction and leadership down back will be important. Hawthorn is always a tough proposition in Tasmania and except for last week, they are in good form. Their youth is good and at the moment ahead of North’s development. I expect them to beat the Roos in Tassie.
Stadium Record
It’s been a mixed bag for Hawthorn in Launceston this year. They have recorded 1 win, 1 loss and 1 draw. North hasn’t played in Launceston for five seasons. Their overall record there is 2-4.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won 7 of the last 8 against the Roos, including 39 and 9 point victories last year.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win 1-39 $2.15.
Port Adelaide v Collingwood
13 August, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide was smashed by Adelaide last week, while the Pies had a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. Port Adelaide was never in the contest and it was a week of soul-searching. Collingwood’s win was only soured by the suspension of Grundy and injuries to Wells and Greenwood. Port has to respond. They were beaten up by big brother. The inside fifty count was staggeringly lopsided and so was the scoreboard. They won’t have it all their own way because Collingwood is playing their best football for the year. Their midfield is controlling games and their forward line now has stability. Grundy’s absence will really hurt, especially considering Ryder’s season. Wingard’s return is important as he is a match-winner and can spark them. I also don’t know if Collingwood’s undersized defence can stop the powerful Dixon.
Stadium Record
Port is 6-4 at home this year, however two of those losses were against crosstown rivals the Crows. Collingwood has played at the Adelaide Oval three times for three losses.
Head to Head Record
Port has won the last three against Collingwood, including a 31-point victory earlier this year. After that game Buckley described the Power as the best opponent they have played in 2017.
Best Bet
Port half-time / full-time $1.67.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
