West Coast v Geelong
15 June, Domain Stadium
Both teams are coming off byes and enter this match with contrasting form. West Coast has lost their last three, while the Cats have won their last three. Much has been made about West Coast's lack of physicality and that they're too nice. Here's a chance to prove their resilience against one of the bravest and fearless leaders the game has seen; Joel Selwood. Along with Dangerfield they carry much of Geelong's hopes. The Cats recent victories have been based on pressure and intent. They will need to bring the heat again. Geelong doesn't have Hawkins but they have won important games in the past without him. Matches are often won in the middle, but the other factor is the delivery into the forward line. Both teams defend the long ball extremely well, so the team that lowers the eyes and uses the leading forward will create opportunities to score.
Stadium Record
West Coast has won 4 of 5 at Domain this year. Their last outing was an 8 point loss to the Giants. The Cats have won 3 of their last 5 at Domain, including a 42 point win against Fremantle this year.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won 3 of the last 4 against the Eagles. All four games were decided by more than seven goals.
Best Bet
West Coast win first quarter at home $1.92.
North Melbourne v St Kilda
16 June, Etihad Stadium
North is coming off a bye and currently sits fifteenth on the ladder, while St Kilda lost their third successive game by over six goals to the Crows. North has been competitive all year and have unearthed some young talent. Tarrant is a superb defender and is often overlooked when discussing the best fullbacks in the league. He could get a number of players as the Saints have forward options. The problem for St Kilda is their options are not in the best form. Bruce returned last week and was a lone hand up forward. St Kilda's other issue is their rising midfield has stagnated. They built their game on defensive pressure and run but it's dissipated. St Kilda has to respond. Not only have they lost their last three, but they haven't even won a quarter in any of those matches. Many expected this to be a rebuilding year for the Roos, but the Saints were set to attack finals. If they lose this their season is in real trouble.
Stadium Record
The Roos are 2-5 at Etihad this year. Their wins were against Carlton and Gold Coast. St Kilda was developing an impressive Etihad reputation, but they have only won 4 of 8 matches there this year.
Head to Head Record
North has won the last 6 against the Saints. They won last year’s encounters by 7 and 23 points.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $1.80.
Richmond v Sydney
17 June, MCG
Richmond enter this one fresh after a bye, while the Swans bullied the reigning premiers last week. The Tigers have been good all year. They have been bolder with the ball and taken the game on. This has also helped their defence with teams struggling to kick big scores against them. Sydney were brilliant against the Dogs. It started with them being ruthless at the ball and opposition and the rest fell into place. There are stars everywhere in the middle here: Martin, Cotchin, Kennedy, Hannebery, Prestia and Parker. Jack is now back after injury and he might run with someone. The key players at either end are just as appetising: Franklin, Rance, Riewoldt and Grundy. The difference might be the small forwards. Richmond has found a few this year with Butler, Bolton and Rioli all impacting games, while the likes of Papley and Haywood played their roles last week. This is a good test for both sides and it's anyone's game.
Stadium Record
Richmond has won 5 of their 6 games at the MCG this year. Their only defeat was a 2 point loss to the Dockers. In the last two seasons Sydney has played 5 times at the MCG for 2 wins.
Head to Head Record
Sydney smashed the Tigers by 113 points last year. Before that Richmond won 3 in a row against the Swans.
Best Bet
Richmond win $1.98.
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
17 June, Adelaide Oval
Port are coming off a disappointing loss to the Bombers, while Brisbane recorded their second win for the year, defeating Fremantle. The Power were outworked and blown away. It was not like them and they will be looking to respond. Brisbane were sensational and cut Fremantle open though the middle of the ground. Even though the Lions are back on the winners list, playing Port away from home is a massive task. Dayne Beams, Rockliff and Zorko are the stars in the middle. They will have to be at their best again to cover Port’s midfield numbers. Andrews’ size matches up against Dixon, but covering Robbie Gray and Wingard will challenge Robertson and Harwood. Hopefully Brisbane will be able to stay competitive for a period of time, but Port Adelaide has taken advantage of low ranking sides this year. Expect a lopsided score line here.
Stadium Record
Port are 3-2 at home this year. Their 3 wins were by over 50 points, while their 2 losses were by under three goals. Brisbane and the Adelaide Oval is not a good mix. They have played there four times and lost all four by a combined total of 415 points.
Head to Head Record
The Power has won 5 of the last 6 against the Lions. They played earlier this year and Port won by 83 points.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide has been good early in games, so first half handicap -26.5 $1.82.
Gold Coast v Carlton
17 June, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast moved to 5-6 after beating an undermanned Hawthorn, while the Blues defeated premiership favourites, the Giants, by a point. Gold Coast did what they should have against a wounded side. It was the Gary Ablett show. He is an amazing player, particularly given his age. May is the other player who deserves some recognition. He is hard to beat one-on-one and also sets up play. Interestingly, both players futures are in doubt at the end of the year. Carlton were fantastic and took their opportunities. It was a massive win for a young side. Can they back it up? Gold Coast are hard to beat at home. Liam Jones was brilliant down back after a maligned career up forward, and could get the dangerous Lynch. Ed Curnow could run with Ablett, while the rest of the midfield should go head-to-head. I like the Suns at home. They play with pace and dare, with the likes of Hall and Saad.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast has won 3 of their last 4 at home. They beat the Eagles, Cats and Hawks. Since the Suns inception the Blues are 1-2 at Metricon.
Head to Head Record
The Suns have won the last two against the Blues, including a 26 point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Gold Coast -17.5 $1.90.
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
18 June, Etihad Stadium
The Bulldogs were completely outplayed and out-bustled by the Swans last week, while Melbourne beat the Pies by 4 points in front of 70,000. The Swans targeted the Dogs even before the game, in particular Johannisen and Stringer. It worked because they only had 20 touches between them and no impact on the game. I won’t be surprised if the Demons pay close attention to Johannisen. His run and carry is important and he hadn’t been locked down like that before. Melbourne again played three quarters of football, but they were three good quarters. They had an even spread, with Petracca’s 18 touches and 3 goals the standout. This will be a battle within the contest. The Bulldogs pride themselves on contested footy and they have dropped off this year. Melbourne can match them in there. Melbourne’s form line is better, but the Dogs love Etihad. Surely the Bulldogs respond, led by Bontempelli who was below his best last week, but Melbourne won’t be scared. This could go either way.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs have won their last 8 at Etihad and are 5-0 there this year. Melbourne has split their last 6 at Etihad, which is a vast improvement on their previous run of 22 losses.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won 5 of the last 6 against the Demons, including a 32 point win last year.
Best Bet
Melbourne +12.5 $1.90.
Bye: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS and Hawthorn
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
