West Coast v Western Bulldogs
11 May, Domain Stadium
It is fourth versus fifth on Friday night and it is the first time the Eagles play the Dogs after last year’s finals defeat. The Eagles are coming off a superb win in Adelaide, while the Dogs reeled in Richmond to win another close one. This will be a fierce contest with the midfield battle pivotal. Mitchell, Priddis, Shuey, Gaff and Masten against Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Hunter and Dahlhaus. West Coast have strong forward options like Kennedy and Darling, while Cloke is still out and Adams played forward last week. His role this week might be to quell McGovern. Both teams have some in form medium sized players, such as Yeo and Wood. It looks a great matchup, but I’m loathed to go against the Eagles at home, especially with the Dogs injury list.
Stadium Record
The Eagles are dominant at home having won 25 of their last 28 at Domain. Their last lost was to the Bulldogs. That win was the Dogs only victory in their last 10 games at Domain.
Head to Head Record
The Dogs have won 4 of the last 6 against the Eagles. The victor has generally been the home team between these two, however last year’s stunning elimination final victory bucked the trend.
Best Bet
West Coast win 1-39 $2.20.
Hawthorn v Brisbane
11 May, University of Tasmania Stadium
The Hawks held on and recorded their second win for the season, while Brisbane fell to the bottom of the ladder after easily losing to Sydney. Hawthorn jumped the Demons and was completely outplayed in the third quarter, but did enough to win. Tom Mitchell has been solid in the midfield. He knows how to find the ball. Unfortunately, Birchall is out again and O’Meara’s knee is concerning. The honeymoon period is starting to fade at the Lions. They have lost their last 6 and the skipper’s injury is making matters worse. They have shown they can play well in patches, but beating Hawthorn in Tasmania looks beyond this young group.
Stadium Record
St Kilda ended Hawthorn’s 19 game winning streak in Launceston two weeks ago. Brisbane has played there 7 times for 1 win. That victory was in 2009.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won the last 7 against the Lions. All their victories were by 7 goals or more.
Best Bet
Brisbane +41.5 $1.90.
St Kilda v Carlton
11 May, Etihad Stadium
The Saints claimed the big scalp they were after last week by beating the Giants, while the Blues recorded successive wins. The Saints speed and ferocity was on display. Their young midfield is growing in statue and their forward line is dangerous. For all the speed and goals, there has been a significant recruit quietly doing the business at fullback; Brown. Carlton again gave great effort and commitment and they were rewarded. Casboult provides a strong target up forward and will probably get Brown. Even though the Blues are playing team football, I really like the Saints, particularly at Etihad. If it wasn’t for Joel Selwood and stray goalkicking in Perth, they could be 6-1 instead of 4-3.
Stadium Record
Since the start of 2016 the Saints are 12-7 at Etihad. Those 7 losses were to good teams. Carlton has split their last 6 games at Etihad. They lost their only game there this year to Gold Coast.
Head to Head Record
The Saints beat Carlton by 71 and 32 points last year. Before that the Blues won 4 in a row.
Best Bet
St Kilda line for the first quarter -6.5 $1.89.
GWS v Collingwood
13 May, Spotless Stadium
The Giants lost to St Kilda last week, while the Pies went down to Carlton. The Giants loss was compounded by more injuries. The medical room is filling up and their depth is being tested. Their backline is taking the biggest hit with Buntie, Kennedy and Haynes all out. It might not be such an issue this week as Collingwood’s forward line is not the most potent in the league. The Pies base their game around defensive pressure, yet we don’t see it every week. The Magpies midfield is good and has been bolstered by De Goey and Wells in recent weeks, however they need more than a firing midfield to knock over the Giants at home. Treloar’s absence will hurt.
Stadium Record
The Giants have won 2 of their last 5 at home. Both their wins were more than 90 points, while two of their losses were single digit figures. Collingwood has won all three games at Spotless, including last year’s 32 point victory.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood has never lost to the Giants in five matches. The closest result was an 8 point victory in 2014.
Best Bet
GWS win 1-39 $2.30.
Essendon v Geelong
13 May, MCG
Both teams lost last week interstate. The Bombers went down to Fremantle, while the Cats were beaten by the Suns. Essendon were swift and dangerous early and jumped the Dockers. The travel, heat and exhausting preparation probably had an effect as they fell away badly in the second half. Hurley was outstanding and will need to be again on Hawkins. Geelong’s coach brought up the word ‘mediocre’. Opposition teams are playing continuous football against the Cats and streaming out of defence. Geelong is struggling to restrict them in transition. Essendon’s heavy workload is compounded by a six day break, returning from a 30 degree day in Perth. The Cats should win against a tired Essendon, but they need a lift from their small forwards and rucks.
Stadium Record
The Bombers have won 3 of their last 4 at the MCG. Geelong has split their last six games at the MCG and is 1-1 there this year.
Head to Head Record
These teams have played each other 13 times since 2006. Geelong has won 12 of them, including the last six. Essendon’s only win during that time was by 4 points in 2011.
Best Bet
Geelong -23.5 $1.90.
Adelaide v Melbourne
13 May, Adelaide Oval
The previously undefeated Crows were smashed by North, while Melbourne had a disappointing loss to the Hawks last week. Adelaide was 64 points behind at quarter time and never recovered. They were outworked all over the ground. Maybe it served as a lesson for some of their players. Melbourne missed another opportunity losing to the Hawks. Expert commentators and past players have questioned Melbourne’s psychological scars having been unsuccessful for a period of time. Adelaide will start warm favourites and are lethal at home, but Melbourne have the midfield advantage. I don’t expect the Dees to win but there is no expectations wearing them down this week.
Stadium Record
The Crows have won 20 of their last 22 at the Adelaide Oval, and are 4 from 4 this year. Melbourne has a 40% winning record at the Adelaide Oval, which is decent for a traveling team.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won 4 of the last 5 against the Demons. They beat Melbourne by 22 points last year.
Best Bet
Melbourne +36.5 $1.90.
Richmond v Fremantle
14 May, SCG
Richmond jumped the Bulldogs and then went down in a close one, while Fremantle came from behind yet again to overrun the Bombers. After being comprehensively beaten by the Crows, the Tigers took on another competitor and just fell short. Rance was stoic in defence and will get McCarthy this week. Brad Hill played his best game for the Dockers and Taberner’s return was good. It seemed to release Kersten as well. The Dockers matchup alright against the Tigers in the middle and Hamling will take Riewoldt. If in doubt go the home team, but don’t be surprised if a fighting Fremantle push the highly fancied Tigers.
Stadium Record
Richmond has won their four games at the MCG this year. Their best win was against the Eagles by 11 points. The Dockers have won 4 of their last 5 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
These teams have split their last 4 games, with the away team winning on each occasion. Richmond won last year’s only encounter by 38 points.
Best Bet
Richmond win 1-39 $2.15.
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
14 May, Jiangwan Stadium
This historic match will be played in Shanghai. Port Adelaide led the China charge and Gold Coast joined them. The Suns are coming off a very good performance against the Cats, while Port was beaten at home by West Coast. Gold Coast found their groove and took the game on. They ran and passed the ball fluently. Swallow was great but is out again this week. Port Adelaide dominated the inside 50 count but could not put it on the scoreboard. No one knows what role the travel, conditions and weather will play in this game. All we can go on is past performances and Port has been more consistent this year with their 3 losses coming against Top 4 sides.
Stadium Record
Unless you’re interested in some amateur Chinese soccer results, there is obviously no stadium record for these teams.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has won the last 6 against the Suns. Gold Coast’s only victory was their first ever win in the AFL.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide win 1-39 $2.15.
North Melbourne v Sydney
14 May, Etihad Stadium
North shocked the football word with an impeccable first quarter. That set up a stunning win against the Crows, while Sydney recorded their first win for the year against Brisbane. North brought their A-game in terms of defensive pressure and the Crows didn’t match it. Waite was superb up forward after coming back from injury, but in typical fashion he got suspended and will be sorely missed this week. It was the Franklin show with 8 goals against the Lions. He once kicked 13 goals against the Roos, and looms as a key player once again. Tarrant is a quality defender and will make it hard for him to repeat his performance. This is a fascinating game and the result could go either way. The general rule of thumb is to go with the home side, but the Swans don’t mind Etihad.
Stadium Record
North was victorious in their last outing at Etihad and that broke a 5 game losing streak. Conversely, Sydney lost their last game at Etihad and that broke a 10 game winning streak.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won 11 of the last 13 against North. More recently the record is 4-2. Sydney won both games last year by 9 and 26 points.
Best Bet
Sydney win $2.00.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
