St Kilda v GWS
5 May, Etihad Stadium
The Saints are back to 3-3 after disposing of Hawthorn, while it took the Giants five weeks to move from bottom of the ladder to second. St Kilda controlled the game and then opened Hawthorn up in the third quarter through speed and accuracy. The Giants played a classic against the Dogs and won a thriller. It was a different win for GWS. It was gritty, determined and combative. This game will be a blend of speed from two fast teams and pressure around the contest. GWS has more midfield depth and firepower especially with Coniglio’s return, while St Kilda’s forward line will test the Giants who have lost Haynes, but regain Davis. The Saints have tested good teams, but are yet to knock one over this year.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 2-2 at Etihad this year. The Giants won their 3 matches at Etihad last year by 37, 27 and 47 points.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last 3 against the Saints, including a 47 point victory at Etihad last year.
Best Bet
St Kilda start games well and Giants coming off a brutal contest, Saints win first quarter $2.23.
North Melbourne v Adelaide
6 May, Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne notched their first win of the year against the Suns, while the Adelaide bus kept rolling on. The Crows were tested early as Richmond maintained possession, but after quarter time it was an avalanche. If the premiership was played tomorrow Adelaide would win, but it is a long season for a reason. North was rewarded after some near misses this year. Brown kicked a career high six goals. Adelaide expect to win any game they play at the moment, irrelevant of opposition or venue. The Kangaroos have shown they are up for a fight, but this one is out of their weight division.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne was outclassed by the Giants during their only outing in Hobart this year. Adelaide has only played there once. It was a 7 point loss in 2014.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide won both contests last year, including a 62 point thumping in the elimination final. Both those games were played in Adelaide.
Best Bet
Adelaide win 40+ $2.00.
Collingwood v Carlton
6 May, MCG
It might be a cliché but it is oh so true; a week is a long time in football. After a week of pressure and questions the Pies outplayed the Cats, while Carlton defeated the Swans. They were two big upsets and the most pleasing aspect was the style of football. Collingwood kicked goals instead of points, they had multiple options, Moore was good and Greenwood shut down Selwood. Carlton took their opportunities, belief grew and they overcame injuries. These two arch rivals head to the MCG with some confidence and a chance for successive wins. Collingwood’s midfield is extremely strong and if their forward line operates like last week they should defeat the Blues.
Stadium Record
Collingwood’s win over Geelong ended a 5 game losing streak at the MCG. Carlton has won their last two at the MCG, beating Sydney and Essendon.
Head to Head Record
The Pies have won 7 of the last 8 against the Blues. Last year they split their games and both were decided by less than 3 goals.
Best Bet
Collingwood win 1-39 $2.15.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
6 May, Adelaide Oval
It is fifth versus sixth and both teams are coming off wins. Port Adelaide has been very impressive this year. Their two losses were against the two top teams and they were in those games. West Coast reaffirmed their stance at home, but they are away this week. Port will not fall for the same trap the Dockers did by kicking the ball long and high into their forward line. McGovern had a field day intercepting marks. Kennedy looms at the other end and Port will take a team approach to stop him. Both forward lines are dangerous, so whoever gets the most effective use forward will be hard to beat. Port’s ascendency in the ruck will help their midfielders and it might be enough for a home victory.
Stadium Record
Port has won 2 of their 3 games at the Adelaide Oval this year. Their wins were by 90 and 89 points. Remarkedly, West Coast has an 80% winning record at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last two by 8 and 10 points against Port. Both those games were played at the Adelaide Oval.
Best Bet
West Coast like playing in Adelaide, West Coast +19.5 $1.90.
Gold Coast v Geelong
6 May, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast is 2-4, while the Cats suffered their first defeat against the Pies last week. The Suns were in the hunt against the Kangaroos with Ablett reminding the competition just how good he is. 45 touches and 18 clearances would have worried his old team. Geelong had a bad one against Collingwood. Selwood was tagged out of the game, Dangerfield wasn’t as clean as he would have liked and Hawkins was beaten. The Cats are third on the ladder, but are not playing their best footy and the Suns are hard to beat at home. The Cats probably win, but it isn’t a certainty, especially with May, Swallow and Kolodjashnij all returning.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast has lost 4 of their last 5 home games. That victory was against the Hawks. Geelong has only played there once since 2012. It was a 40 point loss in 2014.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won 6 of the 7 games between these teams. They won last year’s only encounter by 120 points.
Best Bet
Gold Coast +18.5 $1.90.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
6 May, Etihad Stadium
Both these teams lost last week, yet still remain in the top eight. The Dogs probably played their best game for the season as they hunted the GWS. They were without a specialised ruckman, no Liberatore for the last quarter and playing away from home. Richmond went to Adelaide with a game plan and came up short. They were blown away in 60 minutes. The Dogs will be a different proposition. They don’t have the goalkicking power, but when they hunt they are extremely hard to beat. Richmond’s small forwards won’t worry them and the Dogs can match Richmond’s star midfielders, especially with Presita and Nankervis out. Expect the Bulldogs to win at home.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs have won their last 6 at Etihad, including wins against Brisbane, North Melbourne and Sydney this year. Richmond lost both their games at Etihad last year to the Dogs and Crows.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last 3 against the Tigers by 10, 19 and 2 points.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs win 1-39 $2.15.
Sydney v Brisbane
7 May, SCG
Sydney are last and Brisbane are third last on the ladder. The Swans are still yet to win a game this year. They have been hampered by injuries and form all year. Last week they added outworked to their problems. They must beat a young and inconsistent Brisbane. The Lions were jumped by a strong Port Adelaide and were never in the contest. They will have games like that, but they have showed they can complete for halves and quarters. Expect Sydney’s senior players to take control of this one and register their first win of the year. Surely, a team with Franklin, Parker, Kennedy and Hannebery cannot start the season 0-7. Dayne Beams will be sorely missed by the Lions.
Stadium Record
The SCG was a graveyard for visiting teams, but this year the away team has beaten the Swans three times. Since 2002 Brisbane has only 1 win at the SCG in 9 attempts. That win was by 8 points in 2009.
Head to Head Record
The Swans have won the last 9 against Brisbane. All of those victories were beyond 3 goals, except last year when Sydney just got over the line by 3 points.
Best Bet
Sydney win 1-39 $2.75.
Hawthorn v Melbourne
7 May, MCG
Hawthorn are second last on the ladder, while Melbourne are in the mix at 3-3. Hawthorn suffered the third defeat by more than 12 goals in four weeks. Ageing warriors, form issues, departing champions and inexperienced youth is giving Clarkson headaches. They are able to stay in games, but not for four quarters. Opposition teams are relishing the chance to dish it back to the once mighty and it’s Melbourne’s turn. Lewis will take centre stage against his old team and he will be ably supported by Jones, Viney, Vince, Oliver, Petracca and Watts. Melbourne should be too classy for the Hawks, even with Rioli and Birchall back.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn’s win over the Eagles a fortnight ago ended a 5 game losing streak. Melbourne are 1-2 at the MCG this year. They beat Carlton, but lost to Fremantle and Richmond.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne beat the Hawks late last year by 29 points. The victory ended a 13 game losing streak that dated back to 2007.
Best Bet
Melbourne -12.5 $1.90.
Fremantle v Essendon
7 May, Domain Stadium
The Dockers lost the derby last week, while Essendon went down to Melbourne. Fremantle were outclassed when the heat was on. Stephen Hill’s ball delivery and penetration was missed and will be missed again. Essendon looked sluggish and were overrun in the second half against the Demons. Daniher’s goalkicking woes reared its ugly head again. This is vital game with both teams sitting just outside the top eight. The winner moves to 4-3, while the loser will be 3-4. The midfield looks pretty even and both forward lines are limited. Always better off sticking with the home team when the contest is tight.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 2-2 at home this year, having played some good teams at Domain. The Bombers have lost their last five at Domain by an average of more than 9 goals.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers have won the last three by 79, 28 and 53 points. Interestingly, the last six games between these teams has been in Perth.
Best Bet
Fremantle win 1-39 $2.20.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
