Our best bet across Saturday's AFL action is the Demons vs Bulldogs Over 183.5 Points / Smith 30+ Disposals / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Dudley 1+ Goals Multi at $4.50, with eight of the last nine games between Melbourne and the Bulldogs going over and Bailey Smith averaging 32.3 disposals per game this season.
Although the ten teams in the finals are locked in, it still shapes as a big Saturday of footy with the majority of the top-ten shaped from the outcomes of these games.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers
Leg 1 - Isaiah Dudley 1+ Goals
Big game by Isaiah Dudley against the Crows last week kicking three goals, and the small forward has been in good touch for the Dockers.
Dudley has kicked eight goals from his last five games, including multiple goals in his last two, and he's been consistent all season.
From his 22 games in 2026, Dudley has kicked at least one goal in 18 of those games, going at an 82% conversion rate.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs
Leg 2 - Over 183.5 Total Points
Melbourne is one of the biggest overs teams this season, while the Dogs are the complete opposite. But the way the Demons play tends to skew these strong unders teams, as we saw last week when they smashed the Power.
At the MCG this season, 73% of Melbourne's 11 games have gone over the total points line, and in recent times their scoring is high. Six of their last seven games have gone overs with an average total points of 200.3, with the Demons playing in the highest scoring games over this stretch.
Eight of the last nine games between these two teams have gone over the total points, and although it went under earlier this year the total points did land on 183. We think we'll see it push 200 on this occasion.
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers
Leg 3 - Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals
Did we see what Hugo Garcia, Jack Macrae and Max Hall did against this Richmond midfield last week? Or what about Rankine and Dawson the week prior? We can even look back another week to see Harley Reid have 34 against Richmond.
Bailey Smith could have 30 disposals against this Tigers outfit before we hit three-quarter time.
Averaging 32.3 disposals per game, Smith has hit 30+ disposals in 16 of his 21 games this season, while recording 34 disposals against Richmond the last time he played them last year.
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants
Leg 4 - Izak Rankine 25+ Disposals
He is absolutely airborne lately and I don't see the Giants slowing him down.
From his last seven games, Rankine is averaging 29.7 disposals per game, hitting 25+ disposals in six of those games.
Prolific ball winners have played well against the Giants recently. Matt Rowell had 40 in Round 22, Errol Gulden 41 and Chad Warner 32 in Round 20, while three Cats had 30+ disposals in Round 18. Rankine is primed for another big one.
