Alex De Minaur will face world number one Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-final, and although the Australian trails the head-to-head 5-0, he has played well against the Spaniard on all five occasions.
LEG 1 – Learner Tien To Win A Set
Learner Tien has caused Daniil Medvedev plenty of issues over the past 12 months due to his unique style, and although Alexander Zverev should have fewer problems than the Russian, this won’t be regulation for the German.
The American has played Zverev twice in the last 12 months, with Tien winning their hard-court battle in Acapulco, while the German was too good on clay — which we won’t read too heavily into given Tien’s poor record on the surface.
Zverev has beaten two top-50 players consecutively at a major in straight sets just once in the past four and a half years. He knocked off Cerundolo in straights last round, but I don’t see him hitting Tien off the court this easily.
LEG 2 – Alcaraz vs De Minaur Over 9.5 Games First Set
Somewhat of an obscure market, but I expect the Australian to come out all guns blazing here, with De Minaur arguably playing the best tennis of his career at this Australian Open.
The career record sits at 5-0 in Alcaraz’s favour, but none of those matches have been complete whitewashes. De Minaur would much prefer to face Alcaraz than Sinner due to the more erratic nature of the Spaniard.
Across their five meetings, all five first sets have gone over 9.5 total games, including three that reached 7-5 or a tiebreak, with the Australian winning one of them. Two of Alcaraz’s four first sets at this Australian Open have gone to tiebreakers — there’s a big chance we see another here.
LEG 3 – Iva Jovic Over 5.5 Games
The 18-year-old has been one of the stories of this Australian Open and she will trouble Sabalenka, who has been doing enough to win but hasn’t looked at her best so far.
Of all quarter-finalists, Iva Jovic has the best service plus return points won percentage at 123.4%, with Sabalenka sitting at 115% by comparison.
Against top-50 opposition at hard-court majors, Sabalenka has conceded over 5.5 games in 10 of her last 11 matches, with the majority of those going well over the total. The way Jovic is playing, this won’t be easy for Sabalenka, assuming the American can keep her nerves in check.
