Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Round 23 clash between the Canberra Raiders and Newcastle Knights is the Away Team Under 23.5 / Young to Score / Savage to Score Same Game Multi at $7.75, with Newcastle scoring 24 points or less in six of their last seven matches and both wingers in strong form heading into Indigenous Round.
Two teams vying for top-eight contention clash in Round 23 of the NRL on Sunday, with the Raiders hosting the Knights in Canberra.
Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights
Newcastle sit in sixth, though their position in the top eight is far from secure with just two points separating them from ninth place.
Canberra are several notches back in 11th, though a strong run to close out the season could still see them nab a playoff spot.
Each have been in mixed form. The Raiders were flying with four straight wins across July, until a heavy loss to the Panthers last weekend brought them crashing down to earth.
For the Knights, they come into Round 23 off the back of a comfortable win over the Broncos, before which they lost three in a row, all against top-eight teams, by a margin of two points or less.
Leg 1 - Away Team Under 23.5 Points
This is one of those pick 'em matches where tipping a winner feels like a fool's errand.
However, there is a clear trend worth getting behind, and that's the Knights' attacking output.
Barring their defeat of the Broncos last week, clearly one of the competition's weaker sides, Newcastle have scored 24 points or less in each of their last six matches.
Three of these were victories, so it's not just in defeat that the Knights are kept contained. They simply find themselves in low-scoring grinds regularly.
Leg 2 - Dominic Young to Score
When the Knights do score, it's often through Young.
The big winger has crossed over in three of his last four matches, taking him to 17 tries from 20 matches in 2026.
When these two sides met earlier in the season, Young had a field day, picking up a second-half brace as he capitalised on some leaky edge defence.
Leg 3 - Xavier Savage to Score
Savage has been a big part of the Raiders' recent run of form, with the winger scoring five times in his last seven matches.
He's a proud indigenous player too, so with this round being Indigenous Round, he should have a little extra about him on Sunday.
With no Savelio Tamale on the field for Canberra, Savage can expect to see more ball and have his chances.
Same Game Multi
Away Team Under 23.5 / Young to Score / Savage to Score = $7.75
Value Bet
Tipping a winner in a match this close is a risky call, but the Knights are good value here at $3.35.
Their form isn't as strong as Canberra's in terms of results. However, if you dive into each match, you'll see they've been performing against opponents of much higher calibre.
Two of the Raiders' four recent wins have come against cellar-dweller teams in the Dragons and Tigers. Meanwhile, the Knights came within a whisker of beating top-four teams the Roosters and Sharks.
Back the visitors to find a way to a result here.
