Our best bet for Thursday's AFL clash between the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne is the Kangaroos +21.5 / Parker 25+ Disposals / Jones 1+ Goals / Freijah 15+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.10, with North Melbourne covering the line in eight of their ten games at Marvel Stadium this season and the Bulldogs winning as favourites at just 33%.
The Western Bulldogs can lock away a wildcard spot as they enter Thursday night football as red-hot favourites against North Melbourne.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
If the Bulldogs walk away with a win on Thursday night as red-hot favourites, they just about lock away a wildcard spot, but can the Kangaroos spoil the party?
North Melbourne challenged the Hawks in Tasmania last week, while the Bulldogs only managed five goals against the Dockers over in the west.
The Bulldogs have won the last nine against North Melbourne, but the Kangaroos have played well at Marvel Stadium this season. Can they cause an upset in Thursday night football?
Leg 1 - North Melbourne +21.5
The recent record for the Bulldogs against North Melbourne is the key reason behind this line, winning their last nine matchups, but I really think the Kangaroos could cause a big upset here.
North Melbourne's record at Marvel Stadium is strong this year, with a 6-4 win-loss and covering the line in eight of their ten games at the ground. As underdogs, that coverage rate jumps to 86%, failing to cover only in their recent matchup with St Kilda despite having plenty of chances.
As for the Western Bulldogs, they have underperformed when favourites this year with just a 33% coverage rate from nine games as favourite, including covering just twice from their seven games at Marvel as favourite.
The Kangaroos have covered in four of their last five games against the Bulldogs. Are they a chance to put an end to Bulldogs' dominance over them?
Leg 2 - Arthur Jones 1+ Goals
Missed out last week but did have a chance late. Fair to say 38 inside 50s for the Western Bulldogs didn't help Arthur Jones.
Jones finished with two behinds, the equal most scoring shots for the Bulldogs, and there should be many more entries in this game against the Kangaroos and more chances for Jones at Naughton's feet.
He has kicked a goal in 12 of his last 14 games this season and hasn't missed out twice in a row. Should be hitting the scoreboard.
Leg 3 - Luke Parker 25+ Disposals
Midfield or down back. Doesn't matter for Luke Parker.
The veteran is putting together a strong year, averaging 25.4 disposals per game as a designated kicker down back, but when thrown into the midfield against Hawthorn last week he still found the footy 27 times.
He has hit 25+ disposals in six of his last seven games, and if he returns down back in this he'll be pushing close to 30 disposals against a team that concedes plenty of football to defenders. Karl Worner and Oscar McDonald both nearly recorded career-high disposal games last week as evidence of that.
Leg 4 - Joel Freijah 15+ Disposals
Has been an underwhelming season for Freijah, but he's still good enough to hit 15+ disposals and loves playing at Marvel.
Freijah has averaged 19.2 disposals from his 11 games at the ground this year, hitting 15+ in ten of those games.
He's had some big games against North Melbourne, with 28 disposals in Round 1 last year and 29 at the end of 2024.
Same Game Multi
Kangaroos +21.5 / Parker 25+ Disposals / Jones 1+ Goals / Freijah 15+ Disposals = $5.10
