2025 NRL Semi Finals Betting Predictions
After an epic 1st week of finals, the semi finals figure to be just as good. First up, we have the Raiders looking to rebound against the Sharks. Then, the Panthers and Bulldogs go to battle on Sunday afternoon footy.
Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Cronulla Sharks (5th)
After one of the greatest finals in recent NRL history, the Raiders will have to dust themselves off and get back on track against the Sharks at GIO Stadium. Canberra went down against the Broncos last week, 29-28. They were up 28-12 with around 25 minutes to go, so they need to improve their finishing if that also happens against the Sharks.
The Raiders were sloppy with the ball, finishing with a 72% completion rate and made 67 missed tackles. So there are a lot of areas for the Raiders to improve on going into this semi-final. Luckily, they don't have any major injuries after the loss and will likely go with the same 17.
In the player props, Ethan Strange is on fire. He's scored a try in 4 straight games, and that includes a beauty last week against the Broncos. Weekes also had a great game against Brisbane, scoring twice and has 3 in his last 3 games.
The Sharks outlasted the Roosters 20-10 last week and head to Canberra with a lot of confidence. Ronaldo Mulitalo bagged a double for the home side and Toby Rudolf capped off the win with a rare try with 5 minutes to go.
In the 20-10 win, the Sharks had a 79% completion rate and had 11 errors compared to 16 by the Roosters. But their tackling needs some improvement after 41 missed tackles. They will also need to overturn a poor record in Canberra, losing 5 of their last 6.
After 2 tries, Mulitalo is a great look in the anytime tryscorer markets. He's now scored 7 tries in his last 4 games. For a bit more value, Sione Katoa enjoys playing against Canberra, scoring in 4 of his last 5 against them.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 8-2 in their last 10 at Canberra Stadium. Cronulla are 1-4 in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Raiders are 7-3. The last met in Round 5 with the Raiders just wining 24-20.
Best Bet
I think the Raiders will find it tough after last week. They had to play Overtime and now play on a 6 day break. If they find themselves in-front in the 2nd half, it's hard to trust them after last week's failure. The Sharks have a settled team after last week's win over the Roosters and will love the underdog tag. So I think this should be a low scoring affair in a final. The Sharks gave up just 10 pts last week and have a good record against the Under. Canberra should be better defensively and night conditions should be tougher to score.
NRL Same Game Multi - Raiders v Sharks
Leg #1 - Sharks +8.5
I can see this being a close final. The last meeting was a 4 pt margin and as mentioned, the Raiders may struggle on a short week and playing in a brutal final. So I think the Sharks can cover for a bit of a safe play at +8.5 pts.
Leg #2 - Under 44.5 pts
I think scoring will be tough in night conditions in Canberra. The Under also has a 4-0 record when the Sharks are playing away finals.
Leg #3 - Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer
Mulitalo is on fire and should be hard to stop if he gets near the line. He's crossed the line 7 times in his last 4 games.
Same Game Multi
Sharks +8.5 / Under 44.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer = $6.75
Value Leg - Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer
Coming off 4 straight games with a try, it's hard to back against one of the Raiders best attacking threats to get over the line and make it 5 straight.
Canterbury Bulldogs (3rd) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)
The Doggies are coming off a brutal final in Melbourne. Not only did they lose 26-18 but they've lost some key players for this semi. Stephen Crichton has a foot injury, Viliame Kikau fractured his eye socket and Enari Tuala fractured his tibia. Just brutal.
So they've moved Burton to the centres, Sexton into halfback to partner Galvin. With so much team movement, it's hard to see their attack improving against a very strong Panthers side. Sexton was good when he came on against the Storm last week but Galvin struggled, which has been the story since moving to the Dogs.
In the tryscoring markets, I do like the look of Kiraz. He scored against the Storm last week and is always hard to stop near the line. Matt Burton also found the line last game and would love to get a try against his former side. It also helps that he'll play in the centres.
The Panthers travelled to Mount Smart last week and got the job done fairly easily, winning 24-8 against the Warriors. It keeps their hopes of a 5th straight Grand Final win alive and I wouldn't back against them.
Isaiah Papali'i, Brad Schneider, Casey McLean and Brian To'o all scored in the win over NZ. But their defence was impressive, conceding just 2pts in the 1st half and only 1 try for the entire final.
They've now won an incredible 13 straight finals since losing the 2020 GF. Starting fast is one of their keys as they've won the 1st half in 8 straight finals as well. Watch out for Brian To'o on the wing, he has an 8-1 record of scoring in a final when the Panthers are favoured.
They also love playing the Dogs, having won 8 of the last 10 games. The last clash was a non-contest as the Panthers rested all their starters so it's really 9-1 since the Dogs last beat them in 2019.
Stadium Record
In their last 5, the Dogs are 2-3. Penrith are 7-3 in their last 10.
Head to Head Record
Since 2019, the Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
It's hard to see the Panthers going down with the Doggies suffering so many injury issues in their finals loss against the Storm. But I prefer to go the Under. It's 7-1 when the Panthers are playing in a final and I think their defence will be far too strong for the Bulldogs. These two sides also played in a 8-6 clash back in Round 17.
NRL Same Game Multi - Bulldogs v Panthers
Leg #1 - Panthers -3.5
If Penrith win, I think the margin will be over 3.5 pts. They have the wood over the Dogs and will be eager to make it 14 straight finals victories.
Leg #2 - Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer
To'o has scored 3 tries in his last 3 games against the Dogs. He looms as the Panthers best bet to cross.
Leg #3 - Nathan Cleary 8+ Points
Cleary has scored over 8 points in 5 of his last 7 games and I don't think he'll give up the goalkicking this week after letting Edwards do the easy kicks last week.
Same Game Multi
Panthers -3.5 / Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer / Nathan Cleary 8+ Points = $3.40
Value Leg - Jacob Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer
When the Dogs are an underdog, Kiraz has a 6-0 record of scoring a try.
