This week's headline play is the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield, with Evaporate our Feature Race pick at 1 unit. Natural Fling heads our Quezette Stakes selections at 2.5 units, while Attica is our strongest Traders' Best Bet at 2 units in Rosehill Race 9.
Welcome back to betr's From the Trader's Desk. A slow start to our series last week unfortunately, but plenty of races to come this spring. Let's take a look at this week's feature races from across the country, the big bets we have laid early at betr, and who our traders think are worth a wager this weekend.
Feature Races
Melbourne
P.B. Lawrence Stakes - Caulfield - 1400m G2
Interesting contest, with Cosmic Crusader coming off a dominant win in the Bletchingly where he got up along the inside in the worst going and ran away from them. Out to 1400m can only be a tick and boasts race fitness over his rivals. Hard to beat no doubt but 6/4 seems rock bottom. Private Eye won this race last year first up but comes off just the one trial this time. Desert Lightning very good first up last campaign when wide at Mornington but may need the run. Feroce similar, just not sure where he gets to from that draw. Evaporate I thought could be the one ready to go here and gets map advantage in a race where I don't think they'll go too solid. Happy to play Evaporate.
1 Unit - Evaporate
Vain Stakes - Caulfield - 1100m G3 - 3YOs
Good field of now three-year-old colts and geldings resuming here and keen to bet into the race. Closer To Free happy to take on along with Hard Kick who was found out last start. Tornado Valley had a good two-year-old campaign that likely just tapered off having been up for so long. Thought he trialled the house down and gets every possible here from the draw to stalk the speed. Confederation looks the prototype improving three-year-old from this yard and thought he has moved well in both trials. Not in love with the draw but any money for him and I want to make him a winner. Outspan is very similar. I thought he was the horse who could make the leap at three and will be strong late here.
1 Unit - Tornado Valley
0.6 Unit - Confederation
0.4 Unit - Outspan
Quezette Stakes - Caulfield - 1100m G3 - 3YOs
Capacity field for the girls and we get to see the spruiked horse Natural Fling back at the races. Gone super in her jump outs and from this draw with D Lane happy to be in her corner. That Next Episode form looks a step above and expecting the market to circle her. Gapping Lara Antipova and Riverina Lulu who I think come through weak lead-ups. If they overdo it in front, Ghana's Khan and Santa Barbara are the closers. Both exceptional hitting the line first up with things against. Happy to play both small with Natural Fling the primary bet.
2.5 Units - Natural Fling
0.5 Unit - Ghana's Khan
0.5 Unit - Santa Barbara
Sydney
The Rosebud - Rosehill - 1100m Listed - 3YOs
Moving to Sydney and the Rosebud headlines a ten-race card. Super field assembled here. Blue Door heads the early market for Bjorn Baker resuming off one run in the Autumn where she got the better of The Next Episode in the Kindergarten. Super form profile and looks to have come back well with just the one public trial. Scared of her but happy to be against first up with the idea she might be vulnerable late. Central Europe has trialled outstanding and gets the connections of Waller/McDonald. 1100m possibly a little sharp for him but looks set for a big campaign. Castillo King enormous on debut and trialled in good fashion since but this much harder. Will get an idea of his ability here. Royal Exile interests me a lot from the draw. Ideally suited over further I think but if he stalks the speed he has the strength to finish over the top if they can utilise the draw. Chilly Girl no knocks and will be in the firing line on speed. Not awfully keen to bet but would be siding with Central Europe and small Royal Exile.
1.5 Units - Central Europe
0.3 Unit - Royal Exile
Traders' Best Bets
Rosehill Race 2 - Thrill Hunter
Only got warm late when squeezed for room at Randwick first up. Looking for more ground and suited by the smaller field.
1 Unit - Thrill Hunter @ $6.50
Rosehill Race 4 - Kenmare Bay
Ran well for us last week, just given no hope with the ride. Sticking fat out to 1900m on the quick back up.
1 Unit - Kenmare Bay @ $6.00
Rosehill Race 6 - Beside the Ocean
Booking of McDonald a good pointer for this horse who usually goes well fresh. Tricky from the draw but in a race up for grabs happy to find him.
1 Unit - Beside the Ocean @ $6.50
Rosehill Race 9 - Attica
Althoff all the rage and easy to see why, getting home in good splits on an inside day. I'm banking on Attica just being the superior animal here off what have been two exceptional trials. Early money suggests ready to run well and late in the day down the middle may be advantageous. Monitor the track pattern but Attica the one I want to be with.
2 Units - Attica @ $3.80
Running Total: -13.5 Units
Big Bets
Where the money has been going across the weekend's major meetings.
Caulfield
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 1 No.9 | Educated | $2,000 | $3.40 |
| Race 5 No.3 | Hard Kick | $2,000 | $5.50 |
| Race 6 No.5 | Natural Fling | $9,000 | $3.00 |
| Race 7 No.7 | Cosmic Crusader | $5,000 | $2.50 |
Rosehill
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 2 No.3 | Steel Will | $5,000 | $1.80 |
| Race 6 No.13 | Street Artist | $1,000 | $4.00 |
| Race 8 No.6 | Blue Door | $2,000 | $4.00 |
