Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Round 24 clash between the Newcastle Knights and Gold Coast Titans is the Titans +12.5 / Under 50.5 / Young to Score Same Game Multi at $5.10, with nine of the Knights' last ten games decided by 1-12 points and Dominic Young scoring five tries in his last five matches.
Round 24 of the NRL continues on Sunday with what looks like a mismatch on paper, as the Knights host the Titans at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans
The Knights sit sixth on the ladder, with the next three weeks determining whether they finish top four or outside the eight.
They've won five of their last eight, though all three losses were close ones to top-eight teams.
For the Titans, it's grimmer reading: 15th on the ladder, two heavy defeats over the last fortnight.
Leg 1 - Titans +12.5
This may seem like an edgy market to tip, given Gold Coast lost by 22 and 36 in their last two outings.
However, the Titans' season has been defined by mercurial, unpredicted performances, with wins over the Panthers and Sea Eagles in the last two months, plus close losses to good sides like the Storm and Warriors earlier.
Combine this with the Knights' proclivity for close scraps, nine of their last ten have been decided by 1-12, and the Titans covering the spread here is great value.
Leg 2 - Under 50.5 Points
The Knights haven't scored more than 30 points since mid-May.
Gold Coast haven't been firing on attack either, scoring just 14 points across their last two.
Even if Newcastle do dominate this contest and win as forecast, there's a good chance the total still falls under 50.5 points.
Leg 3 - Dominic Young to Score
Young is back in try-scoring form after a mid-season lull.
The big Knights winger has five tries in his last five matches, including two in last week's win over the Raiders.
Last time these two sides met, he had a field day attacking down the Titans' weak edge defence, collecting three second-half tries.
Same Game Multi
Titans +12.5 / Under 50.5 / Young to Score = $5.10
Value Bet
Last round, this column tipped Newcastle to win 1-12 and it paid out handsomely.
Given the Knights' track record of close shaves, there's great value in sticking to this line of betting.
