It was only two weeks ago that the Brownlow Medal race looked over, but with two rounds left, we could have one of the best Brownlow finishes in a long time.
|
Pos |
Player |
Club |
Votes |
Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
N. Daicos |
Coll |
26.75 |
$2.80 |
|
2 |
M.Rowell |
GC |
25.25 |
$8.00 |
|
3 |
N.Anderson |
GC |
24.00 |
$5.00 |
|
4 |
C.Serong |
Fre |
23.75 |
$26 |
|
5 |
B.Smith |
Gee |
22.75 |
$12 |
|
=6 |
N.Wanganeen-Milera |
STK |
21.25 |
$18 |
|
=6 |
J.Dawson |
Adel |
21.25 |
$3.50 |
|
8 |
I.Heeney |
Syd |
21.00 |
$251 |
Best Bet
I say it every week – game in hand! The Suns also have a great run home with Port Adelaide and Essendon in their final two games of the season.
Three weeks ago we had Matt Rowell as our value bet at $26. Two weeks ago he was our best bet at $21. Now the Gold Coast Suns’ inside bull is once again our best bet at $8 – and it’s still great value.
Last year Rowell averaged just 23.4 disposals per game in a team that won 11 games, yet he polled 25 votes. He’s now up to 26.2 disposals per game, leads the league in clearances with a career-high average of 9, and plays in a team set to win either 16 or 17 games. I would have Rowell marked at $3.
Lay
Looking at the run home and the opportunities for the top eight (all of whom can still technically win it), from that group I think you can put a pen through Bailey Smith.
Seven of the top eight in the market could realistically poll in Round 23 and keep their chances alive heading into the final round. But with Geelong heading to the SCG to face Sydney, this is a bad match-up for Smith.
Geelong hasn’t beaten Sydney at the SCG since 2019, and I can’t see Smith being the one to drag them over the line. I’d prefer many others on the leaderboard at this price or longer.
Value
A great price for the Docker, who was our clear best-on-ground in Fremantle’s comeback win over Port Adelaide with 28 disposals and a goal, including 16 contested possessions and seven clearances.
Serong is a proven poller over the past two seasons. We have him one best-on-ground performance away from leader Nick Daicos. He finished equal 4th last year with 28 votes and equal 7th in 2023 with 24 votes.
He ranks second in the AFL for contested possessions, fits the Brownlow profile, and has polled well against Brisbane – earning 3 votes in each of their last two meetings and 8 votes across their last four clashes.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
