2025 NRL Round 23 Betting Predictions
Round 23 kicks off with a top 8 battle in Melbourne as the Storm host the Broncos. Here is a betting preview of every game this weekend in NRL Round 23.
Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (6th)
The Storm head into this one riding a two-game winning streak and fresh off a 16–10 win over the Eels in Round 22. They’ve been lightning hot all year - second on the ladder at 14–5 - and their attack speaks for itself, topping the NRL in both points and tries scored. Even on the road they’ve been deadly, going 7–3 away from home, and they’re rock solid in front of their own fans too at 7–2. With four wins in their last five and another chance to pile on the pressure, expect Melbourne’s potent offence to keep rolling against the Broncos.
The Broncos have been rolling lately, winning four of their last five and absolutely smashing the Rabbitohs 60–14 at Lang Park. They sit sixth on the table with an 11–8 record, and while their attack is no joke - fourth in the NRL for both points and tries. They’re rock-solid at home (7–3) but only 4–5 on the road, so facing the Storm away is a real test. Still, if they can keep their hands on the ball and keep the momentum going, they’ll be right in this one.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 9-1 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Brisbane are 3-12 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Storm hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
The Under has become a good bet with the Storm as Hughes is out injured. The Broncos also have a nice 7-0 record against the Under when they travel.
Same Game Multi
Melbourne have an impressive record against Brisbane at AAMI Park, winning 8 straight. They can also still finish 1st and that should be another motivating factor to win at home. Coates scored last week and has 4 tries in last 3 games. He would love to cross against his former team.
Under 46.5 / Melbourne Storm Win / Xavier Coates Anytime Goalscorer = $5.25
Newcastle Knights (14th) vs Penrith Panthers (5th)
The Knights have hit a rough patch, dropping four in a row and limping to a 44–18 loss against the Raiders in Canberra. They’re sitting 14th with a 6–13 record, and it’s clear why: they lead the league in errors and rank dead last for both points and tries scored. Home hasn’t been much better at 2–8, though they’ve managed a respectable 4–5 on the road. With just one win in their last five, it’ll be a tall order for Newcastle to turn things around against the Panthers.
The Panthers are flying high on an eight-game winning streak after squeezing past the Titans 30–26 in Round 22, thanks to Nathan Cleary. Sitting fifth with an 11–7 record, they’ve been rock-solid on the road (5–1–3) and solid at home (6–4). They’ve won all of their last five, and confidence is sky-high as they head into this clash with the Knights. Expect Penrith’s momentum to keep rolling against a struggling Newcastle side.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 2-8 in their last 10 games at McDonald Jones Stadium. Penrith are 5-0 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Panthers have won 4 games against the Knights.
Best Bet
The Panthers are looking for a top 4 finish and Newcastle are just playing for pride. So I Penrith make it 9 straight wins with a 2+ try victory.
Penrith Panthers -11.5 = $1.85
Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th)
The Raiders sit at the top of the ladder with a 16–4 record and despite a bump in the road - an 18–12 loss to the Dragons in Wollongong - they’ve still won four of their last five. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home (9–1) and strong on the road (7–3), all while keeping errors to a minimum (15th-fewest in the NRL) and firing up one of the league’s most potent attacks (third in both points and tries scored). Expect Canberra to shrug off that slip-up and bring the heat against the Sea Eagles.
The Sea Eagles have hit a rough patch, dropping their last two and coming off a 16-point loss to the Roosters at Brookvale. They’re sitting 10th on the ladder with a 9–10 record and have won three of their past five. Home has been solid at 6–4, but they’ve struggled away (3–6). Facing the red-hot Raiders won’t be easy, but if Manly can tighten up on the road and break this skid, they’ll be right in the mix.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are 6-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Sea Eagles have won 3 games against the Raiders.
Best Bet
The Over is an impressive 7-0 when the Raiders are at home and both sides have plenty of points in them.
St. George Illawarra Dragons (11th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (7th)
The Dragons are coming off a fun 18–12 win over the Raiders in Wollongong, snapping a three-game skid with that six-point victory. They’re sitting 11th on the ladder at 7–12, and while they’ve been solid at home (5–4), their away form (2–8) has let them down. With just one win in their last five, they’ll need to bring that energy from home into enemy territory if they’re going to trouble the Sharks.
The Sharks are buzzing right now, riding a four-game winning streak after smashing the Cowboys 32–12 at home. They’re sitting seventh on 12–8 for the season and have been almost unbeatable at Sharks Stadium (8–2), even if their away form (4–6) isn’t as flash. With four wins in their last five, they’ll fancy their chances against a Dragons side that’s been up and down. Expect Cronulla’s home crowd to help them keep the momentum rolling.
Stadium Record
St. George are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Kogarah. Cronulla are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Sharks are 10-0 against the Dragons.
Best Bet
The Sharks love playing the Dragons and have scored 31+ pts in their last 4 away meetings. But the Dragons are coming off a great win over the Raiders and should be able to score some points as well. So I like the Over, which is 5-0 when the Dragons are the home team.
Dolphins (8th) vs Sydney Roosters (9th)
The Dolphins are on a high, riding a two-game win streak after sneaking past the Warriors 20–18 in Round 22. Sitting eighth at 10–9, they’ve been rock-solid both home (5–4) and away (5–5), and their attack packs a punch - second in the NRL for both points and tries - while keeping errors to a minimum (16th-fewest). With three wins in their last five, look for Brisbane to lean on that firepower and keep the momentum rolling against a Roosters side that’ll be keen to spoil the party.
The Roosters come into this one sitting ninth on a 9–10 record after trouncing the Sea Eagles 20–4 in Round 22, but they’ve only managed two wins from their last five. They’ve actually been better away (5–4) than at home (4–6) this season. Offensively they’re solid - fifth in the NRL for both points and tries scored - but they’ve been sloppy with the ball, ranking third worst for errors. They’ll need to clean that up if they want to break the Dolphins’ momentum and climb the ladder.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 3-1 against the Dolphins since 2023.
Best Bet
The Over has saluted in the last 2 meetings and it's 5-1 when the Dolphins are at Suncorp too.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd) vs New Zealand Warriors (4th)
The Bulldogs sit third on the ladder with a solid 14–5 record, though they stumbled last time out, going down 28–14 to the Tigers at Western Sydney Stadium. They’ve been tough away (7–3) and even tougher at home (7–2), and have picked up three wins from their last five. Facing the Warriors, expect Canterbury’s balanced form and hungry mindset to make this a tight, high-energy clash.
The Warriors head into this one sitting fourth with a 12–7 record, but they’ve hit a bit of a bump - losing two in a row and coming off a 20–18 loss to the Dolphins at Mount Smart. They’ve been pretty consistent both home (6–4) and away (6–3), though their last five games have only yielded two wins. The good news? They’ve been rock-solid with ball security, ranking 17th in the NRL for errors (that’s one of the best marks in the league), so if they can shake off that skid and tighten up around the ruck, they’ll fancy their chances against a Bulldogs side that’s tough but beatable.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. New Zealand are 7-8 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Warriors have won 7 games against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Saturday night should be a tough and low scoring battle between these two and the Under is 7-1 in the Dogs last 8 games.
Gold Coast Titans (16th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (17th)
The Titans are struggling this season at 5–14 and just can’t seem to find their groove, dropping four of their last five - most recently a tight 30–26 loss to the Panthers at Robina Stadium. They’ve been off the pace both at home (2–7) and on the road (3–7), though they’ve done a decent job hanging onto the ball (14th in the NRL for fewest errors). Sitting bottom of the ladder in 16th, they’ll need something special to upset the Rabbitohs.
Souths are in a world of pain right now, sitting 17th on 6–14 and stuck on a nine-game losing skid after getting rolled 60–14 by the Broncos at Lang Park. Their attack has barely fired all year - 16th in both points and tries - and they’ve gone winless in their last five. They’ve been slightly better at home (4–6) than on the road (2–8), but with form this rough, it’s hard to see them turning it around against the Titans.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. South Sydney are 12-0 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Rabbitohs are 15-3 against the Titans since 2010.
Best Bet
Souths gave up 60 pts last week and their last 3 interstate games have gone Over the total. Should be friendly scoring conditions on the GC.
Parramatta Eels (15th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (13th)
The Eels are sitting 15th with a 6–13 record and just one win in their last five. They’ve been patchy at Bankwest (3–6) and shaky on the road (3–7), and they’re coming off a close 6-point loss to the Storm at Western Sydney Stadium. Which wasn't a bad effort considering the Storm are one of the premiership favs. If Moses can dominate this game like he did against the Broncos in Brisbane, the Eels should be able to get a sneaky win.
The Cowboys have been in a slump, winning just one of their last five and sitting 13th on 7–12 for the season. They took a hit in their last outing, falling 32–12 to the Sharks at Sharks Stadium. Their home form is middling (4–1–5) and they’ve struggled away (3–7), compounded by careless ball work - they’re second worst in the NRL for errors. If North Queensland can tighten up their handling and find some spark, they might sneak one here, but they’ll need a big turnaround to trouble the Eels.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Queensland are 1-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Eels hold a 6-4 record against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
The Eels are showing some form with Moses back in the lineup and I think they can take advantage of the Cowboys defensive woes.