Just when we thought it was Nick Daicos’ Brownlow to lose after Round 17, a group of contenders put up their hands with big performances in Round 18.
|
Pos |
Player |
Club |
Votes |
Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
N. Daicos |
Coll |
21.50 |
$2.60 |
|
2 |
N. Anderson |
GC |
19.75 |
$6.00 |
|
3 |
Z.Butters |
PA |
19.50 |
$41 |
|
4 |
C.Serong |
Fre |
18.50 |
$17 |
|
5 |
B. Smith |
Gee |
16.75 |
$6.50 |
|
=6 |
J.Dawson |
Ade |
16.25 |
$4.00 |
|
=6 |
M.Holmes |
Gee |
16.25 |
$81 |
|
8 |
H.McCluggage |
BL |
16.00 |
$71 |
Best Bet
Could Josh Daicos end up costing his brother a Brownlow? It’s unclear whether McRae pulls the trigger and throws Josh into the midfield off the back of that final quarter, but if he does, Nick may no longer be polling uncontested.
Noah Anderson was massive in Gold Coast’s win over Collingwood, taking the honours in what could be the Brownlow-defining game. With Touk Miller likely to miss a few weeks, one of Anderson’s biggest vote-sharing threats is out of the picture.
The Suns skipper should have more chances to poll late in the year. Midfielders post big numbers against the Crows, as Bontempelli showed on the weekend, and the Suns still have Richmond, Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide to come. He should be the clear second favourite.
Lay
Feel like he’s lost all momentum and won’t poll in the last month with losses in Round 15 and 18, a bye in Round 16 and missing in Round 17.
Geelong do have an incredible run home where they should win five of the last six games, but with how Smith has played in his last two games along with his poor polling history, I don’t think there’s any guarantee he’ll be the one polling the votes in those wins.
In fifth place on our leaderboard now with a bit of a buffer from him and the top-four, it will take an almighty effort for him to win from here.
Value
The Power might not win many more games, but is Zak Butters really a $41 chance? It’s rare to see a genuine contender on our leaderboard priced this far out.
He’s just two votes off the leader and one of four players in the breakaway pack.
With Rozee and Horne-Francis out, Port’s path gets tougher, but if they win even three of their last six, it’ll likely be on the back of Butters. That’s enough to keep him right in the hunt.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
