2025 NRL Round 11 Betting Predictions
Round 11 starts in Newcastle on Friday night footy with the Knights and Eels both desperate for a win to keep up with the top 8. Here is a preview of every game of the NRL this weekend.
Newcastle Knights (14th) vs Parramatta Eels (17th)
The Knights are set to face off against the Eels this week, and they’ll be looking to turn things around after a tough start to the season. Sitting 14th on the ladder with a 3-6 record, the Knights have struggled to find consistency, especially in attack — they’re ranked 17th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. Ball control has also been an issue, as they lead the league in errors. They’ve only managed one win in their last five games and are currently on a one-game losing streak, coming off a narrow 4-point loss to the Titans at home. Their record at Newcastle isn’t great (1-3), though they’ve been slightly better on the road (2-3). To make things harder, they’ll be without Greg Marzhew for this clash.
The Eels head into their clash with the Knights sitting at the bottom of the ladder with a 2-7 record and plenty of work to do. They’ve dropped their last two games, including a tight 4-point loss to the Dolphins at home. Offensively, the Eels have struggled — they’re ranked 15th in the NRL for both points and tries scored — and errors have also been a problem, with the team ranking 5th in the league for mistakes. Their form hasn’t been great either home (1-4) or away (1-3), but they have picked up two wins from their last five. On the bright side, they’ll be boosted by the return of Zac Lomax from injury, which could give them a bit of spark heading into this one.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Newcastle. Parramatta are 3-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Eels are 6-4 against the Knights.
Best Bet
Both teams have allowed 20+ pts in 7 of their last 10 games, so I can see the Over saluting. The total averages around 46 points in the last 18 games at this venue.
Same Game Multi
If the Over hits, these two try scorers should be able to find the line. Knights flyer Fletcher Sharpe has scored in 4 of his last 5 games and has 6 tries over that span. Addo-Carr didn't score last week but he has still scored 6 tries in 5 games.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (1st) vs Sydney Roosters (9th)
The Bulldogs are flying high at the top of the ladder with an impressive 8-1 record and come into their clash with the Roosters on a two-game winning streak. They’ve been dominant on both ends of the field, ranking 3rd in the NRL for points scored and 2nd for tries — clearly one of the most dangerous attacking teams this season. Their form has been rock solid, winning four of their last five, and they’re unbeaten at home (3-0) while also boasting a strong 5-1 record on the road. Last round, they took care of the Raiders with a 12-point win, finishing 32-20, and they’ll be looking to keep that momentum going against a tough Roosters side.
The Roosters are sitting mid-table in 9th with a 4-5 record, but they’re starting to build some momentum after back-to-back wins. They’re coming off a solid 36-26 victory over the Dolphins at Lang Park and will be looking to carry that form into their clash with the ladder-leading Bulldogs. Their recent form has been a mixed bag (3-2 in the last five), and while their home record hasn’t been great (2-3), they’ve been more balanced on the road at 2-2. If they can keep their winning streak going, this could be a real test for the high-flying Dogs.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 9-8 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Roosters are 8-2 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
The Dogs should be able to handle the Roosters, they're 6-1 ATS in home games.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs -7.5 = $1.85
Dolphins (12th) vs New Zealand Warriors (2nd)
The Dolphins head into their match against the Warriors sitting 12th on the ladder with a 4-6 record, but they’ve shown some fight recently. They’re coming off a tight 20-16 win over the Eels in Round 10 and have taken three of their last five. While their away form hasn’t been the best (2-4), they’ve held their own at home with a 2-2 record. One of their standout strengths has been ball control — they rank 14th in the NRL for errors made, which has helped them stay competitive in games. With a bit of momentum behind them after last week’s win, they’ll be looking to keep things rolling against the Warriors.
The Dolphins head into their match against the Warriors sitting 12th on the ladder with a 4-6 record, but they’ve shown some fight recently. They’re coming off a tight 20-16 win over the Eels in Round 10 and have taken three of their last five. While their away form hasn’t been the best (2-4), they’ve held their own at home with a 2-2 record. One of their standout strengths has been ball control — they rank 14th in the NRL for errors made, which has helped them stay competitive in games. With a bit of momentum behind them after last week’s win, they’ll be looking to keep things rolling against the Warriors.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. New Zealand are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 2-2.
Best Bet
I think the Warriors get the job done at Suncorp. They're 7-2 ATS when they're favoured by under 2 pts.
New Zealand Warriors -1.5 = $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys (6th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (8th)
The Cowboys are sitting in 6th spot on the ladder with a 4-4 record and have been in decent form lately, going 3-1-1 over their last five. They’re coming off a 30-30 draw against the Panthers at home, which was a tough grind, but still shows their ability to hang in there against strong opposition. At home, they’ve been fairly solid (2-1-1), while their away form sits at 2-3. One area they’ll want to tidy up is their ball handling — they rank 4th in the NRL for errors made. Still, they’ve been competitive and will be out to bounce back when they take on the Sea Eagles.
The Sea Eagles head into their clash with the Cowboys looking to snap a rough patch of form, having lost four of their last five and coming off a 16-point defeat to the Sharks at Brookvale. They’re currently sitting 8th on the ladder with a 4-5 record, but despite the recent slump, they’ve shown they can pile on points — ranking 5th in the NRL for points scored. Their home record is even at 3-3, while they’ve struggled a bit on the road with a 1-2 record. They'll be keen to bounce back and get things back on track in what should be a tight matchup.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 7-2 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at QCB. Manly are 3-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Sea Eagles are 3-2 against the Cowboys in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Look for a high scoring game up north, the Over is 14-4 at this venue.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th) vs Melbourne Storm (3rd)
The Sharks are in solid form heading into their matchup with the Storm, sitting 5th on the ladder with a 6-4 record and riding a two-game winning streak. They’re coming off a convincing 30-14 win over the Sea Eagles at Brookvale and have won four of their last five. Offensively, they’ve been strong, ranking 4th in the NRL for tries scored, showing they know how to find the line. While they’ve been a bit error-prone, ranking 5th in the league for mistakes — they’ve still managed to get results both at home (3-1) and away (3-3). The Sharks will be keen to keep the momentum going against a tough Storm outfit.
The Storm roll into their clash with the Sharks sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 6-3 record and coming off an absolute demolition job — a 64-point win over the Tigers at home. They’ve been a powerhouse in attack this season, leading the NRL in both points and tries scored. Their home form has been rock solid at 5-1, but they’ve been a bit patchier on the road (1-2). Over their last five games, they’ve gone 3-2, and they’ll be looking to build on last week’s dominant performance. There's also a boost on the cards, with Harry Grant potentially returning from a hamstring injury.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Shark Park. Melbourne are 0-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Storm have won 7 games against the Sharks.
Best Bet
The Storm haven't been great in away games this year and I think the Sharks can keep it close on their home turf. They are 4-0 ATS when they play Melbourne in Sydney.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +3.5 = $1.95
Brisbane Broncos (7th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (13th)
The Broncos are sitting in 7th place on the ladder with a 5-5 record, but they’re on a two-game losing streak after a 22-14 loss to the Rabbitohs at Stadium Australia. Their form has been a bit up and down, especially in their last five games, where they’ve gone 1-4. On the bright side, the Broncos are still a dangerous side in attack, ranking 4th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. While their away record is a little shaky at 2-4, they’ve been much stronger at home with a 3-1 record. They’ll be without Ben Hunt for this game, but Ezra Mam is back in the mix, which should give them a boost.
The Dragons are in a rough patch, having lost their last three games, including a heartbreaker by just one point to the Warriors in Wollongong. They’re currently sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-6 record. Their form has been inconsistent lately, going 2-3 in their last five, and they’ve struggled on the road with a 1-3 away record. At home, they’re a bit better at 2-3, but they’ll need to clean up their errors, as they rank 2nd in the NRL for mistakes made. With Toby Couchman out for this game, the Dragons will need to dig deep if they want to bounce back against the Broncos.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Suncorp. St. George are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dragons are 3-2 against the Broncos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Over is 6-0 when the Broncos host the Dragons.
Canberra Raiders (4th) vs Gold Coast Titans (15th)
The Raiders are sitting 4th on the ladder with a solid 7-3 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a 12-point loss to the Bulldogs at Canberra Stadium. Their recent form has been strong, winning 4 of their last 5, and they’ve been impressive both at home (4-1) and on the road (3-2). The Raiders are one of the top teams in attack, ranking 2nd in the NRL for both points and tries scored, and they’ve also been good at limiting errors, sitting 14th in the league for mistakes. With Corey Horsburgh returning to the side, they’ll be hoping to get back to winning ways, though they’ll be without Matty Nicholson for this one.
The Titans are struggling this season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 3-6 record. They’ve been inconsistent, winning just 1 of their last 5 games, but did manage a narrow 24-20 win over the Knights in Round 10. Their attack has been a major issue, ranking 14th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. They’ve also had some issues with consistency at home, going 1-3, though they’re a bit better on the road at 2-3. On a positive note, the Titans have been impressive when it comes to reducing errors, ranking 17th in the NRL for mistakes made. They’ll need to improve their attack if they’re to challenge the Raiders in this one.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 3-1 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 1-5 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Raiders hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
Canberra are 4-0 against the Over as a betting favourite and the Titans are one of the worst defensive sides in the NRL.
Wests Tigers (10th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (11th)
The Tigers are sitting in 10th place with a 5-5 record, but they’re coming off a tough 64-0 loss to the Storm at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium. Despite that heavy defeat, they’ve shown they can bounce back, going 3-2 in their last five games. Their away form has been solid, with a 3-2 record, though they’ve struggled a bit at home, sitting at 2-3. With a 1-game losing streak and a tough matchup against the Rabbitohs ahead, the Tigers will need to regroup quickly and bring their best to stay competitive.
The Rabbitohs are sitting in 11th place with a 5-5 record and are coming off a solid 22-14 win over the Broncos at home. They’re on a one-game winning streak after a rough patch, going 1-4 in their last five. While their home form has been strong at 4-2, they’ve struggled on the road with just a 1-3 record. One of their main issues has been attack, as they’re ranked 16th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. However, with Alex Johnston returning on the wing, they’ll be hoping his presence will boost their offence as they look to get back on track against the Tigers.
Stadium Record
Wests are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. South Sydney are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Rabbitohs have won 4 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Souths are going through a rebuild and the Tigers will be looking to bounce back. Ultimately, I think it will a high scoring night game and the Under is 10-0 in Souths last 10.
