2024 NRL Round 21 Betting Predictions
Round 21 will begin with a Friday night double-header and it's headlined by the ladder-leading Storm trying to extend their lead atop the ladder against wounded Eels at Comm Bank.
New Zealand Warriors (14th) vs Wests Tigers (17th)
The Warriors suffered a heartbreaking 20-18 loss to the Raiders in their last game, where they outscored their opponents four tries to three but only managed to convert one. They have won their last six games against the Wests Tigers. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck moves from wing to fullback to cover for Taine Tuaupiki.
The Tigers showed plenty of spirit in their high-scoring game against the Bunnies in Round 20, even leading at times before losing 42-28. This week, they'll be without experienced halfback Aidan Sezer, who accepted a two-week ban. However, they will have their captain Api Koroisau back from a calf injury, and Isaiah Papali'i is also back in action. The Tigers haven't won in New Zealand since 2018.
Both sides can leak points so I like the Over. It's 3-0 in the Tigers last 3.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 6-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Wests are 2-3 in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Warriors are 7-1 against the Tigers since 2018.
Best Bet
Parramatta Eels (16th) vs Melbourne Storm (1st)
The Eels had a bye last round, with their last game being a loss to the Titans in Round 19. In a big blow for Parramatta, halfback Mitchell Moses is out for the rest of the season after rupturing his biceps while playing for New South Wales. The Eels have won three of their four games against the Storm at CommBank Stadium, but it’ll be tough without Moses.
Melbourne kept rolling with a solid 24-8 win against the Roosters last round, marking their sixth straight victory. In more good news, coach Bellamy is likely to have star half Cameron Munster back for this week's game against the Eels, and Christian Welch and Nelson Asofa-Solomona are returning from injury. The Storm have put up 94 points in their last two games against Parramatta.
The Under is 7-0 when the Eels are at home against the Storm and I don't see the Storm's defence giving up a lot of pts with Moses out.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Brisbane Broncos (11th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (6th)
The Broncos are looking to build on their recent win when they host the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. The return of halfback Adam Reynolds sparked a 30-14 victory over the Knights last weekend, snapping a six-game losing streak and keeping their finals hopes alive with seven rounds to go. Brisbane now has a chance to close the gap with the top eight by beating a team above them on the ladder. They’ve won their last five games against the Bulldogs but have lost their last four at Suncorp.
The Bulldogs dropped to sixth after a narrow loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night and are eager to bounce back at Suncorp Stadium. However, they’ve struggled on the road, winning just one of nine away games this season. Canterbury hasn't beaten the Broncos at Suncorp since 2015.
The Dogs are 6-0 against the Under and I think this will be a tough and defensive grind.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Since 2018, Canterbury have a 0-11 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Broncos hold a 7-2 record.
Best Bet
North Queensland Cowboys (8th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (3rd)
The Cowboys grabbed a crucial win over the Bulldogs on Sunday, keeping them in eighth place after 20 rounds. With every game now vital for their finals hopes, they’re eager to make it two wins in a row this weekend. However, they haven’t beaten the Sharks in Townsville since 2018 and have only won two of their last six games at QCB Stadium.
Cronulla will head to Townsville brimming with confidence after their dominant 42-6 win over North Queensland in Round 7. They’ve had a week off to recharge after a massive 52-point victory over Wests Tigers two weeks ago. The Sharks have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Cowboys.
The Sharks have the wood over the Cowboys and have won their last 7 interstate games.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Cronulla are 4-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Sharks have won 9 games against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +2.5 = $1.90
Sydney Roosters (4th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (5th)
The Roosters are coming off a loss in Melbourne and need to bounce back in front of their home fans. Coach Trent Robinson is sticking with the same 17-man squad that lost to the Storm. They’ve won four of their last five games at Allianz Stadium, and winger Dominic Young has scored seven tries in his last five matches there.
Manly showed off their attacking power in their big win over the Titans on Sunday. Superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic was back to his best, and Reuben Garrick, Jason Saab, and Luke Brooks all looked dangerous. However, Manly will need to find a new winger since Lehi Hopoate suffered a fractured eye socket.
The Under is now 6-0 when these two sides face each other.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are yet to play at the new SFS.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Roosters hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
St. George Illawarra Dragons (9th) vs Penrith Panthers (2nd)
The much-improved Dragons will get a real test of their progress in 2024 when they host the defending champs, Penrith, at WIN Stadium. Sitting just outside the top eight on points differential, the Dragons face a crucial few weeks with games against both Penrith and Melbourne — key fixtures that could determine if they make a finals push or fall out of contention. They’ve won all three games at WIN Stadium this year.
Penrith barely missed a beat with Nathan Cleary, who nailed a long-range field goal in golden point to secure a 28-26 win after returning from a hamstring injury. With co-captain Isaah Yeo set to come back from a rest this weekend, the Panthers are looking strong. They’ve won six of their last seven games against the Dragons, though they haven’t won in Wollongong since 2014.
I think the Dragons keep this close at WIN Stadium, the underdog is also 12-1 in this matchup.
Stadium Record
St. George are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Penrith are 0-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Panthers are 4-1 against the Dragons in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
St. George Illawarra Dragons +10.5 = $1.95
Dolphins (7th) vs Gold Coast Titans (15th)
The Dolphins might have dropped a spot on the ladder after a golden point loss to Penrith, but they made a strong impression by pushing the premiers to the limit. They've won all three games against the Titans so far. However, they've been leaking 26 points or more in their last six matches.
The Titans were outgunned by Manly at Brookvale and are now six points outside the top eight, looking unlikely to make the finals. Getting AJ Brimson back from groin issues would be a boost, but they need to tighten up their defence to contain the Dolphins' attacking threats. The Titans have won three of their last four games at Suncorp Stadium.
Should be a high-scoring clash and the Over is 4-0 when the Fins are playing at home.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dolphins are 3-0 against the Titans since 2018.
Best Bet
Canberra Raiders (10th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (12th)
The Raiders are just two points outside the top eight after a narrow win over the Warriors, and with games against the Panthers and Roosters coming up, a win at home this weekend is crucial. Ricky Stuart's team has a 10-9 record at GIO Stadium over the past two seasons, making the trip to the chilly national capital a bit less daunting for visiting teams. The Raiders have won four of their last five games against South Sydney.
The Rabbitohs have won six of their last seven games to keep their top-eight hopes alive, but they can't afford any slip-ups as they head to the national capital for a near-elimination game. With Cameron Murray and Latrell Mitchell still out, South Sydney needs to keep their finals dreams alive until their stars return. Winger Alex Johnston has been in great form, scoring five tries in his last three games against the Raiders.
Souths are in good form, having won 6 of their last 7. Canberra has also struggled to cover after winning at home, they're 0-11 ATS.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. South Sydney are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Raiders hold a 4-1 record against the Rabbitohs.
Best Bet
