New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Since an Overtime loss to the Cowboys and sitting with a 2-4 record, the Patriots have improved immensely in all areas. After thrashing the Browns 45-7 last week, they extended their winning streak to 4 games and now have a real shot at the AFC East title. Rookie Mac Jones is having a fine season and comes off 3 touchdown passes against the Browns. While they missed starting RB Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson stepped in and rushed for 100 yards / 2 touchdowns. The Pats offence will have another great matchup against a Falcons defence that was blown apart by the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Pats defence has also been impressive as they've allowed a total of just 13 pts in the last 2 wins.
Last week's 43-3 defeat against the Cowboys was embarrassing and the Falcons will need to bounce back on their home turf this Friday. Matt Ryan has been solid this season with a 68% pass completion rate but he's missing the absent Calvin Ridley in the passing game. So his combination with rookie TE Kyle Pitts is the key against the Patriots red-hot defence. While for the Falcons defence, they need to get early pressure on Mac Jones and keep the running game under control. However, the defence has struggled this season as they've allowed 29.9 points per game.
The Patriots have found their groove on offence in a 4 game winning streak and as a result, the total looks slightly low in this matchup. New England has gone Over the total in 5 of their last 6 games and it's also 4-1 in Atlanta. Not to mention, the Falcons gave up 43 pts last week and should struggle to regroup on a short week.
Stadium Record
Atlanta has been poor at home with a 1-5 record. The Patriots have won 4 of their last 5 road games against Atlanta.
Head to Head Record
New England has won 6 of the last 8 meetings, including the unforgettable Super Bowl comeback in 2017.
Best Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
The Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger / Chase Claypool against the winless Lions in Week 10 and it showed in an ugly 16-16 tie. Roethlisberger is questionable to be back in Week 11 after testing postive for Covid-19 a few weeks ago. A tie against the worst team in the NFL is a big blow for Pittsburgh's playoff hopes so this is must win road game against LA. Defensively, they'll be gameplanning around stopping Justin Herbert in the passing game and they have been solid in this area during the season. But if this turns into a shootout, it will be tough for Pittsburgh to keep up as they score just under 20 points per game.
Los Angeles have hit a mid-season slump after losing 3 of their last 4 games, including 2 straight at home against the Vikings / Patriots. But after the Steelers performance last week, the Chargers have to be confident of turning it around. Firstly, Austin Ekeler should enjoy a nice matchup against the Steelers struggling run defence that couldn't stop the Lions last week. Justin Herbert has been a bit quiet lately so if they can get a strong running game, that should ease the pressure. Overall, the Chargers defence has struggled to contain the running game as they rank last in the NFL for yardage. So stopping the influence of Najee Harris will be a large key to this matchup.
It's looking like Roethlisberger won't be able to start and that puts the Steelers offence in a tough spot. They struggled to score 16 pts in OT against the lowly Lions and the Chargers on the road won't be any easier. Los Angeles have a good record against the Under at home (6-2) and they should be dialing up the pressure on Mason Rudolph, which should see a low scoring affair.
Stadium Record
The Chargers are 2-3 at home this season. Pittsburgh is yet to play at this venue but hold a 4-1 road record against LA.
Head to Head Record
Since 2003, the Steelers have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. They also won the last meeting in 2019, 24-17.
Best Bet
New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
New York enjoyed the bye week in Week 10 after a huge win over the Raiders 23-16. The Giants have struggled with injuries all season so hopefully the bye gave their starters time to get some rest. This includes the likes of Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Overall, the Giants have 5 road games left and they've won just 1 of 5 so far this season. However, with the playoffs and division likely out of reach, a win over Tom Brady could be enough motivation and they do have a good record against the Bucs in the last 4 meetings.
The defending champs will be looking to end a 2 game losing streak after disappointing performances against Washington and New Orleans on the road. However, Tampa Bay is yet to lose on home turf this season (4-0) and start as warm favourites in this matchup. We have to consider the injuries to Antonio Brown and Gronkowski have made it tough for Tom Brady. Both of his weapons are questionable for this matchup so that's something to monitor. Meanwhile, the Tampa defence is always strong against the run (2nd in the NFL) and that should help keep the Giants offence on the sidelines. However, their pass defence has struggled with injuries and inconsistent play.
There's something about the Giants that makes Tom Brady uncomfortable and we like their chances as a road underdog in this matchup. A lot depends on the playing status of Brown & Gronk as the Bucs offence isn't the same without the pair. But at this stage, the Giants are 5-0 ATS at this venue against Tampa and the last 4 meetings have been decided by under 4 points.
Stadium Record
Tampa Bay is undefeated in their last 5 home games. New York has won 4 of their last 5 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bucs won last year's meeting 25-23. Sinice 2003, the Giants hold a 7-3 against the Bucs.
Best Bet
Other NFL Week 11 Tips
| Game | Best Bet
|
| Texans at Titans | Titans -7.5 = $1.70 |
| Packers at Vikings | Under 50.5 = $1.76 |
| Dolphins at Jets | Under 45.5 = $1.82 |
| Saints at Eagles | Eagles -1.5 = $1.85 |
| Washington at Panthers | Over 43.5 = $1.94 |
| 49ers at Jaguars | 49ers -6.5 = $1.94 |
| Lions at Browns | Under 44.5 = $1.80 |
| Ravens at Bears | Ravens -6.5 = $2.15 |
| Colts at Bills | Colts +7.5 = $1.85 |
| Bengals at Raiders | Over 49.5 = $1.89 |
| Cowboys at Chiefs | Over 55.5 = $1.85 |
| Cardinals at Seahawks | Under 49.5 = $1.78 |
