Round 12 Preview
We are now halfway through the season and I haven’t been this keen for a round in a long time. I’m expecting a majority of these games to be close, so let’s hope we can get on the right side of the ledger in the betting department.
Brisbane Broncos ($6.50) v Melbourne Storm ($1.11)
Thursday 27th May 7:50PM, Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos pulled off one of the upsets of the season and in their history last week with an 18 point win over the Roosters, but this shapes as a much tougher test against a Storm side that has held their number for the better part of the last five seasons. Melbourne is shooting for its 10th straight win over the Broncos on Thursday night at Suncorp, with the most recent meeting between these two sides resulting in a 40-6 bloodbath last month.That kicked off the Storm’s current eight-game winning streak, and it’s very difficult to imagine that run coming to an end, even with Cameron Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Harry Grant still missing. Fullback Nico Hynes has stepped up in the absence of the aforementioned players, tallying 10 try assists and 14 linebreak assists in 2021, and proving himself a hot commodity as he comes off contract at the end of the season. As mentioned, the Broncos showed positive signs in their win, with Albert Kelly steering the side around the park excellently in his long-awaited NRL return. Each time Brisbane appear to have turned a corner they end up turning in a poor performance the next round and with Melbourne in red hot form I can see them covering the line.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -20.5 $1.95
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.00) v New Zealand Warriors ($1.80)
Friday 28th May 6:00PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The first of two clashes on Friday evening shapes as pivotal for the fortunes of both sides heading into the back half of the season, with both sides locked on 5 wins a piece, albeit the Warriors sit one place higher in ninth courtesy of a superior for and against margin. The Cowboys were impressive in a dominant win over the Knights while the Warriors were able to hold off a much improved Tigers side on the back of wunderkind Reece Walsh. After having a relatively quiet 2020 season on the back of his NFL sojourn, Valentine Homes has improved markedly in 2021 and is the key, along with Scott Drinkwater to the attacking shape of the Cowboys. On the other hand, the Warriors continue to impress with their strong completion rate across the first 11 rounds at a competition leading 80%, however, playing, and winning in Townsville is no easy task and with four wins just two losses at Queensland Country Bank Stadium this season, the Cowboys look an enticing betting proposition at the even money.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys $2.00
Wests Tigers ($1.52) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($2.55)
Friday 28th May 7:55PM, Bankwest Stadium
The Tigers and the Dragons were both victims of narrow losses last week as they look to bounce back on Friday night at Bankwest. Having defeated Dragons when they met earlier in the month with a gutsy eight-point win in Wollongong, Michael Maguire will be hoping his side can replicate that performance and bounce back on Friday night. Wests dominated possession that day after forcing the Dragons into 45 missed tackles and based on everything we’ve seen from St George recently it’s no real surprise to find the Tigers as the favourites ahead of the rematch. There’s also good news on the injury front for Wests with James Roberts returning, while the Dragons will be significantly bolstered with Paul Vaughn and Tariq Sims coming back into the side. Obviously, it’s difficult to feel overly confident in the Tigers, but the fact they’ve won three straight over the Dragons dating back to last season is reason enough to believe they can pick up their fourth win of the season, however I feel the value is with the Dragons to cover the line. Both sides typically win by single digits and I expect that too happen again.
Recommended Bet: Dragons +5.5
Penrith Panthers ($1.01) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($21.00)
Saturday 29th May 3:00PM, BlueBet Stadium
It is extremely rare you see odds offered across any sporting code, however such is the gulf between the first and last placed sides on the ladder, it may even look unders! Whilst the Bulldogs had a spirited performance against Canberra last round, only going down by 2 points, the Panthers put 56 on a South Sydney side who shares the third line of betting for the Premiership. The Panthers have defeated the Bulldogs by a cumulative score of 70-0 in their previous two encounters, hence the line offered here, but I argue the Panthers, in particular Nathan Cleary and James Fisher-Harris have improved again since then, and the 35.5 could prove to be a bit low in hindsight.
Recommended Bet: Panthers -35.5 $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.70) v Parramatta Eels ($2.15)
Saturday 29th May 5:30PM, Stadium Australia
A Saturday evening clash between the Rabbitohs and Eels is arguably the match of the round as both sides hope to atone for last week’s disappointment, with South Sydney embarrassed by the Panthers in Dubbo, while the Eels failed in their attempt at claiming second spot outright on the ladder when being humbled by Manly at Bankwest. Cameron Murray has been named to return to the Rabbitohs side and is vital for the side in both attack and defence, and on a personal front, will be wanting a strong performance prior to the naming of the NSW Origin team. Wayne Bennett has promoted Jai Arrow to the starting lineup in place of Thomas Burgess while Parramatta coach Brad Arthur was forced to make changes due to the suspension of Regan Campbell-Gillard, who has been outstanding in 2021, averaging 150 run metres per game to go along with 89% tackle efficiency. While this will be a thrilling game, I can see Latrell Mitchell being the difference maker after a quiet first game back from suspension so watch him to create a lot of opportunities across the left side of the Rabbitohs attack.
Recommended Bet: Rabbitohs 1-12 $2.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.27) v Canberra Raiders ($3.75)
Saturday 29th May 7:35PM, Central Coast Stadium
These two sides have played out some absolute classics in recent years and it would not be surprising if we’re treated to another on Saturday. Fresh from a controversial loss to the Broncos last week, a win could prove crucial for the Roosters with the Eels and the Rabbitohs squaring off only a few hours earlier, in what could be a major factor in shaping the top 4 as we head into the crux of the season. Likewise, the Raiders could also move a step closer to rejoining the eight after suffering another thrashing at the hands of the Storm last week at home and enduring a ringing through the press in recent weeks. No more than eight points has separated these two sides in their last nine meetings, but there is a decent chance this one gets a little out of hand based on Canberra’s long list of injuries and recent form lines. While Jarrod Croker has reportedly recovered well from his shoulder injury, the captain still remains on the sidelines for the next few weeks alongside Elliott Whitehead, Jack Wighton, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, however George Williams will not play after being released from his contract immediately. Also working in the Roosters’ favour here is their outstanding record on the back of a loss, with Trent Robinson making sure his players atone for a poor performance against the Broncos last round.
Recommended Bet: Roosters 13+ $2.00
Cronulla Sharks ($2.15) v Gold Coast Titans ($1.70)
Sunday 30th May 2:00PM, C.ex Coffs International Stadium
The Sharks have held the wood over the Titans over the last few years as they hope to win back-to-back games on Sunday for the first time since March.
Cronulla secured a hard fought win last week over the rival Dragons thanks to the boot of Chad Townsend, but this does shape as a tougher task against a Titans team that is desperate to hold onto a spot in the eight. Justin Holbrook’s side picked up a much-needed 10-point win over the Bulldogs last week at home, but again, it’s tough to read too much into a win over the Bulldogs, who at this point are simply making up the numbers in the competition. The Sharks currently rank second in the league in missed tackles, while the Titans have looked vulnerable in defence the entire year, however they do have increased upside as opposed to the Sharks, hence why I’m sticking with them here.
Recommended Bet: Titans $1.70
Newcastle Knights (3.90) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.25)
Sunday 30th May, 4:05Pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The Sea Eagles validated their top 8 credentials last round with a dominant 28-6 victory over the previously second placed Eels at Bankwest. It is quite astounding to think this is the same side that was getting blown out by over 20 points regularly across the opening rounds, but such is the impact of Tom Trbojevic, they now find themselves just two wins away from the top four. The Knights have been extremely disappointing and continue to underachieve over the past decade, and based on comments from the side in the media, they are out of answers also. In the previous two games, Newcastle have trailed by by more than 2 converted tries in the first 10 minutes, leaving them with too much to do to earn a result. Kalyn Ponga returns, but as noted, he will do little to stem their defensive issues and with the Sea Eagles in such imperious form, I’m confident they will cover the line here.
Recommended Bet: Sea Eagles -11.5 $1.85
