Round 6 Preview
While as fans we were treated to some thrilling games in Round 5, we were only successful with half the recommended bets and will look to improve here with a number of betting opportunities at good odds presenting themselves.
Brisbane Broncos ($12) v Penrith Panthers ($1.03)
Thursday 15th April 7:50PM, Suncorp Stadium
I wrote last week that the Panthers would put a marker in the sand and comprehensively defeat the Raiders, and they proved me right. Last years beaten grand finalists were a class above in the 30-10 victory, in particular five eight Jerome Luai who was able to set up two tries as well as scoring one of his own to outshine not only the Canberra halves but also his Origin team mate Nathan Cleary. Luai’s continued progression is an illustration of the steps the Panthers squad has taken in the past 18 months, and with their confidence sky high, the Broncos will have a tough time in getting close on Thursday night. With the Broncos having given up 24 points or more in all 5 of their games so far and the Panthers possessing one of the best defences in the competition, it does not seem unreasonable they would not be able to cover the line in the round’s opening game.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -27.5 $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($1.80) v Cronulla Sharks ($2.00)
Friday 16th April 6:00PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
The twilight clash Friday night sees the faltering Knights host the Sharks in Newcastle and I’m finding this game very hard to get a read on. Cronulla will be bitterly disappointed with having let slip a second half lead against the Roosters last round in what was symptomatic of their start to the season, periods of brilliance followed up by periods of lacklustre defence and disorganised attack. Unfortunately, both Wade Graham and Josh Dugan are out injured for this match up but will be buoyed by the return of Siosifa Talakai who was one of the competition’s most underrated forwards in 2020 and will provide an impact off the bench. Newcastle have suffered three losses on the bounce and were run roughshot on by David Fifita and the Titans forrward back last weekend. In a positive for the Knights, they beat the Sharks 38-10 towards the back end of last year, a match most remembered for halfback Chad Townsend being sent off for a shoulder charge on Kalyn Ponga, and will no doubt provide some motivation to win again. In saying that, if the Sharks can replicate their first half of play from Round 5, they will be able to secure the 2 points against a depleted Newcastle outfit.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks $2.00
Melbourne Storm ($1.33) v Sydney Roosters ($3.35)
Friday 16th April 7:55PM, AAMI Park
The match of the round sees perennial Premiership contenders the Storm and Roosters go head-to-head in the marquee Friday night fixture. The tricolours put in an inspired second half performance, led by rookie half Sam Walker to pick up a crucial win over the Sharks at the SCG. Unfortunately, their injury woes have worsened with hooker Freddy Lussick being added to the mounting injury list for Trent Robinson after suffering a broken arm. The Storm however, have registered over 90 points in the previous two wins after suffering back-to-back losses in rounds 2 and 3. The match-up between fullbacks James Tedesco and Ryan Papenhuyzen will be worth the price of admission alone, with both having scored 7 tries so far this season, while the electric Papenhuyzen also leads the competition with 68 points scored. The Storm have had the recent edge over their Sydney rivals, defeating them twice during the 2020 season, including a round 8 golden point thriller. With a bumper crowd expected at Aami Park, I’m confident the Storm will register their third straight win, but the Roosters are still too good of a side even without the likes of Luke Keary, Boyd Cordner and Jake Friend to be rolled over and I’m tipping it will be another close contest between the sides.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $3.00
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.65) v Gold Coast Titans ($1.48)
Saturday 17th April 3:00PM, Glen Willow Oval
Although both teams are looking for back-to-back wins, they both earned two points in round 5 in vastly different fashions. Des Hasler’s Manly side recorded their first win on the back of a last minute Daly Cherry-Evans field goals to down a depleted Warriors outfit, in a game that won’t go down in the Rugby League annals as a classic. Conversely, the Titans delivered on the expectations put upon them as they thoroughly dispatched of the Knights 42-16 thanks to a hat-trick to off season recruit David Fifita. The Keebra Park product looks to be relishing his role on the left edge for the Titans, scoring 6 tries along with a league leading 36 tackle breaks through the first 5 rounds. While the Sea Eagles will have gained some confidence from their win, both Dylan Walker and Jack Gosiewski face extended periods on the sideline, putting more pressure on the already questionable Manly depth. While there is no home ground advantage, the NRL does a great job in taking games out to regional centres and I’m confident the Mudgee residents will be on hand to witness a big Gold Coast win.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans 13+ $2.62
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.11) v Wests Tigers ($6.50)
Saturday 17th April 5:30PM, Stadium Australia
The Rabbitohs are looking to build a picket fence by shooting for five in a row on Saturday afternoon when they take on a Wests Tigers outfit on the receiving end of the Cowboys first win of the season and being boo’d off at halftime by their supporters. While coach Michael Maguire has made some superficial changes to the lineup, it will not be enough to stop a high flying. Bunnies team. Ranked top five in points and tries, the Bunnies have made short work of their opponents over the last month holding Manly Bulldogs and Broncos and remarkably the Roosters to a total just 34 points in those four games while scoring just over themselves on average each fixture. The return of Cody Walker for the Rabbitohs would normally be game changing, however such is the play of the side at the moment, Benji Marshall was able to come into the starting lineup and wind back the clock at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers have an uphill battle to get even close to South Sydney here and I’m very confident the red and green machine will be able to cover the line once again.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -17.5 $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.70) v Parramatta Eels ($2.15)
Saturday 17th April 7:35PM, GIO Stadium
The main event on Saturday night sees the Raiders host the Eels in Canberra in a game that could have a big finals impact this early in the season. Both teams will be pushing once again for top 4 finish and two losses in a row will put a serious dent in those aspirations, while the victor will have entrenched themselves with Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters as the benchmark sides. While the scoreboard makes it look as though Canberra lost convincingly to the Panthers last week, there was a lot to like about the way the Raiders opened proceedings, leading 6-0 after 20 minutes before the clas of the Panthers took over. Conversely, the Eels were a surprising losing in Round 5 after suffering a comprehensive 26-12 defeat to the Dragons. St George managed to hold Parramatta to a scoreless first half at Bankwest, although it is fair to say the Eels were their own worst enemy committing 14 errors across the 80 minutes. Canberra has won 10 straight over Parramatta at home dating all the way back to 2006 and a cold Winter’s night is not a place desparate visiting sides want to visit. If the Raiders can control possession and force mistakes, much like the Dragons did last week, they should go a long way to earning that top four spot.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders $1.70
St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.50) v New Zealand Warriors ($2.60)
Sunday 18th April 2:00PM, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The Dragons continue to prove their detractors wrong as they put in an inspired defensive performance to down the previously unbeaten Parramatta Eels and in the process record their fourth straight win. Hooker Andrew McCullogh has been an integral signing for the Red V having made the most tackles this season along with contributing to the attack with 26 runs out of dummy half in what can be seen as a key metric due to the increased speed of play due to the season’s rule changes. His leadership on the defensive front appears to have inspired the rest of his troops with the Dragons holding their last 4 opponents to under 20 points, a stat only matched by Premiership favourites Penrith. After positive early season signs, the Warriors have regressed in recent weeks under Nathan Brown which hasn’t been helped by long terms injuries to several key players.
Recommended Bet: St George Illawarra Dragons 13+ $2.82
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.45) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($2.75)
Sunday 18th April 4:05PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The North Queensland faithful rejoiced last Sunday afternoon as their side recorded their first win of the season 34-30 over the Tigers at Leichardt Oval. The Cowboys looked a different side in the first half of that game compared to their opening four rounds as they run in five tries to lead 28-6 at halftime. However, they definitely did their best to lose, letting the Tigers back into the contest through the second half, but ultimately held strong to win at Leichardt for the first time since 2000. Despite suffering a heavy 52-18 defeat to the Storm last round, the Bulldogs will at least take solace in the fact the scored 3 tries, having been held scoreless for the two rounds prior and come up against a much weaker Cowboys defensive unit this round. Todd Payten’s side have the unfortunate honour of leading the competition in several negative play categories, including; most errors (70), penalties conceded (24) and missed tackles (175) and will need to reduce these numbers if they are to have any chance of moving out from the bottom quarter of the ladder. In saying that, the return of Jason Taumolo will give them a huge boost against a Bulldogs pack missing captain Josh Jackson and their performance during the first half last round gives me enough confidence they should be good enough again.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys 1-12 $2.85
