Horse Racing Bets – Group 1 Australian Guineas – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS 2021 PREVIEW

Flemington Race 7 - 4:05pm

GROUP 1 - 3YO

1600m

Rail +2m ENTIRE

GOOD 4

OVERVIEW

The three-year-olds will take centre stage on Saturday with the running of the Group 1 Australian Guineas the feature on a bumper nine race card from Flemington. A strong field of 15 colts and just the lone filly will line up chasing success in the time honoured mile. The CS Hayes (1400m) shapes as the crucial lead up form with a number of runners progressing through the race won by Tagaloa. At the time of writing the track is a Good 4 and the rail is in the 2m position.

SPEED

Speed looks strong. They really ran along in the CS Hayes having gone almost 12 lengths above benchmark to the 600m so you'd expect this will also be a truly run race. Speed comes from ZOU DANCER, HERE TO SHOCK, TAGALOA, AYSAR and POLAND all pushing forward and finding spots. GRANDSLAM went back in the CS Hayes but may also inject some speed from out wide? DOM TO SHOOT can settle closer than he raced two weeks ago with LUNAR FOX, IRON EDGE, JET PROPULSION, ITSOURTIME midfield. BELTORO, CAMBOURNE next with a few interesting runners OLE KIRK, CHERRY TORTONI and EMBOLISM having to go back from wide draws.

KEY RUNNERS

2. TAGALOA ($3.80) (Luke Currie/T Busuttin & N Young)

Winner of the lead up in the CS Hayes having bounced back from a fairly plain effort first up in the Manfred. The figure he put down in the CS Hayes was superb (14 lengths above), riding a hot speed (12 lengths above to the 600m) but still running the quickest last 200m of the race with real late strength through the line. That's a fantastic trait and platform heading to the mile. He failed in his previous only ever try at 1600m in the Caulfield Guineas so he does need to come out and do it but he did SP $4.20, so he was expected to run well and just wasn't at his best during that preparation. He clearly runs his best in fast run races this horse so he would again be hoping for early pressure, perhaps allowing the field to string out a little so that Luke Currie can find a spot from the draw. If he does, I think he's hard to beat if not flat after that big exertion 2nd up. He has won previously third up however (Blue Diamond as a two year old), so you'd think he would be ready to go. Top pick.

16. ZOU DANCER ($5.00) (Jamie Kah/Leon & Troy Corstens) 

The only filly contesting the Guineas this year having really put her hand up as a serious contender last start in the Vanity, handling her opposition with ease in a 5 length romp over 1400m at Flemington. Contested that race the same day/track/distance as Tagaloa in the CS Hayes. Comparably, both were fast run races, Zou Dancer went just 1.5 lengths slower to the 600m but also came home slower, with Tagaloa running about 4 lengths faster overall time. She has obvious positives with a good map expected and has the gun Jamie Kah aboard but she still has to tick the 1600m box for mine and looks too short in early markets. Runs well but prefer others.

3. AYSAR ($7.00) (Damian Lane/T Dabernig & B Hayes)

Aysar shapes as a horse you have to be on even though he’s gaining the reputation as an animal who’s scared of the winning post. Naturally, running 2^nd in your last four starts will lend to those assumptions but I think it’s harsh when looking at those performances. He ran a huge race in the Caulfield Guineas, only overhauled late by Ole Kirk in a brutally run race where he sat on speed. Went to the Carbine Club where he was just out pointed by Crosshaven and then looked the winner in the CS Hayes but was just no match for Tagaloa’s late strength. He still ran the 3^rd quickest last 400/200m of the race and may just be looking for the mile now. The thing with him is you know he’s going to put himself into the race with his racing pattern and the positive draw allows Damian Lane to give him every possible. The other positive is this time we are getting a price. Think he goes close.

OTHERS

As is usually the case in a Guineas, the chances don’t end there with so many angles one could take in this race. Ole Kirk is a fascinating runner on the 7 day back up after failing in the Futurity but he was in the wrong part of the track. He was clearly the best of this lot as the standout spring 3-year-old but is he going as well this time? Market is likely to find him off his best career figures. Cherry Tortoni ran fantastic in the CS Hayes but may be crippled by the wide draw and I though Dom To Shoot was far from the worst. Had to make a long sustained run in the lead up but closed with intent. Happy to pot the Poland form line from Caulfield.

STRATEGY

TAGALOA

Hard to go past Tagaloa who bounced back in a big way in the CS Hayes. If he can reproduce last start he’ll be too good. Relishes high pressure races and that’s what we should see on Saturday and with the services of Luke Currie, he’ll go forward and be hard to get past. Also backing Aysar who will get the absolute run of the race and at $7 we’re getting a price. Each-way players need look no further than him. Best roughie in the race for mine is Dom To Shoot.

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!