Our best bet for Thursday's AFL clash between Geelong and St Kilda is the Saints +11.5 / Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals / Rowan Marshall 20+ Disposals / Mitch Owens 1+ Goals Same Game Multi at $4.60, with St Kilda covering the line in seven of their last eight against the Cats and Geelong entering with seven changes.
The Cats are in unfamiliar territory losing five of their last six games. Can the Saints capitalise when they head to GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night?
Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints
Geelong have dominated the Saints at GMHBA for a long time, but St Kilda have a real opportunity with the Cats entering this clash with seven changes, including Jeremy Cameron.
Despite this dominance at their home ground, Geelong have struggled against the Saints in recent times, with St Kilda winning four of their last seven meetings.
Can the Saints produce an upset to continue their wildcard run?
Leg 1 - St Kilda +11.5
The Saints may not have won at GMHBA Stadium since 1999, but in recent times they have played well against the Cats.
St Kilda have won four of the last seven against Geelong, all four as underdogs, and from their last eight games against the Cats they've covered the line in seven of those games, including their last five.
The Cats have covered the line just twice from their last six games, while St Kilda may have turned their season around, covering in four of their last five. Seven changes for the Cats will not help their cause.
Leg 2 - Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals
The Saints don't have a genuine tagger in their midfield mix, so although Wanganeen-Milera has been racking up the numbers, it won't affect someone like Bailey Smith.
Smith has hit 30+ disposals in 82% of his games this season, including seven of his last eight.
Butters was well and truly on the way to 30+ disposals last week before getting injured, while a few weeks ago Bont had 34 touches, so even if St Kilda cover in this we'll still see a big disposal tally for Smith.
Leg 3 - Rowan Marshall 20+ Disposals
The Mitch Edwards matchup has been extremely friendly to opposing rucks, and with TDK still sidelined we've seen Rowan Marshall go big the last few weeks.
With De Koning getting injured halfway through the Bulldogs game, Marshall's disposal numbers have gone through the roof in his absence, hitting 20+ in each of the last three games, including 29 last week against the Power.
Luke Jackson had 28 disposals against Edwards in Round 15, while Moyle had a season-high 14 against him in Round 14. I'd be shocked if Marshall doesn't get 20 in this with Blicavs being rested.
Leg 4 - Mitch Owens 1+ Goals
A solid return for Mitch Owens in 2026 with 18 goals from 14 games, and he's a nice price to hit the scoreboard once again.
Owens has kicked a goal in 11 of his 14 games this season, and has played well against Geelong in recent times, kicking two goals in each of his last three games against the Cats.
Same Game Multi
Saints +11.5 / Smith 30+ Disposals / Marshall 20+ Disposals / Owens 1+ Goals = $4.60
