Horse Racing Bets – G1 Melbourne Cup 2020 – Matt Shean’s Runner By Runner Preview | BlueBet

MELBOURNE CUP RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW

OVERVIEW

It’s the race that stops a nation and what an edition we have in 2020 for the running of the Melbourne Cup. A gruelling test over two miles at Flemington, that for the winner, cements their legacy forever in the annals of the Australian turf. Like I said, the field assembled for this year’s race is an absolute beauty. One of the strongest local contingents we’ve seen in some time will be joined by some of the strongest international raiders to ever grace our shores. Their looks angles galore and at the time of writing, BlueBet are currently betting $7 the field, so punters are sure to be rewarded with a healthy dividend should they be finding the winner.

SPEED MAP

Last year’s Cup was uncustomarily run at a below average tempo (7 lengths below benchmark to the 600m) and this year’s race, on paper at least, also looks devoid of speed. I can’t see that happening two years in a row however, so expect this race to be run at a genuine tempo ensuring all horses are given their chance. The main speed influences look the Team Williams pair in Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment who both sat handy to the speed in last year’s edition. Vow And Declare, Prince Of Arran and Finche all look to use their low draws to settle handy. There are a few go forward types drawn wider who may look to inject some speed into the race going past the post for the first time in the form of Etah James, Dashing Willoughby, and potentially Oceanex? Surprise Baby has drawn well and should settle midfield with Anthony Van Dyck, Miami Bound, The Chosen One, Stratum Albion and Russian Camelot. Very Elleegant, Sir Dragonet, Warning, Avilius and Mustajeer worse than midfield. Tiger Moth looks to get on the back of potentially a Russian Camelot in a three wide with cover line? King Of Leogrance, Persan, Ashrun, and Steel Prince, all look your backmarkers and will be hoping for a solid tempo to be able to make their way into the race.

1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK ($9.00) Hugh Bowman/Aiden O’Brien

Clear class galloper of the field who brings elite European form lines to Australian shores. Won an Epsom Derby at three before going on to run second in the Irish Derby at his next start. Had to settle for second again when resuming this year in the Coronation Cup where he bravely chased Ghaiyyath home over 2400m (beating home Stradivarius). Ghaiyyath is currently ranked as the best horse in the world so we can be sure it’s good form. Has had a run in Australia which always seems a positive for international raiders in the cup and I thought his run in the Caulfield Cup was huge. Had to go back from the wide draw and sustained a long run but just wasn’t quite good enough to wear down Verry Elleegant in the finish. Money was there for him that day to say he’d run well (SP $6). Has never been past 2400m but I don’t think two mile will worry him and he draws fantastic in gate 3 here for Hugh Bowman. Won’t have to spend a penny in the run. The knock is the weight. Only one horse since 1972 has carried 58kg or more to win the Melbourne Cup, that being Think Big in 1975. If he can overcome history in this regard then you’d have to think he’s a huge chance. Can win.

2. AVILIUS ($51) John Allen/James Cummings

Looked past his best at the start of this preparation but the addition of blinkers in his last two runs has seen somewhat of a return to form for the Godolphin galloper. Was good chasing Kolding in Sydney in the Hill Stakes, then ran a bottler in the Caulfield Cup where he copped interference at the top of the straight. Without it he probably finishes closer to the winner. Has had one go at the trip in the 2018 Cup where he copped huge interference and was basically retired out of the race so you can’t judge him on that. Going well but he probably needs a wet track to perform at his best and he won’t get that on Tuesday. Would be surprised if he was in the finish.

3. VOW AND DECLARE ($61) Jamie Mott/Danny O’Brien

2019 Cup winner who in 2020 is looking to become just the sixth horse in history to win multiple Melbourne Cups. Won a low rating Cup last year it must be said and rises 5kg in weight on what he carried to victory there. Just doesn’t look to be going as well this time in with fairly dour efforts in the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup at his last start. The current quote of $61 looks unders and couldn’t see him featuring.

4. MASTER OF REALITY ($21) Ben Melham/Joseph O’Brien

Very intriguing runner is Master Of Reality who ran 2nd in last year’s Cup before being demoted to 4th in the Stewards room for causing interference in the dying stages of the race. SP’ed $26 last year but looks to be going every bit as well this year, recording a dominant win at listed level over 2800 in Ireland at his last start. Got a soft run on speed last year and this year’s race does look to have more depth, but if he can recreate his run from twelve months ago, he has to be thereabouts. Would be looking at him more for top 10 markets.

5. SIR DRAGONET ($11) Glen Boss/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Big winner of the Cox Plate at his first run in Australia for the freak stable of Maher/Eustace who are simply airborne. Was absolutely truck loaded in the betting, crunching hard late from $15-$7.50 so it was a strong and confident move. That was a very strong run Cox Plate (5.5 lengths above benchmark to the 600m) which suited this horse’s ability to sustain a long run. Has shown in his overseas form that he is far better suited to a race shape where he can grind away rather than a sit/sprint so you’d think he would appreciate a genuinely run race here. On the flipside, there is a slight query all the same on him at two mile. Started hard in the market in a St Leger over 2900m where he loomed to win, but potentially didn’t quite see it out fading late to finish 4th. However, his work through the line in the Cox Plate (quickest final 800/600/400/200 of the race) was super strong so you could also argue that he has improved since then. Can tie him into a horse like Anthony Van Dyck who he met in the Epsom Derby last year and he started shorter in the market. He also beat a horse called Il Paradiso home in the St Leger. Il Paradiso came to Australia to contest the Melbourne Cup after that and was very unlucky not to win. Would have been right in calculations had there been any rain about, but with that said, he’s very hard to dismiss and looks a winning chance in the race.

6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($23) Jye McNeill/Joseph O’Brien

Another of the Team Williams runners who arrives here 12 months after finishing midfield in last year’s Cup. Hard to fault his form having won a Group 2 in Ireland two starts back, towelling up his stablemate Master Of Reality by 8 lengths (and SP’ing $1.50 v $6.50), so on that fact alone, you could make a case that he should be the shorter of the two. That being said, I’m not sure that that is the strongest form line being brought to this year’s race. He seemed to get his chance last year (SP’ing $41) and like I’ve mentioned a few times, this year’s race looks a much stronger edition. Coupled with the fact that he’s now an 8 year-old, it’s hard to make the case that he can improve on what he’s done previously. It’s also interesting to note that horses who return to race in the Cup for a second year have a very poor record. In the last 30 years, only two horses have won the Melbourne Cup having contested it the year before, those being Brew in 2000 and Fiorente in 2013. Betting around him.

7. VERRY ELLEEGANT ($12) Mark Zahra/Chris Waller

Caulfield Cup winner who has been near faultless this preparation claiming three Group 1’s and cementing herself as a superstar of Australian racing. She’s such an intriguing runner here. She was simply outstanding in the Caulfield Cup on a soft track. She still didn’t settle at any stage for mine but showed huge fight late to repel the challenges of Anthony Van Dyck who looked to have her cold. Has SP profile over AVD ($5 v $6) so that’s a tick in her favour and looking at her through the line the other day, you’d be hard pressed to say that she won’t get the trip. Yes, her peak career figures are on wet tracks but her record at 2400 plus is simply outstanding. She may just be an elite stayer. If she could win on Tuesday she’d join an illustrious group of gallopers who have been able to complete the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup double. That list includes Ethereal, Might And Power, Doriemus, and Let’s Elope.

Can she see out two mile? Can she do it on her less preferred racing surface? They’re the questions you need to ask yourself. I think she can, but at the current price I was happy to look away from her. Marked closer to $15 so if she was to get out slightly in the market, I think I’d have to have her on my side.

8. MUSTAJEER ($81) Michael Rodd/Kris Lees

Coming off a midfield finish in the Caulfield Cup (SP $101) where I thought his run wasn’t actually too bad recording the 5th quickest final 200m sectional of the race. Finished midfield prior to that in the G1 Metropolitan in Sydney. Rising 8 year-old now who looks like his best may be behind him. Also prefers a wet track which he won’t get here. Looks tested.

9. STRATUM ALBION ($41) Jordan Childs/Willie Mullins

8 year-old UK galloper who is more commonly seen over the hurdles back home. Looks an extremely dour type and although he’ll stay all day for the master trainer Willie Mullins, I don’t think he’s a winning chance in the race come Tuesday.

10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY ($81) Michael Walker/Andrew Balding

Lightly raced 5 year-old who actually has some strong European form to his name towards the end of last year. Ridden up to lead last start in the Caulfield Cup (SP $31) but dropped right out nearing the turn and was eventually beaten 27 lengths. Not the lead-up run of a coming Cup winner.

11. FINCHE ($18) James McDonald/Chris Waller

Started favourite in this race last year coming off a 5th placing in the Caulfield Cup, a placing that he replicated in 2020. Going really well this preparation without winning, which does seem to be the downside to this horse (has only won one race in Australia now from 10 starts). Was very well supported in the Turnbull ($9-$5.50) where he was just edged out by Verry Elleegant and then was caught deep the other day in the Caulfield Cup (SP $9). Maps great here with leading hoop James McDonald in the saddle so there are a few ticks. His best figures show that he’s probably a few lengths off being able to win, but nevertheless he runs really well and looks a lock for a top 10 finish.

12. PRINCE OF ARRAN ($10) Jamie Kah/Charlie Fellows

Globe trotting iron horse who returns for his third stint in the cup after running third in 2018 and second last year after being elevated due to protest. Just seems to excel racing in Australia, having also claimed a Lexus Stakes and a Geelong Cup either side of his Melbourne Cup runs. Runs Tuesday 2nd up after a huge effort in the Caulfield Cup (SP $17). Had to be dragged back from a wide gate, then attempted to loop the entire field after they only went at an even tempo and hit the line sensationally. Recorded the fastest last 200m of the race so is looking for the step to 3200m now and you just have to love the fact that he’s been there and done it before. Appreciates good ground and should be afforded a lovely run here from gate 1 with the in form Jamie Kah aboard. They tend to get right off the fence in Melbourne Cups in the straight so I think this horse will get his chance and only goes up half a kilo from what he was asked to carry last year. Right in the race.

13. SURPRISE BABY ($7.50) Craig Williams/Paul Preusker

Unmistakably the run of the race last year and probably unlucky not to win. Got too far back from the draw in a slowly run race but unleashed a serious turn of foot to be beaten less than a length. His last 600m figure of 10 lengths above benchmark was a race best and quickly installed him as the early favourite for this race a year later. The query with him this time is the set-up. Comes into the race third up, 4 weeks between runs, which was the platform used last year however the difference is he jumps sharply in trip 2000-3200. Furthermore, prior to last year’s Cup, Surprise Baby had had 8 runs in the calendar year. Compare that to this year where he’s only had two runs all year. No doubt has the talent to win and maps for a fantastic run in transit with one of the best in the business in C Williams aboard. Just at the price I’m happy to take him on. Feel he might be slightly underdone and don’t feel that his lead-up runs have been as good as what he’s produced in the past. With that said, he’s sure to have admirers and has already attracted good money firming from $9-$7.50.

14. KING OF LEOGRANCE ($61) Damian Lane/Danny O’Brien

3200m winner of the Adelaide Cup earlier this year then ran runner-up in the Andrew Ramsden behind Oceanex. Was ordinary first up in the Turnbull before an improved effort the other day in the Geelong Cup (2400m) behind Steel Prince. Genuine stayer who will see the trip right out and has a strong SP profile so wouldn’t be surprised to see him do something here. The draw makes it hard for him but I think he’ll run well. Top 10 chance.

15. RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($12) Damien Oliver/Danny O’Brien

The Russian lines up this year’s Melbourne Cup as perhaps the most talked about and hyped Australian horse to contest our great race for some time. The money came for him again last start in the Cox Plate (SP $3.50) and his effort was more than sound sitting handy to a brutal tempo and sticking on for third behind Sir Dragonet and Armory. Has been set for this race all along and is bred to stay, evidenced by a dominant win in the SA Derby in the Autumn (2500m). I think this horse is 12 months away from being a deadset superstar, and although he is already very good, he might just do a few too many things wrong to be able to win a high pressure race like a Melbourne Cup at this stage of his career. The other knock is that his career best figures have all come on rain affected tracks, which he won’t see on Tuesday. Can’t wait to see how he goes but will be letting him go around without me from a wagering perspective.

16. STEEL PRINCE ($41) William Pike/Anthony & Sam Freedman

Last start Geelong Cup winner (2400m) who is flying this preparation for the Freedman camp. Ashrun has already come out of that race at Geelong and won so the form has somewhat been franked. Another who contested the race last year, finishing 9th only beaten 2 lengths at $61. Career peaks are all at Flemington so he loves racing here and will appreciate getting onto a firm track. Although he may be slightly outclassed by a few he’s another that has a great chance of sneaking into a top 10 position and is a must for exotics players.

17. THE CHOSEN ONE ($34) Daniel Stackhouse/Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman

Ran close to a career peak last start with a slashing third in the Caulfield Cup behind Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck (SP $61). Got all favours from gate 2 and a super ride from Daniel Stackhouse so hard to really see him turning the tables on the top two, not to mention Prince of Arran and Finche who had much tougher runs. Finished second in the Sydney Cup in the Autumn so we know he can stay the trip, but is very hard to catch and on relative SP’s, it’s hard to make a case for him as a winning proposition in this race.

18. ASHRUN ($23) Declan Bates/Andreas Wohler

Want to make a really strong case for this galloper who backs up from Derby Day where he claimed the last spot in the Cup by winning the Hotham (2500m). Thought his 1st up run in Australia at Geelong was very good, simply not suited by the mid-race slow down and the stop/start nature of the race. His work through the line there was very good and signalled that he had travelled well. His win in the Hotham was outstanding. Was not suited at all getting right back off a very slow tempo (4 lengths slow to the 600), but overcame it unleashing a strong and sustained sprint to claim Sound in the shadows of the post to book his spot in the field. It was a sprint home but his sectionals were brilliant, his last 200m of 11.62 the 9th quickest L200 of the entire meeting. Brings good overseas form, will eat up two mile, and has the right connections being trained by Andreas Wohler who knows a thing or two about winning this race (trained Protectionist to win in 2014). Has come up with the visitors draw so will need the speed on, but if he gets it I think he’s a huge chance of unleashing a big run down the outside and can certainly be in the finish. Looks a great each-way bet at the $23 currently on offer.

19. WARNING ($51) Luke Currie/Anthony & Sam Freedman

Last year’s Derby winner who looked like he was returning to form after a strong effort in the Turnbull but disappointed finishing down the track in the Caulfield Cup. Has only won the two races from 16 starts, with both coming at Flemington so that is some angle to say that he reserves his best for this track. Nevertheless, his form looks patchy at best and I’d be surprised if he could win here. Not for me.

20. ETAH JAMES ($91) Billy Egan/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

2020 Sydney Cup winner so deserves her place in the field. Finished down the track in the G1 Metropolitan (SP $51) 1st up before an improved effort at her last start outing when she was beaten 4 lengths by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Outclassed in this.

21. TIGER MOTH ($7.00) Kerrin McEvoy/Aiden O’Brien

Exciting young stayer looking to give Aiden O’Brien his first Melbourne Cup at just his fifth career start. Current favourite who has been well supported in early markets and it’s easy to see why. Was outstanding in the Irish Derby (2400m) where he chased home a smart one in Santiago. Then romped away with the G3 Kilternan at his last start, looking like a beast in a 4 length rout that rated highly. Profiles so similar to recent cup winners Cross Counter and Rekindling. They were all northern hemisphere three-year olds, lightly raced, and are weighted to win this race. The last five winners of the cup have carried 52, 51, 51.5, 52 and 53kg so he fits that profile and just looks to have so much upside. Untested beyond 2400m but everything he’s done has signaled he’ll get the two mile on his ear. Is in the camp of the best trainer in the world who has targeted this race from a long way out. Gets the services of K McEvoy who has the equal most amount of Cup wins of any jockey in this field. Ticks galore. Has drawn wide in 23 so will needs things to fall into place, along with a genuine tempo, but if they do he looks mighty hard to hold out.

22. OCEANEX ($67) Dean Yendall/Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

Guaranteed a start in this year’s Melbourne Cup with a golden ticket through winning the Andrew Ramsden back in May over 2800m at Flemington. Has looked fairly plain this preparation before a decent run last time out in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup finishing 3 lengths astern of Miami Bound. Gets in light but looks outclassed in this, especially from the draw where she may be caught deep early.

23. MIAMI BOUND ($34) Daniel Moor/Danny O’Brien

Strong last start winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup which assured her a start in this race. That was a high rating race sit up by a strong early tempo, so it was encouraging to see this mare so strong at the end of the 2500m. Think she’ll definitely get two miles and the biggest win of her career came 12 months ago here when she bolted up in an Oaks. I think she’s better suited to a wet track but despite that her dry track stats aren’t hopeless. Another one that’s hard to see winning but think she’s more than capable of outperforming her SP if she can get an economical run in the race.

24. PERSAN ($34) Michael Dee/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Forced his way into the field off a strong win in the Bart Cummings (2500m). That does look the B grade form for a Melbourne Cup and the niggle is the 4 weeks between runs. Has been flying ever since he joined the stable of Maher and Eustace but don’t think he has the class to be in the finish here.

PICKS

1. TIGER MOTH
2. ASHRUN
3. ANTHONY VAN DYCK
4. PRINCE OF ARRAN

Outstanding edition of the 2020 Melbourne Cup with a host of chances and more questions than answers when it comes to the majority of the field. That makes for a fantastic betting market and it will be no surprise to see admirers for a number of runners. Settled on an all international first 4. Tiger Moth on top. He just ticks so many boxes and profiles so similar to previous international raiders who have come and achieved Melbourne Cup glory. He’s got the right weight, the right connections, and so much upside that I think at $7 you have to have him on your side. Keen to back him. Ashrun looks the best roughie to my eye and I think he can win following on from a big win in the Hotham on Derby Day. Needs speed on in the race having drawn an awkward alley, but may be the best stayer in the race and if he can handle the quick back-up, he looks long odds in this. Anthony Van Dyck cannot be discounted. He is clearly the class runner of this field and I don’t think the two mile will pose him any issues. If he can defy history and carry the weight, he’s no doubt a big player. Prince Of Arran best of the rest. Was huge in the Caulfield Cup and has done it all before. What a race!

Good luck punters!

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