NRL Round 18 Preview
Round 17 was filled with both scintillating attack and rock solid defence as a couple of teams broke losing streaks, a superstar returned and the race for a home finals spot got even more interesting. Read on as we cast our eye over round 18, which includes a couple grudge matches and some interesting matches in terms of betting.
Wests Tigers ($3.10) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.37)
Thursday, 10th September 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
Round 18 kicks off with the Wests Tigers taking on the South Sydney Rabbitohs as Tigers coach Michael Maguire faces the side whom he won the 2014 premiership with. This will be the second time that Maguire has faced the Rabbitohs this season, with their first meeting coming back in round 9 and resulting in an unhappy 18-10 loss at Bankwest Stadium. In this match the Rabbitohs ran out to an 18-0 lead thanks to a hattrick of tries to Dane Gagai, who looks to return from a hamstring injury this week. Last week saw two polar opposite performances from both sides as the Tigers came from 32-18 down with 12 minutes to go to win 34-32 whilst the Rabbitohs gave away a 16-10 lead in a 22-16 loss to the Storm. This loss was the Bunnies first in five weeks and they will be hoping to bounce back and make it their fourth win from their last five meetings against the Tigers. As mentioned previously Gagai will look to return from injury this week and has been named on the wing in place of Jaxson Paulo whilst Souths only other change is the loss of Tevita Tatola as Liam Knight starts at prop and Jed Cartwright joins the bench. On the other hand the Tigers will name the same 17 from last week's high scoring affair. In recent history the Rabbitohs have dominated this contest and come into this game with much better form than the inconsistent Tigers. With the Rabbitohs chance of a home final on the line as well as the Tigers coming off a tough five day backup then we’re leaning towards Souths in this one. For a little bit of extra value we’re quite confident on the Souths line as they take on a Tigers defence that can concede points quickly, as seen by them conceding over 30 points in their last three matches.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -7.5 $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.80) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($1.44)
Friday, 11th September 6:00pm, ANZ Stadium
Friday’s first fixture is another where a coach faces their former team as the Des Hasler led Manly Sea Eagles take on the Canterbury Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium. Hasler will be hoping to continue his 100% record of games against the Bulldogs since leaving them but will have to overcome the current six game losing streak that his Manly side are on if he is to do that. Throughout this streak their defence has continued to hurt them as they average over 30 points conceded per game in the last six weeks and with a 34-32 loss to the Tigers from last week they will be hoping for a much improved defensive effort. In this loss they gave up a 14 point lead with 12 minutes to go as they were helpless against a rampaging Tigers side. For the Bulldogs they suffered their sixth consecutive loss in a 18-14 defeat to the Titans in a match where their lack of creativity in attack was exposed as star half Kieran Foran went down with another injury. As a result of this injury Jake Averillo will start at five eight in what is one of a host of changes to the Bulldogs side. In the backs Jayden Okunbor will play his first game of the year on the wing as Dallin Watene-Zelezniak moves into the centres with Reimis Smith. In the forwards Luke Thompson starts at lock with Aiden Tolman starting at prop and Dylan Napa out with injury & Brandon Wakeham and Sauaso Sue join the bench. For the Sea Eagles they lose two promising backline members as Jorge Taufua & Josh Schuster will miss the rest of the year with injury and are replaced by Abbas Miski on the wing and Cade Cust in the halves. As mentioned previously the Sea Eagles have been the dominant force in this contest in winning four of the last five but with both sides being a shadow of their former selves and missing some key attacking players then we are predicting a tight contest between the sides. On the basis of previous history and an improved attacking effort from the Sea Eagles last week then we’ll lean towards them as they look to break one of their worst losing streaks in recent years.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles 1-12 $2.80
Penrith Panthers ($1.37) vs Parramatta Eels ($3.10)
Friday, 11th September 7:55pm, Panthers Stadium
Arguably the game of the round as we see a top four clash between the first placed Penrith Panthers and their Sydney rivals the third placed Parramatta Eels at Panthers Stadium. Both sides will be desperate for a strong showing in this one as it is their last fixture against a fellow top eight team before the seasons end and with the chance to move a step closer to the minor premiership for the Panthers and the top four for the Eels then there is plenty to play for. Last week the Panthers extended their winning streak to 12 as they defeated a resilient Broncos side 25-12 in what was their first victory against the Broncos in their last four meetings. If they are to continue their streak this week then they will have to avenge their last loss, which came against the Eels back in round 5 in a 16-10 defeat where they surrendered a 10-0 lead with 20 minutes to go. If the Eels are to earn two consecutive wins against the Panthers then they will need to improve massively from last week's performance as they downed the Warriors 24-18 and had plenty of chances to put the game to bed but failed to capitalise. The Eels will also be without Marata Niukore for this one as he is replaced by Andrew Davey on the bench and starting hooker Reed Mahoney is in doubt with a shoulder injury. For the Panthers they welcome back Isaah Yeo at lock from a head knock as James Fisher-Harris returns to prop, Moses Leota to the bench and Kurt Capewell out of the side. Despite the Eels' return to winning ways last week they still looked a shadow of the side that they were in the opening two months of the competition, especially in attack and for this reason we’re leaning towards the Panthers to get revenge on their round five loss. Add to the fact that the Panthers get Yeo back and the Eels will possibly lose their hooker then we will take the Panthers with the line, which is something that they have covered in four of their last six wins.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -7.5 $1.90
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.85) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.42)
Saturday, 12th September 3:00pm, WIN Stadium
Saturday’s first game sees a clash between the St. George Illawarra Dragons and the Canberra Raiders at WIN Stadium in Wollongong. Both sides will be desperate for wins as they come off losses last week against sides that they would have fancied their chances against. For the Raiders they went down 18-6 to the Roosters despite having their fair share of opportunities and they will be ruing the 15 errors that they made at critical times throughout the match. Similarly the Dragons gave up an 18-12 lead against the Cowboys as they lost 23-22 in golden point in a match that highlighted their lack of stability in their spine. This week they will be hoping to avenge a 22-16 loss to the Raiders from back in round 8, a match where they trailed 22-0 only to run out of time after an inspiring comeback in the last 20 minutes. This loss was their second in a row to the Raiders and they will be hoping that the return of Paul Vaughan from suspension can add some strength up front against what is a mammoth Raiders pack. As a result of Vaughan’s return & Kaide Ellis’ move into the starting side Tyrell Fuimaono drops out of the side with Josh Kerr and Blake Lawrie moving to the bench. Mikaele Ravalawa also misses out through injury with Cody Ramsey debuting on the wing. For the Raiders they will line up with the same 17 from last week’s loss despite the injury concern to star forward Josh Papalii. Despite the small reshuffle in the Dragon's side and their poor record of one win from their last four meetings the Dragons remain relatively fair in the market. As a result we’re quite keen to take them on as their last three matches have come against three of the bottom four sides and with only one win to show from it they look under the odds for this week's match against the fifth placed Raiders. With the Raiders winning four from five after a loss then we are confident in them defeating the Dragons and covering the line in the process.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -6.5 $1.95
Gold Coast Titans ($1.68) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.20)
Saturday, 12th September 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium
A classic case of not-so-little brother versus big brother is brought to us in the Queensland derby as the 13th placed Gold Coast Titans take on the 15th placed Brisbane Broncos at Cbus Super Stadium. The Titans currently lay claim to Queenslands best NRL team as they sit above both the Broncos & the Cowboys in season 2020 and they will be desperate to add to their 30-12 victory against the Broncos from round 7 of this year. This victory stunned the competition and summed up the Broncos season as they made 14 errors and missed 37 tackles in another poor defensive effort. Thankfully for Broncos fans they showed an improved defensive effort in last week's match as they held the competition leaders to 25 points in a 13 point loss to the Panthers. This was the first time that they had kept a team to 25 points or under since their last victory against the Bulldogs in round 9. Last week for the Titans they earned their third win in their last five matches as they defeated the Bulldogs 18-14 in a much improved defensive effort and another strong showing from halfback Jamal Fogarty. Unfortunately for the Titans they will lose centre Brian Kelly and prop Jaimin Joliffe to injury as Beau Fermor comes into the centres, Keegan Hipgrave into the back row, Moeaki Fotuaika into the front row and Jai Whitbread joins the bench. For the Broncos they welcome back captain Alex Glenn from injury as he starts in the back row with Ben Teo moving to the bench whilst Joe Ofahengaue and Xavier Coates join the bench in place of Jordan Riki and Ethan Bullemor. Despite both sides contrasting form the market has them relatively even for this one and for this reason we are looking towards the total points market, where there appears to be a bit of value. In four of the last five games between the two sides the total points has gone under this week’s line and with both sides featuring in matches that went under the total points in last week's match then we’re predicting another low scoring affair between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 44.5 $1.88
Sydney Roosters ($1.09) vs Newcastle Knights ($7.50)
Saturday, 12th September 7:35pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Saturday’s final game sees a top eight clash between the fourth placed Sydney Roosters and the sixth placed Newcastle Knights at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Both sides come into the game on the back of some dominant form with the Roosters on a three game winning streak whilst the Knights have won four of their last five. For the Roosters their wins have come against the Tigers, Broncos and most recently the Raiders, which was a dominant 18-6 victory highlighted by a two try effort from star fullback James Tedesco. On the other hand the Knights have defeated the Tigers, Sea Eagles, Cowboys & Sharks but lost to the Warriors two weeks ago, but their most recent win against the Sharks was on the back of a return to form of their attack as they ran out 38-10 victors thanks to three tries from their own star fullback Kalyn Ponga. If they are to continue this attacking form then they will have to overcome the competition's equal third best defence as well as a poor record of one win from their last eight meetings with the Roosters. To make matters worse is the fact that fullback Kalyn Ponga, forward Mitch Barnett & back Hymel Hunt are all being rested forcing Tex Hoy into the fullback role, Herman Ese’ese to lock, Edrick Lee onto the wing and Daniel Saifiti onto the bench. On the other hand the Roosters go from strength to strength as hooker Jake Friend returns from injury with Joey Lussick dropping out of the 17. As mentioned previously the Roosters have dominated this contest and with the inclusion of Friend for the Roosters and the Knights losses then it’s hard to see anything but a Roosters victory. Unfortunately the market hasn’t missed this and the Roosters are heavy favourites but with the Knights key outs we’re still confident in the Roosters covering the big line, which is something that they have done in their last three victories.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -18.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.09) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($7.50)
Sunday, 13th September 4:05pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
A battle between two old rivals who are unfortunately at opposite ends of the table this year as the second placed Melbourne Storm take on the 14th placed North Queensland Cowboys at Sunshine Coast Stadium. Once one of the great modern day rivalries highlighted by a plethora of Queensland stars in both sides is sadly no longer with the Cowboys struggling with just one win from their last ten meetings in comparison to the Storms nine wins from their last ten. Thankfully for the Cowboys this win came last week as they defeated the Dragons 23-22 in golden point thanks to an inspiring performance from Valentine Holmes and former Melbourne player Scott Drinkwater. Despite this the Cowboys will start rank outsiders in this one as they come up against a side who boast the last ten wins against them and made light work of the Rabbitohs last week. In this victory the Storm never really looked settled but managed to stay in the fight to earn a 22-16 victory as the energy of their fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen lifted them over the line again. Unfortunately for the Storm they will be without Papenhuyzen this week due to an achilles issue as Nicho Hynes takes his fullback spot but they welcome back Suliasi Vunivalu onto the wing, Nelson Asofa-Solomona into the forwards and Ryley Jacks onto the bench with Christian Welch & Chris Lewis both out. On the other hand the Cowboys will stick with the same 17 from last week's victory as they look to secure back-to-back wins for the first time since rounds two & three. With the Storm suffering some key outs in terms of their attack then we are leaning towards the Cowboys with the start in this one. Melbourne hasn’t been missed in the market and as a result the Cowboys line is massive and with their biggest loss in their last four matches against the Storm being 16 points then we will take the Cowboys with the start in this one.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys +18.5 $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($1.55) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.45)
Sunday, 13th September, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
One of the more interesting games of the round sees the 8th placed Cronulla Sharks take on the 10th placed New Zealand Warriors at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. For the Warriors this is their last chance to stake a claim towards a top eight spot as a win against the Sharks will see them move to just one win behind the men from Cronulla and will heap the already massive pressure onto them even more. This pressure stems from the Sharks shaky performances against top eight teams throughout the year, which was again highlighted last
week in a 38-10 loss to the Knights. In this loss their defence completely caved as they missed 40 tackles and made 11 errors, resulting in a 72% completion rate and only 43% possession. Without the ball the Sharks seem to get lost and the Warriors unpredictable attack will be licking their lips at the prospect of this week's matchup. If the Warriors had won last week then this match would have even more weight attached to it but unfortunately their 24-18 loss leaves them with a must-win situation in all of their remaining matches. Thankfully for the Warriors they welcome back Eels loan players George Jennings & Daniel Alvaro as Gerard Beale & Josh Curran drop out whilst Isaiah Papali’i starts at prop with Lachlan Burr dropping back to the pine. For the Sharks they lose Chad Townsend & Wade Graham to suspension with Shaun Johnson partnering Connor Tracey in the halves whilst Siosifa Talakai takes Graham’s back row spot and Sione Katoa returns from injury on the wing in place of Bryson Goodwin. In recent history the Sharks have dominated this contest in winning six of their last seven meetings, including a 46-10 victory from round 10 of this year but the Warriors still remain firm outsiders in the current market. With the Sharks personnel losses as well as the Warriors inspiring form that has seen them cover the line in their last four matches then we are leaning towards the Warriors here. As a result we’re going to take the Warriors with the start in this one as they look to hold onto their slim chances of playing finals.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors +4.5 $1.85
