Round 6
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
July 9th (Thursday 7.40pm) SCG
How weird is this season?! Geelong are playing Brisbane in Sydney on a Thursday night. The Cats have moved up to Sydney to base themselves here for an extended time while the AFL sorts out the next fixtures due to the Covid-19 situation. They are coming off a strong win vs the Suns last week where they were tested for three qtrs but eventually were too strong for the young Suns. Dangerfield and Selwood led the charge and if they are to win Thursday night they will need to step up again to combat this Lions side who are red hot. The Lions on the other hand had an amazing win vs the Power who many thought were a flag threat, they destroyed them from the get go and the Power couldn’t control the Lions run and carry from the backline. A huge in for the Lions is Zorko who missed last week's game with a calf injury he adds spark and usually kicks 2-3 goals a game. In saying all that I am tipping the Cats to win this game as they have settled in Sydney and the Lions are flying in today then flying out tonight and will be a strain on the body. Cats by 12+
H2H
Geelong have won four of the last five games vs the Lions
Best Bet
Cats +6.5 $1.90
Cats win $2.25
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
July 10th (Friday 7.40pm) Giants Stadium
Huge Friday night game for the Pies here. The last time they came to Giants stadium was only two weeks ago when they lost to the Giants by 4 points. That game will give them some confidence coming up against a Hawks side who was belted by the Giants last weekend. The Pies need a win to erase all the bad press about them at the moment with De Goey off field scandal and Sidebottom breaching covid protocols. They bring in two players I don’t know too much this weekend to make their debut. Hopefully they can add a lot of run and carry that the Pies are crying out for. The Hawks on the other hand need a win to stay in the 8 and make a run at this year's finals. They were outclassed last weekend and looked tired. They have relocated to Sydney for the foreseeable future and need to make this game theirs from the start. They bring back Patton but lose Lewis to an ankle injury. Patton needs to impact the scoreboard this weekend and the Hawks will win this if he can kick a bag. I am tipping the Hawks in a close one.
H2H
Hawks have won four of the last five games vs the Pies
Best Bet
Hawks +5.5 $1.90
Hawks win $2.15
Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints
July 11th (Saturday 1.04pm) Metricon Stadium
Brad Hill comes up against his old side for the first time since he was traded from the Dockers to the Saints and boy oh boy wouldn’t the Dockers love his elite kicking skills and his running tank. He has added so much to this Saints side who last year couldn’t kick more than 15m without missing a target. Saints are in reasonable form but I would need to see a little more than beating Carlton by 20 points last week to suggest they are a threat to the finals. Dan Hannebery is out with a hamstring injury which isn’t great for him as he was building up to his old Swans days. The Dockers on the other hand had a good win against the Crows last weekend to get their first win of season 2020. It wasn’t a pretty win but a win is a win in season 2020 and they will take what they can get at the moment. Shame Jesse Hogan is out with a calf injury as he has been good for the Dockers in season 2020. Nat Fyfe is back from his hamstring injury he could turn this game for 1 qtr and the Dockers can pinch this one. In saying that I think the Saints will to strong for the Dockers but it will not be a blow out.
H2H
Saints have won three of the last five games vs the Dockers
Best Bet
Freo +16.5 $1.90
West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows
July 11th (Saturday 3.30pm) Gabba
My prayers go out to Riley O'brien the Crows ruckman who tweeted his game plan to play against Nic Natanui. He called Nic unfit and slow who struggles to get around the ground. I'm unsure if Riley watched the Nic game last weekend vs the Swans where he was awarded 10 coaches votes for his dominant performance against the Swans ruckman. The Eagles last weekend had a good win vs the Swans to get their first win in the sunshine state. Their midfield was on fire led by Yeo and Gaff they were on from the first bounce. They lose their captain Luke Shuey to a minor hamstring injury but I think Tim Kelly can finally get the room he has been crying out for to dominate a game. The Crows are in for a tough one and no Taylor Walker will hurt their chances of winning this one as he does add a target when going forward. Eagles bring in Cameron and Ainsworth, while the Crows have brought in Mackay for Walker. Eagles win this by god knows what.
H2H
Eagles have won four of the last five games vs the Crows
Best Bet
Eagles -30.5 $1.90
Eagles 40+ $2.45
Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns
July 11th (Saturday 6.05pm) Giants Stadium
Huge Saturday night game between two sides who are polar opposites. The Suns are up and about who are having a go this year and would love to knock off a side they haven’t beaten in their last five games against them. The Dees were shocking last weekend against a Tigers side who had one on the bench come the last qtr. Their skills were shocking and instead of looking like an AFL side they looked like an under 14 side. Since the Demons made the 2018 prelim final they have won 6 games and lost 21 times. They have dropped Tomlinson this weekend who Goodwin fought so hard to get from the Giants in the trade period, he is a nothing player who never makes an impact on the game, so no real loss for the Giants there. The Suns lost their best young player in Matt Rowell who is out for the season with a shoulder injury but they bring in Rankine who is a jet and has speed to burn. Bennell is in for the Dees to play against his old side, he adds polish to this side who can’t hit targets at the moment. Suns win this for me on Saturday.
H2H
Demons have won five of the last five games vs the Suns
Best Bet
Suns +4.5 $1.90
Suns win $2.10
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
July 11th (Saturday 7.40pm) Metricon Stadium
Two old rivals going up against each other on the Gold Coast is very weird. The Bombers were very good last weekend vs the Pies, they took the foot off the gas in the last qtr but the damage was done and got the chocolates. The win did come at a cost with Stringer hurting his ankle and looks to be out for an extended period. Merrett and Mckenna are back for the Bombers who will add elite kicking skills to their side. The Kangas last week put in a shocking performance against the Dogs, they look a very slow and hard team to get a gauge on. Play good for one qtr but then throw it away for a half and it’s game over. Cunnington came back into the side last weekend but hurt his back again in the third qtr and will miss this weekend. In saying all that the trip away might be a blessing for the Kangaroos but on recent performances I can’t tip them this weekend vs the Bombers.
H2H
Bombers have won four of the last five games vs the Kangaroos
Best Bet
Bombers win $1.65
Bombers -7.5 $1.90
GWS Giants vs Port Adelaide Power
July 12th (Sunday 1.05pm) Metricon Stadium
Sunday's first game will be good viewing. The Giants have found some form against the Hawks and the Pies and will look to take that form into a game against a Power side who everyone is raving about. They lost to the Lions last weekend so I am not completely convinced of the Power who haven’t really beaten anyone while being on the Gold Coast. The Eagles are on a footy trip and the Dockers will finish bottom three. We will get a better look at how good they are this weekend. The Giants have a lot to play for this weekend with it being Toby Greene's 150th game for the Giants since making his debut in 2012. What a player he has been for the club, bashed by opposition fans but jeez you’d love to be a teammate of his. Gives everything for his club and his teammates. Ward and Jacobs are back for the Giants which just adds another level to their midfield while Burton is back for the Power. I am tipping a Giants win and Greene to kick a bag.
H2H
Giants have won five of the last five games vs the Power
Best Bet
Giants win $1.87
Giants -1.5 $1.90
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
July 12th (Sunday 3.05pm) Gabba
Tigers have moved up to the Sunshine state without a few of their stars who have opted to stay home and look after newborns which is fair enough and I like that the Tigers have allowed that shows that the club is a family club. They played well enough to get the win against the Demons last weekend and will take that form in against a Swans team that looks very tired and out of fresh legs. The Swans midfield is working overtime and not getting any reward for their effort with no real target coming into the forward line. Buddy is out for an extended time and they are crying out for a key position player asap. The Tigers will run over this young Swans side I tipping the line of the Tigers is the bet of the week. Dustin Martin last outing to the Gabba was 6 goals in a final. What's he going to do this weekend? Tigers by 40+
H2H
Tigers have won three of the last five games vs the Swans
Best Bet
Tigers win $1.71
Tigers -4.5 $1.90
Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs
July 12th (Sunday 6.45pm) Metricon Stadium
Double header at Metricon with the Blues and Dogs to round out 6. The ground will be in shocking condition come this game with the Power and Giants playing earlier in the day. No excuses though both these sides need a win. The Blues were ok against the Saints last weekend but again brought into their own hype and couldn’t get into the game letting in the first 4 goals of the game. They can’t do that this weekend against a Bulldogs side last weekend who destroyed the Kangaroos. Josh Bruce answered the critics throughout the week with six goals in a dominant performance if he brings that form against the Blues this weekend the Dogs will win and they will win well. The Dogs line is -10.5 which is a get on early.
H2H
Dogs have won four of the last five games vs the Blues
Best Bet
Dogs win $1.53
Dogs -10.5 $1.90
