NRL Round 8 Preview
Last round was marred by a host of injuries to star players for teams entrenched within the top 8 as well as some upset performances with a couple teams in the bottom 8 knocking off some top 8 teams too. Read on this week as we preview the first round of July and cast our eye over some interesting matchups.
Melbourne Storm ($2.85) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.42)
Thursday, 2nd July 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
A rematch of the 2018 grand final sees the Melbourne Storm welcome the Sydney Roosters to their unfamiliar home ground of Suncorp Stadium in what looks to be a Thursday night blockbuster between two teams entrenched in the top four. Both teams will be desperate for a win this week with a number of teams knocking on the door of the 3rd & 4th place that these two teams currently hold and with a rich history of nail biting games we expect there’ll be more of the same to come Thursday. Last week both teams were mightily impressive too with the Storm bouncing back from a loss to the Panthers with a 44 point victory over the Warriors, which was highlighted by their back 5 contributing 8 of the 9 tries that they scored. For the Roosters they downed the Dragons by 14 points thanks to a vintage performance from Brett Morris as he picked up a hattrick of tries with the Roosters missing James Tedesco, Josh Morris & Nat Butcher as well as losing a couple of players to injury during the game. These injuries have had an impact on the Roosters team for this week as both Victor Radley & Sam Verrills are out for the season with ACL injuries whilst Isaac Liu is out for one month with broken ribs. As a result Butcher returns to the side in Radley’s lock position, Jake Friend takes Verrills starting hooker position, Mitch Aubusson and Poasa Faamausili take their place on the bench and Tedesco & Morris return in the backline. Similarly, the Storm have also been dealt a major blow as representative five eight Cameron Munster is out with a knee injury as Ryley Jacks comes into the halves. In recent history the Roosters have held the upper hand over the Storm in winning 3 of their last 4 meetings since the 2018 grand final in what has typically been low scoring clashes. In fact in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these sides their total points have been 29 points or under, which is well under this week's total points line. Add to the fact that both teams are averaging under 12 points conceded per game this year and that they are both missing a number of players then we are happy to look at the unders between these two sides to start off the round.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 35.5 Points $1.88
Canberra Raiders ($1.25) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($3.95)
Friday, 3rd July 6:00pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Two teams coming off losses in the Canberra Raiders & the St. George Illawarra Dragons meet for the first game on Friday with plenty to play for for both teams. For the Raiders they will be desperate to silence their critics as their form has seen them manage just one win from their last four games as they have dropped down to 7th on the table. During this period their normally rock solid defence has been exposed a number of times as they conceded over 30 points to the Knights and missed a huge 54 tackles in their golden point loss to the Eels last week. To add to this their coach Ricky Stuart has been vocal about their defensive efforts and he will be hoping that they can make it back to back wins against the Dragons for the first time since 2013, with the Raiders holding 2 wins in comparison to the Dragons 4 in their last 6 matches. For the Dragons their two match winning streak was broken by the Roosters as they failed to make a dent in the Roosters defence despite winning the possession count. Despite the loss this was one of the Dragons better efforts this year and as a result coach Paul McGregor has kept faith with the same 17 for this week's clash. On the other hand the Raiders have made a couple of changes with Jordan Rapana dropping out of the side as Bailey Simonsson takes his spot on the wing, Michael Oldfied coming into the centres for Curtis Scott who moves to the bench and Joe Tapine returns from injury in the place of Corey Horsburgh who is also injured. During this 6 match period 4 of the 6 meetings have been decided by 8 points or less and with the Raiders seemingly out of the form that saw them defeat the Dragons by 22 points last year then we are leaning towards another close encounter. Although the Raiders are out of form we still believe that they can take plenty of positives out of a golden point loss to the top of the table Eels and that they will have enough to see off the Dragons, albeit in a close one.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $3.00
Parramatta Eels ($1.33) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30)
Friday, 3rd July 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first game at Bankwest Stadium for the round sees the top of the table Parramatta Eels take on the ninth placed North Queensland Cowboys as they look to alter a poor record against the men from north. Over recent history the Cowboys have dominated this contest in winning the last 2 meetings and 4 of the last 5 but with the Eels in arguably their best form in years both teams will be fancying their chances. The Eels confidence stems from their reinvigorated attack that has seen them average just over 22 points per game whilst conceding just over 12 points per game as they have dropped just one game all season. For the Cowboys their season looked in tatters after 3 straight losses where they conceded 99 points but they showed a return to form last week with a 32-20 victory over the previously second placed Knights after leading 26-0 at halftime. This victory was largely thanks to a much improved performance from their halves as they straightened up their attack and showed a much more controlled kicking game. As a result Cowboys coach Paul Green has stuck with the same 17 that took the field last week but it will be important to watch close to kickoff as both Valentine Holmes & Jake Granville are named on the extended bench. On the other hand the Eels have been forced into handing former Dragon Jai Field his club debut as star halfback Mitch Moses is out with a calf injury whilst David Gower will come onto the bench in place of Daniel Alvaro. Without Moses, their most experienced spine member, there is a huge question over the leadership and experience in their side and one that will be interesting to watch come Friday evening. As a result we are leaning towards taking the Cowboys with the line start for this match. If the Cowboys are to play with the same intensity as last week and if Holmes is a late inclusion then they are every chance of covering a line that in their only loss in the last 5 games between the sides they were able to cover too.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys +7.5 $1.95
Gold Coast Titans ($2.60) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.50)
Saturday, 4th July 3:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
The first of two bottom eight clashes on Saturday sees the Gold Coast Titans take on the Cronulla Sharks at Suncorp Stadium with both teams looking to separate themselves from the battle for the wooden spoon. The race for the dreaded spoon looks to be between as many as 6 teams but with both the Titans and the Sharks coming off impressive wins they will be confident of securing another win this week and continuing their march up the table. These wins last week saw both teams upset teams who are considered to be their big brother in terms of not only location but also their recent performances. The Sharks managed to score just their 2nd win in 13 games against Manly with a convincing 40-22 win on the back of a strong performance in the middle and 2 try assists each to fullback Matt Moylan and five eight Shaun Johnson. For the Titans they defeated the Broncos 30-12 thanks to 14 points from five eight Ashley Taylor and an 81% completion rate in a much more controlled performance than recent weeks. As a result both sides have made minimal changes this week. The Sharks have only swapped Andrew Fifita and Braden Hamlin-Uele from bench to starting prop as they keep the same 17 players in their matchday squad. For the Titans Dale Copley drops out of the side with Tyrone Peachey starting in the centres and Bryce Cartwright joining the bench. In recent history the Sharks have dominated this contest by winning the last 3 match ups and will be confident in the fact their attack is averaging 8 points more than the Titans whilst their defence is conceding 5 points a game less than them. With this in mind and the fact that the Titans only wins have come up against bottom four teams then we are leaning towards a Sharks victory in this one, covering the line in the process, a feat they have done in their last 2 victories against the Titans.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks -5.5 $1.90
New Zealand Warriors ($2.55) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.52)
Saturday, 4th July 5:30pm, Central Coast Stadium
Two teams who have stolen the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week in the New Zealand Warriors & the Brisbane Broncos meet at Central Coast Stadium in what looks to be another battle that will largely affect the race to the wooden spoon. Last week saw both teams humiliated in performances that lacked both desire and direction as the Warriors slumped to their second straight loss whilst the Broncos lost their fifth in a row. For the Warriors the change of coach appeared to make no difference to their performance last week as the Storm put their edge defence to the sword in a 44 point loss that has called on interim coach Todd Payten to question their effort. On the other hand the Broncos looked lost and lacked leadership as they made 14 errors, missed 37 tackles and ran for over 500m less than the Titans in an 18 point loss. Despite this the only player dropped from the Broncos side for this week is Corey Oates who is replaced by Jamayne Isaako on the wing with Thomas Flegler joining the bench after serving his suspension and Pat Carrigan takes the starting spot of the suspended Joe Ofahengaue. On the other hand the Warriors have made a number of changes with David Fusitua returning on the wing moving Patrick Herbert to the centres & Gerard Beale to the reserves, Wayde Egan pushes Karl Lawton to the bench whilst Isaiah Papali’i is out of the side with newly loaned Panthers forward Jack Hetherington joining the bench. In recent history these two sides have been reasonably even with their last meeting ending in a draw and both teams sharing 3 wins a piece prior to that draw in what looks a hard game to read in terms of both teams form this year. One area that we are leaning towards is the total points market for this week's game. With both teams averaging 13 and 11 points per game in attack it is hard to see this being anything more than a low scoring, hard fought, sloppy game. Add to the fact that the last 3 games between these sides have been below this week's total points line then we’re happy to look at the unders for this one.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 43.5 Points $1.88
Wests Tigers ($2.60) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.50)
Saturday, 4th July 7:35pm, Bankwest Stadium
A battle of two of the Western Sydney teams sees the Wests Tigers take on the Penrith Panthers with both teams sitting on two game winning streaks. For the Tigers their two wins have come in convincing fashion against the Cowboys & the Bulldogs as they have put on 70 points whilst conceding only 26 points. This performance has largely been on the back of the attacking prowess of young hooker Harry Grant who has scored the maximum 6 Dally M votes across these two weeks and if the Panthers are to succeed this week then they will have to ensure their middle defence is on the lookout for him. Thankfully for the Panthers their two victories have been on the back of sturdy defence as they have held the Storm to 14 points and the Rabbitohs to 12 points whilst scoring 21 & 20 points respectively. During this period their middle forwards have completely dominated the ruck and NSW halfback Nathan Cleary has taken his decision making and kicking game to a new level. As a result this week sees only one change between the two sides. This change is the return of Josh Mansour from a knee injury as he takes the place of Brent Naden on the Panthers wing whilst the Tigers remain unchanged. Despite the Tigers having won their last match against the Panthers last year the Panthers hold the previous 5 wins against the men from Leichhardt. Add this to the fact that the Tigers are missing a couple of key forwards in Alex Twal and Zane Musgrove and we think they might be up against it with the Panthers holding wins over two teams much stronger than the Tigers last two wins and a much stronger forward pack. To add a little bit of extra value we are predicting the match to be a relatively close one and with the Panthers winning their last two by 8 points or less then we are happy to take them to win by 1-12 in this one.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.90
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.05) vs Newcastle Knights ($1.77)
Sunday, 5th July 4:05pm, Central Coast Stadium
Sunday's first game sees the 5th placed Newcastle Knights take on the 8th placed Manly Sea Eagles with both teams coming off disappointing losses to bottom 8 teams last week. Both teams put in largely uncharacteristic performances as the Sea Eagles let in 40 points in an 18 point loss to the Sharks whilst the Knights let in 32 points in a 12 point loss to the Cowboys. For the Sea Eagles their loss was highlighted by 40 missed tackles, 11 errors and a number of dropped balls or pushed passes at times when they needed to hold onto possession as they look to get used to being without NSW player Tom Trbojevic over the next few weeks. On the other hand the Knights were completely blown off the park as they were down 26-0 at half time, to a team who had lost 3 in a row in the Cowboys, as coach Adam O’Brien questioned their grit and concentration on the task after their strong start to the season. Thankfully for O’Brien he can welcome back strike centre Bradman Best from suspension who takes the place of Gehamat Shibasaki but will have to make do without Tim Glasby due to concussion as Herman Ese’ese takes his place at starting lock and Pasami Saulo comes onto the bench. For the Sea Eagles Moses Suli returns at centre in place of Brendan Elliot whilst Martin Taupau moves into the starting side in place of Sean Keppie. Last year the Sea Eagles managed to do the double against the Knights but it was only the previous year that the Knights were able to do the double to them in what looks to be a relatively even contest. The one area that is swaying us is the injuries towards two of Manly’s creative players in Trbojevic and Dylan Walker. With their spine missing two key members we feel that the Knights boast more of an attacking threat, as seen by their average of 24 points per game in comparison to the Sea Eagles 17 points per game, and we will lean towards them with the line in what should be an interesting game.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -1.5 $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($4.00) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.24)
Sunday, 5th July 6:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
The final game of the round sees a replay of the 2014 Grand Final and the traditional Easter long weekend clash between the Canterbury Bulldogs and the South Sydney Rabbitohs. Both teams will be desperate for a win after coming off losses last week in games that they both would have liked their chances in. For the Rabbitohs last week they were simply outclassed by a strong kicking game and outmuscled in the middle as they fell 20-12 in a game that was sitting at 8-6 with just over 20 minutes to go. This halted their two game winning streak and they will be hoping to bounce back by getting revenge on the Bulldogs after they beat them in round 22 of last year by 8 points. For the Bulldogs they slumped to their 3rd successive loss as they went down by 28 points to the Tigers thanks to 13 errors and they now sit alone on the bottom of the table with only one win all year. To make matters worse is the fact that the Bulldogs have now lost Will Hopoate and Jake Averillo to injury forcing Reimis Smith & Marcelo Montoya into the centres and Nick Meaney & Christian Crichton onto the wing as Kerrod Holland reverts to the bench. For the Rabbitohs their only
change is James Roberts coming into the starting side in the centres as Braidon Burns moves back to the bench. With Souths able to keep the core of their side together from last week and with the Bulldogs losing a couple of players then it is hard to see the Bulldogs getting anything out of this game. Add to the fact that the Bulldogs have struggled to shut down opposition fullbacks this season, think Tedesco & Doueihi’s performances against them in recent weeks, then we can see Latrell Mitchell potentially having a massive game after a quiet week last week. With that in mind we’re confident with the Rabbitohs running away with this one and we’ll take them with the line for this one.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -10.5 $1.90
