State of Origin Game Three
Wednesday, 10th July 8:10pm, ANZ Stadium
Game three is finally upon as both teams will be eager to write their own history with a dominant performance that will see the winner walk away with the State of Origin shield. Read on as we preview the important changes to both teams, the key match ups and the recent history between the two teams as well providing our predictions for the first try scorer and the best bet from the match.
2019 State Of Origin Game Three Line Ups
With the 2019 state of origin series locked at one game a piece after New South Wales thumped Queensland 38-6 in Perth the decider is set to be an enthralling match that looks like it could go either way. Both coaches have been forced into a number of changes as a result of injuries and form playing a part on the make up of both sides with New South Wales naming their third halves pairing whilst Queensland will also sport a new half combination for the first time this series. For New South Wales they have recalled maligned New South Wales halfback Mitchell Pearce for his first game since the 2017 series loss as he looks to win his first origin series after losing in his last 7 attempts. Pearce’s inclusion proves to be one of the most intriguing talking points for game three as NSW coach Brad Fittler is hoping that Pearce’s improved maturity since moving to Newcastle will help them win back to back origin series. The only other change that NSW have made has been the inclusion of David Klemmer who gets his chance to return from injury after Dragons forward Tariq Sims was suspended for his late shot on Michael Morgan in his last club game. On the other hand Queensland have made 4 changes as both injury and form has played its part in forcing Kevin Walters hand. The biggest change has been the loss of fullback Kalyn Ponga to injury as he is replaced at fullback by Cameron Munster with Corey Norman to come into five eight as he makes his origin debut in the toughest arena of all. Walters has also recalled Joe Ofehengaue to the starting pack as he looks to make his return from a knee injury that he suffered in state of origin game one. The other debutant for Queensland, Christian Welch of the Melbourne Storm, comes onto the bench in place of Jarrod Wallace as Walters looks to battle the NSW forwards who completed dominated the game in game two. Of further interest has been the reports that Moses Mbye has been seen training at centre, which would mean that Michael Morgan would either move into the five eight role and Corey Norman moves to the utility role or Morgan plays the utility role that he has previously played in a number of times. This move will be something to watch as kick off approaches and could shape the style that each side plays.
Key Match Ups
Mitchell Pearce vs Daly Cherry Evans
The return of Mitchell Pearce to the origin arena is one of the biggest stories in rugby league for 2019 as Brad Fittler looks to call on a man whose record currently sits at a disappointing 5 wins from 18 starts in state of origin. Standing in Pearce’s way will be his opposite number in Daly Cherry-Evans who will be largely disappointed in his performance in game two as he let the NSW halves control the pace and direction of the game as they ran away to a 38-6 victory. Cherry-Evans will be hoping that he can improve his kicking game drastically as it was too often that he dropped his kicks short and in doing so he relieved the pressure off New South Wales at critical times in the game. For Cherry Evans to do this he will need to take control of the game early on the back of a much improved effort from his forwards as well as hoping that Pearce can’t continue his impressive form at club level from 2019. Pearce’s club form and improved maturity is a massive reason for Fittler recalling Pearce as he has led Newcastle to an impressive 8 wins from 14 games as they sit 5th on the table. Much of this form is on the back of his deft short kicking game and his decision making that has him leading the league in line break assists with 13, 8 try assists and 5 tries so far. Whether Pearce is able to replicate this form at representative level is the question on many peoples lips and it will play a major part in which state walks away as holders of the state of origin shield.
Tom Trbojevic vs Michael Morgan
The inclusion of Tom Trbojevic to the NSW team for game two was a massive game changer in how the result went as he scored 3 tries, ran for 118 metres and made 1 line break in a mammoth performance for the Manly Sea Eagles fullback. Trbojevic’s opposite number, Michael Morgan, may not have been the direct cause of all of those tries but it was arguably his worst performance in a Queensland jersey and a performance where he has since been criticised for. For Morgan he was shown up as a make shift centre with a number of his defensive decisions that saw him make only 67% of his tackles and it will have caused multiple headaches for both him and Kevin Walters as they approach the game three decider. Fortunately for Morgan and Walters it isn’t too often that he has two bad games in a row and they will be confident that he can replicate his previous form in a bid to help Queensland stop Trbojevic’s influence. This job won’t just solely fall on Morgan, although, as it was two of Trbojevic’s tries that came through the middle of the ground as he was given a licence to roam and influence the game with his exceptional support play and dangerous carries. Whether or not Morgan and Queensland are able to stop this will again play a huge role in whether or not they able to bounce back from this dismal performance in game two.
Jake Trbojevic vs Josh McGuire
Game two saw an absolute domination from the NSW forwards as four of their forwards ran for over 100 metres whilst only one Queensland forward ran for over 100 metres in Felise Kaufusi whilst Dylan Napa, Matt Gillett, Jarrod Wallace and David Fifita didn’t even crack 50 metres. Behind this domination was the elder of the Trbojevic brothers, Jake, who ran for 162 metres and made 30 tackles in a shock pre-game switch to the front row as he played a whopping 73 minutes out of the possible 80 and earned man of the match honours. This performance played a massive role in the demolition job that was game two and Queensland will be hoping that arguably their most experienced forward in Josh McGuire can help to stem the constant flow of blue occurring again in game three. McGuire will be disappointed in his own effort in game two where he ran for only 93 metres and made 36 tackles as he was outmuscled by a young and dominate NSW pack. Thankfully for Queensland McGuire will be fresh and raring to go as he sat out of the Cowboys last club game due to a suspension from game two and the influence that he has on the game in the early stages, in particularly against Trbojevic, could define the course of the 2019 state of origin series.
Recent History
Pressure is mounting on both coaches as Queensland coach Kevin Walters will be fearing for his job with a second consecutive series loss whilst New South Wales coach Brad Fittler and his team have been earmarked as heavy favourites as they have been installed as $1.40 in the market and they will be widely criticised if they lose the game. NSW can be confident although in their domination in game two as they ran out 38-6 victors thanks to holding 59% of possession and completing at 83% in a game that was played at a fast pace. In recent history Queensland have dominated game three scenarios as they have won 4 of the last 5 but it is important to bare in mind that this was during a period where they won 8 out of a possible 10 origin series. History will also have to be rewritten as Queensland have only lost back to back origin games twice in the last 10 years, which was in both years that NSW won, but if there was ever a year for this to happen then you would think that the current NSW team is more than capable of doing that.
First Try Scorer
Tom Trbojevic absolutely flew over Kalyn Ponga for the first try in game two but it is hard to see this being replicated again as Queensland should be paying a lot more attention to him after his 3 try performance. As a result of this heightened attention towards Trbojevic we believe there is value in the NSW fullback James Tedesco, who has been travelling under the radar in his two performances in the state of origin series so far. Tedesco has dominated both games at fullback with his impressive support play, improved ball playing skills and his ability to make massive metres as he has ran for 463 metres across the two games. We believe that with this in mind and his ability to perform in big games that there is value in Tedesco to score the first try on Wednesday night.
Recommended Bet: James Tedesco $11
Best Bet
With the head-to-head market heavily leaning towards NSW we believe there is value in the margin market as it is hard to see a game three decider being a complete domination from either team. It is also interesting to note that 4 of the last 5 game three’s in Sydney have been decided by a score of 12 points or less so with this in mind we are leaning towards a NSW victory by 1-12 points.
Recommended Bet: NSW 1-12 $2.60
