Port Adelaide Power v Essendon Bombers
Friday, August 24 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Friday night footy kicks off with two team’s that will likely finish just outside the top 8. The Power have been terrible lately with 5 losses in their last 6. After sitting 2nd in Round 16, it’s been an incredible fall. The Bombers have finished off the season well but they will rue a poor start to 2018. In Round 4, the Bombers upset the Power with a 22 point win and they do have a good head to head record against them. However, I like the high scoring trend when these two meet. The total has reached 185 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings and has gone over 190+ in the last 2. With both sides needing a percentage-boosting win, they should open the flood gates here!
Stadium Record
The Power are 7-4 at the Adelaide Oval in 2018. Since 2010, the Bombers are 1-3 here.
Head to Head Record
Essendon beat the Power in Round 4 by 22 points.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats v Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, August 25 1:45pm, Kardinia Park
The “Gary Ablett Cup” will kick off Saturday’s AFL action in Geelong. The Cats absolutely smashed the Dockers last week by 133 points and I don’t see the Suns defence enjoying much luck as well. Gold Coast hold an 0-4 record here and have conceded an average of 146 points! The last clash here was back in 2016 as the Cats won 168-48. They also beat them by 85 points in Round 11 this season. So I can’t see the Suns keeping this under a 100 point margin. Tom Hawkins should kick a bag and the Cats midfield turns in another vintage performance.
Stadium Record
The Cats are 7-1 at home this season and 5-0 against bottom 8 sides. The Suns have never won in their 4 outings in Geelong.
Head to Head Record
Geelong are 7-2 against the Suns and hold an average winning margin of 70 points.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers v Western Bulldogs
Saturday, August 25 2:10pm, MCG
The Tigers have wrapped up the minor premiership and will look for their 21st straight victory at the MCG. But I think the Bulldogs have a decent chance of keeping this close. I doubt the Tigers will be risking any of their top players and that should keep this margin close. The Bulldogs have also beaten the Tigers in the last 4 meetings. They come into this clash with 3 straight wins as well. Their midfield is really finishing the season strongly with the likes of Dunkley, the Bont, Macrae and Hunter finding plenty of the footy. So take the Dogs at the line here.
Stadium Record
Richmond holds a 13-0 record at the ‘G this season. The Bulldogs have only played at the MCG once this season and lost by 50 points.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs have won the last 4 clashes since 2014.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers v Collingwood Magpies
Saturday, August 25 4:35pm, Optus Stadium
The Magpies head West and they’ll look to seal a top 4 spot with a win. They’re hitting the finals with good form after two comfortable wins over the Lions and Power. Brodie Grundy is dominating the ruck and his midfield is the beneficiary. Now they face the Dockers, who are coming off a 133 point defeat in Geelong. They do have a 7-5 record at Optus Stadium, however they’re yet to beat a top 8 side in 3 attempts. In contrast, the Magpies are 3-0 against bottom 8 sides when they travel interstate. They also beat the Dockers by 61 points in Round 11 and this should be a similar margin.
Stadium Record
This will be the first game at Optus Stadium for the Pies. Fremantle beat the Blues in their last game here in Round 21.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood hold a 3-0 record against them since 2016.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues v Adelaide Crows
Saturday, August 25 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
The Blues host the Crows at Etihad on Saturday night. Both sides are out of the finals and will be looking to build form for next season. Adelaide are finishing the season well but missing the top 8 has been a massive fail after reaching the GF last season. Meanwhile, the Blues have won just twice in season 2018 and as a result, they will collect the wooden spoon. They’ve lost all 7 games at Etihad this season and they average just 53 points scored. So I think the Crows midfield and forward line should have a field day. They beat the Blues by 55 points in Round 7 and won the last meeting at Etihad by 40+.
Stadium Record
Carlton hold a 0-7 record at Etihad in 2018, which is 0-5 against bottom 8 sides. Adelaide are 1-1 here this season.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 4-0 against the Blues with an average winning margin of 34 points.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans v Hawthorn Hawks
Saturday, August 25 7:25pm, SCG
A huge battle awaits at the SCG as the Swans play the Hawks. The winner of this clash will likely finish top 4 so the stakes couldn’t be higher between these two rivals. For the Swans, they’ve found form at the right time with 3 straight wins, manly thanks to Buddy Franklin. However, he’s in doubt for this clash. The Hawks are ridding a 5 game winning streak and have won their last 3 by under 12 points. That’s also the trend between these two sides. In the last 4 clashes, the margin has finished under 10 points. But I think with Buddy in doubt, this should turn into a low scoring affair. The Swans last 3 games have been low scoring and they don’t have a great scoring record at the SCG in 2018.
Stadium Record
The Hawks are 4-1 at the SCG since 2010. Sydney holds a 5-5 record here this season, which is 3-1 against fellow top 8 sides.
Head to Head Record
Sydney beat the Hawks in Round 8 at the MCG by 8 points when Ben Ronke kicked 7 goals!
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles
Sunday, August 26 1:10pm, Gabba
The Eagles head to the Gabba for a matchup against the Lions. While the Eagles lost to the Demons last week, they still sit 2nd on the ladder. So the motivation for a home final should be extremely high. Brisbane have been a tough side to play against at the Gabba this season with 8 of their losses via the 1-39 margin. So this should be another close margin with the Eagles just getting over the line. They’re 5-2 at the Gabba since 2010 and 6-3 interstate this season. The Lions only just beat the Suns last week so I just can’t see them beating a top 8 side.
Stadium Record
Brisbane holds a 2-8 record at the Gabba this season. But their average losing margin is just 14 points. West Coast has won the last 3 at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
The two sides haven’t met this season and the Eagles are looking for their 8th straight win over the Lions.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons v GWS Giants
Sunday, August 26 3:20pm, MCG
Sunday’s AFL action is highlighted by this clash between the Demons and Giants. Congrats to long suffering Melbourne fans as their side will finally play in September this season! They knocked off the Eagles in Perth last week in a great team performance. The Giants head to the MCG with a number of injury concerns but they’ll still be keen to finish in the top 4. Despite injuries, they still have good depth and Josh Kelly should return from concussion. So I like their chances of keeping this close. Melbourne hasn’t beaten a top 8 side at the MCG this season and I think they could be a bit flat after a trip West.
Stadium Record
The Dees are 4-6 at the MCG in 2018. GWS won their only game at the ‘G in Round 2 and have a 5-3-1 interstate record this season.
Head to Head Record
GWS won the last clash in Round 20 last season by around 5 goals.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Sunday, August 26 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium
The regular season ends at Etihad Stadium as the Saints host the Kangaroos. It’s been a woeful season for St Kilda but they showed good signs last week in a 4 point loss to the Hawks. With an 11-10 record, the Kangaroos would be happy with this season but 2 straight losses has ended their top 8 hopes. So with both sides out of contention for the finals, this should turn into a high scoring affair. Last season, they met at this venue in similar fashion (at the end of the season) and the total went over 200 points.
Stadium Record
St Kilda have returned a 2-9-1 record at Etihad in season 2018. The Roos are 5-5 but have an average losing margin of 14 points.
Head to Head Record
The Roos crushed the Saints in Round 2 by 52 points.
Best Bet
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