2018 NRL Preview
Round 19
Another round of surprises kept us on our toes last week, as some big name teams dropped games we assumed they’d win, while others fought to stay alive longer than most expected. The Rabbitohs still sit alone at the top of the ladder, 2 points clear of second place, after convincingly running over the ragged Bulldogs. Sam Burgess believes this team is playing better football than their 2014 premiership winning counterparts, and after notching their 9th win in a row, it is difficult to argue. They are now in the box seat to claim a top two spot, while the jostle for the positions below them is heating up. The Dragons have dropped to 3rd, though they are on equal points with the Storm in 2nd, and fans will be having flashbacks to previous late season fade outs all over again. The key for the Dragons, who were show up by the Tigers’ veterans, is to return to their dynamite forward pack playing fast and hard through the middle, which will give their playmakers the time they just don’t have at the moment.
The Roosters are going about their business relatively quietly at the moment, but will need to keep improving if they want to stay in the top 4. The big movers in the top 8 this week were the Sharks and the Warriors, both of whom were very impressive in wins over the Panthers and Broncos respectively. The Sharks in particular are warming to the task, and are heavy with experience in this time of year. The Warriors were great on Sunday, but it needs to be said that the Broncos produced one of their most insipid performances of the year. Granted, they were without some key players, but they were completely outplayed by the Kiwis in every facet of the game, and will now be looking over their shoulders at a couple of teams with some nervousness.
Those teams, of course, are the Raiders and the Tigers, who both notched good wins. Jarod Croker will be a huge loss for the Raiders, but he fact they now only sit 2 wins behind the Broncos, who have an especially tough run over the next few weeks, should have their eyes on the prize. They look the most likely of the two teams still in with a fight, but we know the distance between Canberra’s best and their worst football in huge, so the challenge for Ricky Stuart will be to minimise the brain snaps and find some consistency.
Round 18 also saw the impact of two individuals on their team’s fortunes very clearly. Cameron Smith has steered the Storm to a perfect 6-0 record during the Origin period, and positioned them nicely for the run home. He was the difference again in their win over Manly. Up in Newcastle, it was the return of Mitchell Pearce that sparked the Knights back to form, and we can only wonder what their season might have looked like if he had stayed fit.
The Big Games
Some really important games coming up this weekend in terms of finals positions. Two of those take place on Friday night, with the Sharks hosting the Raiders and the Panthers traveling to Brisbane. The Sharks are really hitting their straps at the moment, and one of their best over the past few weeks has been Matt Moylan. He was outstanding in their win over his old team the Panthers last week, and is finally adjusting to life in the number 6 after a frustrating start in the Shire. He still shapes as the potential long term NSW 5/8 if he can maintain this form. The Sharks also have one of the most experienced and battle hardened packs in the competition, and it will be interesting to see them up against the big Raiders pack. Any dropped games from Canberra could spell the end of their season, so the tightrope walking could take its toll at some stage in the next few weeks.
Up in Brisbane, the Broncos will be desperate to forget all about their horrible display against the Warriors, while the Panthers themselves will be looking to regain their mojo after slipping up last weekend. The return of James Maloney, Nathan Cleary and Tyrone Peachey will be huge for Penrith, as will the comeback from Josh Mansour, while the Broncos welcome back Tevita Pangai Jnr and Joe Ofahengaue. Brisbane go into this one as favourites, although they are easing, so perhaps punters can’t believe that a Wayne Bennett coached side could be that disappointing two weeks in a row. The question for Brisbane will always come back to their halves, and whether they are able to close out the big games down the stretch. Expect the Penrith pack to try to bully the young Broncos around, and if that’s the case their backs could do some serious damage on the scoreboard.
The other really interesting match up for the weekend is the Dragons travelling to meet the Cowboys. This is simply a must win match for the Red V, who desperately need to steady the ship, or risk sliding further down the ladder. The Cowboys can’t seem to conjure any improvement, so should be easy fodder for the Saints, but if history is anything to go by, fans won’t be banking the two points until this one has been wrapped up. The North Queenslanders still have a great pack, and this is where the Dragons really need to stand up. The likes of Vaughan, Sims, Frizell, Graham and de Belin really need to take the bull by the horns here, to allow their halves and backs some space. Expect more structured attack from the Saints, and they should be able to grind out a good win.
Predictions
The Eels meet the Bulldogs on Friday night, and we’ll back the Eels to convert potential into performance in this one, despite being let down over and over again this year. The Sharks will put a dent in the Raiders’ hopes by grabbing another win, but Penrith will do Canberra a favour by beating Brisbane. The Knights will continue their late season improvement by getting over the Titans, and the Rabbits will be too good for the Tigers. The Dragons should be able to bounce back to form with a win over the Cowboys, while the Storm will win a tight one in new Zealand. Finally, Manly will grab an upset win over the Roosters on Sunday afternoon.
Best Bet
Some tricky markets to navigate this week, with some real knife edge odds. After their close loss to the Storm last week, Manly look over the odds to beat a Roosters team that are still not quite at top gear. The Sea Eagles in a close one, by 1-12, at $3.85 is our best bet of the week.
For the latest NRL odds, click here.
