Super Rugby Week Round 17
The Form Guide
After an exhilarating June Test window, it feels like we need to catch our breath a little, but there is no chance for that with Super Rugby kicking back in to action on Friday night. With three rounds left to play, it is all on the line for teams battling for finals positions, while others will be looking to lay a foundation that can be built on in 2019. The last time these teams took the field was way back at the start of June, so establishing any kind of form line for this weekend will be difficult. What we did see, though, was a lot of points scored, particularly by the Australian teams. The Waratahs won a basketball match against the Reds, 52-41, while the Brumbies put on 41 points of their own to beat the Sunwolves. In a lower scoring match, the Rebels claimed another Australian victory over a Kiwi team, and the first on New Zealand soil for a long time, by beating the Blues in Auckland. All told it was one of the more successful weekends for Australian teams, perhaps paving the way for the improved Wallaby performances we saw against the Irish. Elsewhere, the Crusaders continued to dominate all comers by taking care of compatriots the Chiefs, while the Highlanders got an important win over the Hurricanes to keep their finals hopes alive.
Outside of the Crusaders’ stranglehold on the New Zealand conference, finals spots are still very much up for grabs. In particular, it will be a ding dong battle between the Waratahs and the Rebels to claim top spot in the Aussie conference. The Rebels, and the coach Dave Wessels, have done an almighty job in difficult circumstances this year to be in contention as they are. The addition of the bulk of the Western Force players to the squad was no guarantee that they would gel as quickly as they have, and though they face a tough test from here to go on with it, they would be very happy that they are still in the fight.
The Big Games
It doesn’t get any bigger than the two teams just mentioned meeting on Friday night. The Waratahs travel to Melbourne to meet the Rebels, in match worth double points in their race for the conference lead. The Waratahs currently hold top spot by a solitary point, and the Rebels will know this is their best opportunity to make a run for the finals. Unfortunately for fans, it looks likely that both the best back and best forward for each team will be missing from the showdown. For the Rebels, Adam Coleman and Will Genia have both suffered injuries against Ireland that will have them out for very lengths, while the Waratahs have also lost skipper Michael Hooper to injury. Pending the outcome of an appeal process, it appears Israel Folau will be grounded for 1 week as well, with his suspension for an innocuous leap in the third test still sitting very uneasily with Australian fans. These losses undoubtedly remove some of the shine from the contest, but none of the tension, with so much on the line. The Waratahs have an intimidating record against the Rebels, winning their last 2 clashes and racking up over 50 points in each, while winning 12 of 14 matches overall. This will count for little on Friday though, and you can expect a very tight contest despite the Tahs being well backed favourites.
Before that clash, the Reds will be over in Auckland to meet the lowly Blues, who haven’t won a match at Eden Park all year. Farewelling Blues and All Blacks hero Jerome Kaino, though, will be ample motivation for them to break their run of outs against the equally struggling Reds. Both teams will have significant outs from the test matches as well, with Sonny Bill Williams missing for the Blues and Izack Rodda out for the Reds. The record for this clash is perfectly even- 10 wins, 10 losses and 2 draws for each team. The odds say that this one will go to the Blues though, with the Reds unloved at $4.10. They are both playing for pride, but the home ground advantage should be enough of a factor to get the Blues home.
The other big game to watch out for is coming to us from Fiji, where the Highlanders have taken their home match against the Chiefs. These teams last met in March, where the Chiefs proved too strong in Hamilton. The Highlanders have won their last couple in a row though, and will be looking to inflict some more pain on the Chiefs, who were last start losers to the Crusaders. The battle of the flyhalves will be crucial, with Damien McKenzie winning the role of back up to Beauden Barrett for the All Blacks, while Lima Sopoaga missed the 23 altogether. Sopoaga will definitely have a point to prove against his rival, while the Highlanders’ Ben Smith will also be looking to make a case to retain the number 15 jersey when the Kiwis are back together. There should be some points in this one.
Predictions
The Blues won’t miss the opportunity to send Jerome Kaino off a winner, so expect them to be too strong for a gallant Reds team missing some firepower. The Rebels have it all on the line against the Waratahs, and that might be enough for them to spring an upset over the undermanned Tahs. The Highlanders will bank another win on the trot by beating the Chiefs, while the Hurricanes will overpower the Brumbies. The Bulls should be good enough to beat the Sunwolves in Singapore, and the Lions will get the points over the Sharks. Lastly, the much improved Jaguares will stay in the finals race with a win over the Stormers.
Best Bet
A Waratahs team starting short favourites without Hooper and Folau seems a risk, so take the $2.25 on offer for a Rebels upset as our best bet of the week. Bet here.
For the latest Super Rugby odds, click here.
Words: Cameron Stokes
