UFC 324 delivers a stacked card headlined by Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje for interim lightweight gold, with multiple high-stakes matchups and betting opportunities across the board.
Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje
The main event of this card will see the #5 ranked lightweight take on the #4 ranked for the interim lightweight title.
Despite many critics being vocal about Paddy The Baddy throughout his UFC run, he’s now 6-0 in the organisation. Paddy is a through-and-through mixed martial artist, often dictating where the fight takes place. His strength of schedule can certainly be questioned, but a win here against a perennial top five contender and former interim title holder would be well regarded.
Justin Gaethje is recognised as one of the most violent men in the UFC. Often disregarding his own safety, Gaethje throws himself into the fire. He’s an explosive fighter, primarily a striker, throwing everything with ill intention. He enters this matchup at the back end of his career, announcing his last push for undisputed UFC gold.
The queries over Pimblett’s strength of schedule are fair as he takes on his toughest challenge yet, but Gaethje has his own worries regarding durability after all the wars he’s been in at 37 years of age. I think it’s fair to say Gaethje should get the better of the two on the feet, although it may not be as action-packed as we’re used to. Expecting Paddy to sit at range, poking away with his kicks, waiting for an opportunity to drag Gaethje to the canvas.
The jiu-jitsu difference here is vast and has been a proven pathway to beat Justin. Instead of playing Paddy at $1.45, I’m more inclined to bet submission as I think it holds a lot of his win equity.
Paddy Pimblett to win by finish ($1.72), Paddy Pimblett Submission ($2.30)
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong
It’s easy to envision O’Malley using his length and elite striking to skirt around the outside, cruising to a decision win. His mental state heading into this matchup does need to be questioned, having suffered back-to-back losses and already dropping the R (retirement) word. Song Yadong is a proven tough out for most. Let’s not forget he was a pick ’em with Yan and that fight went to a split decision.
O’Malley’s resume can be nitpicked with two losses to Merab. As far as I’m concerned, he was gifted a robbery against Yan and gifted a free title defence against Vera. Can’t take anything away from his Aljo win, however.
I’m thinking how wrong can you be playing Song Yadong here. He’s extremely powerful and durable. If he gets his wrestling going, which we’ve seen him utilise more recently, this can be a very close fight.
Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva
This is a high-level matchup between top 10 ranked fighters. The winner will throw themselves back into title contention with a comprehensive victory here.
Jean Silva comes into this fight after suffering his first UFC loss in a two-round war to Diego Lopes. Despite getting knocked out, Silva showed some impressive skills and resilience, having survived round one. A dry Diego Lopes in mount two minutes into the fight is a worst-case scenario, but it gives me confidence that Silva can at the very least survive on the mat against elite players. As for his striking, it’s very cerebral and very damaging. He is elite in that department.
Arnold Allen is back, having not fought in 2025. A fan favourite in his own right, he’s extremely well rounded. Generally, he likes to bang it out on the feet, utilising footwork effectively. His wrestling and jiu-jitsu is solid to say the least but is strictly used defensively.
I'm taking a strong liking to Jean Silva in this matchup as the fight should play out on the feet. To get the better of Jean in a striking affair you must possess elite durability and power. Considering he’s coming off a KO loss, is the shorter fighter, and factoring in Allen’s constant movement, I think Jean will build into the fight. It’s proven to be a death wish trying to strike with Silva. Of his 16 wins, 12 have come by KO. I’m predicting him to hand Allen his first KO loss. I don’t think Allen can survive 15 minutes considering he has displayed a suspect chin at times.
Jean Silva ($1.37), Jean Silva KO ($2.45), Jean Silva KO Rnd 2 ($6.00)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo
There is not too much to say about this matchup. These fighters are at completely different stages in their respective careers. Umar is perceivably entering his prime, pushing for another title shot, whereas Deiveson is at the back end of his career, close to retirement.
Stylistically, Umar matches up well as reflected in his price tag ($1.06). This seems a solid spot to play the underdog wins by finish when you consider Figgy is aging and Umar will have a size advantage.
Umar to win by finish, Umar Submission
Main Card Predictions
Paddy Pimblett
Song Yadong
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Natalia Silva
Jean Silva
Multi: $8.31
