A big slate of third-round matches as the draw starts to take shape, with plenty of value on offer in the men’s bracket.
LEG 1 - Tommy Paul
The American was out of sorts last year, but has returned in 2026 after an extended injury break following the US Open and looks back to his best.
He’s yet to drop a set in this tournament and has completely owned Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina throughout his career. With a 4-0 head-to-head record, Paul smashed ADF the last time they met at last year’s Australian Open, winning 6-1 6-1 6-1.
With ADF pushed to five sets by Opelka last round, Paul looks primed to dominate again.
LEG 2 - Learner Tien
The 20-year-old American has shown enough in this tournament to suggest he should be too good for Nuno Borges.
Borges’ path here raises some concerns. He beat an unwell Auger-Aliassime in round one and then needed four sets to get past Jordan Thompson, who is still working his way back after an injury-hit season.
Tien’s hard-court metrics over the past 12 months are clearly stronger, so backing the Next Gen Finals champion makes sense.
LEG 3 - Alexander Zverev
Zverev can drift in and out of matches early in majors, but Cam Norrie shapes as no real threat here.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 6-1, with Norrie’s only win coming back in 2013 when both players were ranked outside the top 800. Aside from their five-set battle at last year’s Australian Open, Zverev hasn’t dropped a set in the other five meetings.
LEG 4 - Andrey Rublev
Rublev trails Francisco Cerundolo 3-1 head-to-head, but three of those matches were on clay where the Argentine holds a clear advantage.
Their most recent meeting at the 2024 Paris Masters went Cerundolo’s way in two tiebreaks, but that came during a rough stretch for Rublev while Cerundolo was in strong form.
Since late July, Cerundolo is just 9-9 on hard courts and 2-7 against top-50 opposition. With Rublev starting 2025 well on hard courts, the Russian looks set to turn the tables.
Multi = $4.61
