Two short-priced favourites feature in the men’s quarter-finals, while there’s every chance we see both underdogs prevail on the women’s side on Day 11.
LEG 1 – Jannik Sinner First Set
The handicap and total games markets appear perfectly set for this matchup, with plenty of hard-court history between Sinner and Shelton where the outcomes have landed freakishly close to the lines each time they meet.
I considered straight sets, but had some concerns around Sinner’s wellbeing and the improvement in Shelton’s game, so landed on Sinner to win the first set as a safer multi kicker.
Sinner has won his last 19 sets against Shelton and it’s hard to see a clear pathway for the American to consistently trouble the Italian’s serve.
LEG 2 – Jessica Pegula To Win A Set
Pegula has been the form player of the tournament so far, emphasised by her straight-sets demolition of Madison Keys.
Although pre-tournament I thought Anisimova was the one to beat, she hasn’t been at an outstanding level, making a number of errors against Wang in the fourth round, while the scoreline against Siniakova in round two was flattering.
Pegula holds a 3-0 career record over Anisimova, although in their two most recent meetings in 2024 Anisimova was ranked outside the top 100. Pegula has won a set in six of her last seven hard-court matches against top-10 opposition, and the way she’s playing suggests she can do so again here.
LEG 3 – Iga Swiatek To Win A Set
I was slightly surprised to see Swiatek priced as the underdog in this quarter-final against Rybakina.
Rybakina did win the WTA Finals late last year, but there are concerns around her consistency in the two-week Grand Slam format, with this being her first quarter-final appearance since Wimbledon 2024.
Swiatek has won four of her last five matches against Rybakina and has taken at least one set in each of their last eight meetings.
LEG 4 – Novak Djokovic -1.5 Set Handicap
Musetti has spent nearly double the time on court compared to Djokovic at this Australian Open, while the Serbian’s fourth-round walkover came at the perfect time for the 38-year-old.
Djokovic holds a dominant 9-1 career record over Musetti, including 4-0 on hard courts. Their most recent meeting came in the Athens Final late last year, with Djokovic winning in straight sets. They also met in Miami earlier in 2025, where Djokovic won 6-2, 6-2.
In completed Grand Slam matches against top-10 opponents not named Sinner or Alcaraz, Djokovic has won his last eight in four sets or fewer. Well rested and battle-hardened, he should be too strong again here.
Multi = $3.45
