Day one of the Australian Open brings some fascinating first-round matchups involving several seeded players, with genuine upset potential — including one top-ten men’s seed under serious pressure.
LEG 1 - Michael Zheng Over 0.5 Sets Won
We get an all-American showdown in round one, with little-known 21-year-old Michael Zheng taking on Sebastian Korda.
Zheng spent most of last season grinding on the Challenger circuit, but over the past 52 weeks he’s compiled an impressive 33–8 record on hard courts, highlighting a player clearly on the rise.
On the other side, it’s hard to fully trust Korda’s durability and mindset in majors. He recently lost to Kokkinakis in Adelaide — who wasn’t even fit enough to compete at the Australian Open — and has dropped at least one set in six of his last seven Grand Slam matches.
LEG 2 - Alexander Bublik vs Jensen Brooksby Over 3.5 Sets
Alexander Bublik enjoyed a breakout 2025 campaign, cracking the top ten just last week, but this is a nightmare first-round draw.
Jensen Brooksby remains one of the most unconventional players on tour and already owns a straight-sets win over Bublik from their 2022 Canada Masters clash.
Expect Brooksby’s awkward style to frustrate Bublik again, with this one shaping as a four-set minimum battle.
LEG 3 - Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie Over 3.5 Sets
Cameron Norrie looks far too short in this opening-round matchup against Benjamin Bonzi.
While Bonzi’s recent form has been poor, he’s proven he can lift at big events. He reached the third round of the US Open after knocking out Medvedev in round one, and also made the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati Masters.
Norrie hasn’t exactly impressed during the lead-in events either, making it hard to see this being wrapped up in straight sets.
VALUE BET
Romanian Elena-Gabriela Ruse has carved out a solid career as a tour battler, spending much of the past few seasons ranked between 50 and 100.
What really stands out here is her dominant head-to-head record against 26th seed Dayana Yastremska.
Ruse has beaten the Ukrainian in all three of their previous meetings, including twice as the lower-ranked player — most recently in US Open qualifying in 2023. Yastremska has also won just four of her past 12 matches, making this a very attractive matchup for Ruse.
