Wallabies v Ireland, 2nd Test Betting Preview
What a cracking start that was to the June internationals. The Kiwis put on a show in the second half against the French, the South Africans mounted an incredible comeback to beat the English in a cliffhanger, and the Wallabies produced their most inspired performance in a number of seasons to win a classic match against the Irish. This weekend, the Irish get their chance for revenge in Melbourne, where the Wallabies will be waiting, hoping to wrap up the series with a game to spare.
The 18-9 victory for the Wallabies last week was just the tonic the game needed after another rough start to Super Rugby for the Australian teams. The defensive intensity the men in gold produced set the standard early, and they maintained the physicality for the entire 80 minutes. The Irish were good without being at their best, most likely a result of the slightly experimental line-up Joe Schmidt picked for the match. To give the Wallabies their due credit, though, they never really let the Irish settle into any kind of rhythm. The entire tight five was outstanding, both with their dominant defence and work with ball in hand. The turnover scrum win on the Irish line was just reward for a brilliant effort.
The backline was as slick as it has looked for a long time, helped mostly by the incising runs of Kurtley Beale from the back field. Bernard Foley needs a second play maker beside him, and Beale was dangerous every time he touched the ball. The kicking game left a little to be desired, and expect both Beale and Dane Haylett-Petty to contribute to an improved performance this week. The highlight, though, was undoubtedly the return to test rugby of David Pocock, who was far and away best on ground. Somehow he has come back an even more potent force than when he left. He will be a key player for the rest of this series.
This week, the two teams have taken drastically different approaches. For the first time in his tenure, Michael Cheika has named an identical 23 two weeks in a row, while Schmidt has made 8 changes to his beaten starting XV. As expected, the mercurial Johnny Sexton returns at flyhalf, and this alone should transform the Irish performance. He will look to control the game from the outset, and take points whenever they are on offer. Dan Leavy comes in at openside flanker in a bid to nullify the influence of Pocock and Michael Hooper, while an entirely new front row will be hoping to counter the Wallabies' scrum strength. The hope is that these changes will return them to the outstanding form they showed in taking out the 6 Nations, which would make them very difficult to beat for the Aussies.
Cheika's unchanged line up is a huge vote of confidence for the men who got the job done on limited preparation last week. This is particularly true for Izack Rodda, who maintains his spot despite the availability of Rory Arnold. Cheika favourite Ned Hannigan was also available for selection, but Caleb Timu and Pete Samu get another chance to impress. Both will be better for the run last week, with Timu in particular looking to make a greater impact with ball in hand.
The Irish will undoubtedly produce a better performance than last week, so given the closeness of the match the Wallabies will be needing to improve to wrap the series up. A couple of key areas stand out to work on, most notably the wobbly line out and wayward kicking. Brandon Paenga-Amosa did not have a happy night in terms of his throwing, but he is usually pretty reliable, so expect him to be more accurate this week. The Irish will be targeting Pocock at the breakdown, so the pressure will be on the rest of the Australian pack to pick up the slack. Hooper in particular needs to get down and dirty in the ruck.
Out wide, Sami Kerevi is another who will be looking for more opportunities with ball in hand. He often found himself on the wing last week, and the Wallabies will want him more involved crashing balls up to make the most of his obvious strength. Expect Beale to be given far less space and time in attack by the Irish defence, but this may in turn create more opportunities for Israel Folau to find space one pass wider. It would be rare for him to go two tests in a row without a try, so Izzy may be worth an investment this weekend.
Best Bet
This should be another classic test match, fought hard but with some flair. It will be tight, and given their status as number two in the world, it would not surprise at all to see the Irish bounce back and level the series. If this Australian team is to be taken seriously, though, they need to show that they can produce quality performances back to back. Any drop in intensity will be punished by Ireland, so expect the Wallabies to take their physicality up a notch, with a little more polish with the extra preparation. The Wallabies in a tight one, 1-12, could be your best bet
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Words: Cameron Stokes
