Spring Tour
Wales v Australia
4:20am Sunday 11 November 2018
Principality Stadium - Cardiff
The European leg of the Wallabies’ Spring Tour kicks off this weekend with a clash with the Welsh in Cardiff, and the result could be significant for a number of reasons. The Australians have an intimidating recent record over Wales, unbeaten in their last 13 starts, but the majority of those have been closely fought affairs without much between the teams. Importantly, the two sides will meet again in pool play at the World Cup next year, so a confidence boosting victory this weekend would be valuable for both.
The Welsh ground out a strong victory over an understrength Scotland last weekend, and there were a couple of positive signs for Warren Gatland to build on. His loose forwards were powerful, and the backline showed glimpses of their dangerous best through tries to George North and Jonathan Davies. Leigh Halfpenny was strong at the back, and his boot was dependable. This is a Welsh team that is building nicely towards the World Cup after a couple of underwhelming seasons.
The Wallabies are coming towards the end of a torrid 2018, and any positives they can take from these final three matches would be more than welcome. Their last start loss to the All Blacks in Japan was depressingly predictable, with some encouraging early signs giving way to the usual errors and inevitable tsunami of Kiwi tries at the back end of the game. Most encouraging was the impact from the bench from returning stars Samu Kerevi and Jack Dempsey. Both were able to make incisive runs late in the game, a characteristic missing from so many Wallaby performances in recent memory. With positions at outside centre and blindside flanker still very much up in the air, both have a real opportunity to use this tour to press their claims for next year. On the topic of outside centres, the two most talked about selections of the Spring Tour squad are clearly 34 year old Adam Ashley-Cooper and 18 year old Jordan Petaia. Ashley-Cooper is keen to make a run for the World Cup, and Cheika will be keen to see how his speed and fitness have held up while playing abroad. For all of his perceived faults, most notably his unwillingness, or inability, to pass to his outside men, Ashley-Cooper is a genuine tryscorer, and the Wallabies have been woefully short of those in recent times. One would hope that Australian rugby wouldn’t be in the predicament of having to recall a 34 year old, but after this season all bets are off.
Petaia, on the other hand, represents all that is good about the next generation of Australian rugby. Big, fast and skilful, he dominated the NRC for QLD Country after an excellent debut season for the Reds. After playing most of the Super Rugby season on the wing, the move in to 13 has seen him really hit his straps, and though we won’t see him this weekend, it is quite possible he could be thrown a gold jumper as soon as next weekend against the Italians. With another 12 months under his belt, he could be a key weapon for the Wallabies at the World Cup.
Cheika has wasted no time rushing both Kerevi and Dempsey back into the starting team this weekend. In the forwards, this means Ned Hannigan returns to the bench, while Tolu Latu has also been handed just his second start despite his ill discipline against the All Blacks. Elsewhere, the pack looks as expected, with Adam Coleman returning to the starting team over Rob Simmons. The Hooper-Pocock backrow combination continues, as it will do right through to the World Cup, despite many fans' misgivings. If Dempsey can provide the grunt and mobility that other recent blindside flankers have struggled with, then we might see a way forward with this formation.
Kerevi's return at 13 sees Israel Folau shift back out to the wing, but surpsingly it is Cheika favourite Marika Koriobete who drops out of the 23, with Sefa Naivalu being given a deserved second chance after his try scoring performance against New Zealand. Genia, Foley, Beale and Hayley-Petty all hold their spots, but each still has something to prove. The midfield defence will be all important, with the Welsh posing several attacking threats out wide. Beale and Kerevi have had their issues in defence in the past, so expect Wales to throw plenty of traffic their way.
The set piece shapes as a crucial battle ground this weekend. The Wallabies’ scrum is solid, but has not been its dominant self since Mario Ledesma left the coaching ranks. The lineout has been near disastrous this year, with far too many attacking opportunities squandered with inaccurate throws or shoddy timing. Alun Wyn-Jones will be marshalling his troops at every set piece, well aware they are an opportunity to disrupt the Australians’ service. News this week that the Wallabies’ hookers plan to take more ownership of the team’s lineout woes is encouraging, but worryingly belated. Latu must improve his accuracy, and but the decision makers need to get the calls right too. Another rough night in this department will make like extremely tough for the Aussies.
Much will rest on the shoulders of Kerevi, as the Wallabies have lacked any backline punch in recent times. His hard, straight running should be a target for Foley and Beale, and if he can get over the advantage line consistently, the Wallabies can play off the back of front foot ball as well as anyone. Expect to see both wingers sitting on Kerevi's shoulder at some stage as he pokes through looking for an offload. Will Genia looked tired in his last outing, so if he doesn't show some spark this weekend there will be pressure to give Nick Phipps and Joe Gordon some more significant game time in the coming matches.
Neither team look set to run away with this one, so much will depend on the bouts if Halfpenny and Foley. While Halfpenny is near robotic in his accuracy, Foley can be rocks or diamonds, and the Wallabies can't afford rocks this weekend. Hooper needs to take the points when they are on offer, and build scoreboard pressure at every opportunity.
The Betting
Wales start slight favourites in this one, paying $1.82 to the Aussies' $2.00. The Welsh will take confidence from their defeat of Scotland last weekend, but the Scots were severely undermanned and didn't ask the Welsh a lot of questions. Given the Wallabies excellent recent record here, the Australians head to head is our best bet of the week.
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