Super Rugby Round 3 Betting Tips & Preview
The Form Guide
Last weekend gave us our first glimpse at a number of teams for this year. The Crusaders did no harm to their status as title favourites, powering over a Chiefs team that is still adjusting to having Damien McKenzie run things from flyhalf. There is always a risk moving your most dynamic attacker to a position where they are a little more shackled, but if he can find a balance in his game between playmaking and running, he could develop into a world class number 10. The Blues will take some positives from running so close against the Highlanders, and the fact these were supposedly the two weakest teams in the NZ conference should have the other conferences worried. This was a fantastic display of rugby from both teams, a great advertisement for the game. If only that level of skill could be reached on this side of the Tasman. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, will be bitterly disappointed to have gone down to the Bulls. The full time return of Beauden Barrett cannot come quickly enough for the Wellington team.
The Waratahs and the Brumbies, both fancied favourites in their opening games, got away with tight wins that they would have hoped had come a little easier. The Waratahs left it until after fulltime to find the winning try against the Stormers, and we will certainly look back on that victory as an important one when the whips are cracking at the end of the year. The Brumbies fell behind the much maligned Sunwolves in Japan, but pulled it together to get home in an important road win. Most encouraging was the return of Christian Lealiifano, who among other things laid on a try with a great stutter step and pass. The Wallabies need him to genuinely challenge Bernard Foley for the Australian number 10 this year. Depth at flyhalf is a worry for Michael Cheika, so he will be watching the Brumbies’ playmaker very closely as the year goes on. The Sunwolves, on the other hand, deserve credit for an impressive early showing. Hopefully they can build on that throughout the year.
The Rebels ran up a cricket score against an undermanned Reds, and it’s difficult to know exactly what to take from this game. The Rebels stuttered early, but had the legs to overrun an exhausted Queensland team, who hung on as long as they could. Will Genia’s return to Super Rugby was simply outstanding, proving he is still far and away the best scrum half in Australia. Scott Higginbotham will be furious at letting his team down, and rather than think he was hard done by, he needs to fix his technique quickly to ensure he doesn’t leave his team short again. Jono Lance did not have a happy debut, and we will be sure to see Hamish Stewart get some game time against the ACT this week.
The Big Games
Last round losers the Blues and Chiefs meet on Friday night to open the round, and both will be keen to get on the board with a win. The quality that both teams produced last weekend makes this a mouth-watering contest. The Blues ($1.68) are starting slight favourites, most likely due to the home ground advantage, but expect the Chiefs ($2.20) to be smarting after being right in the contest against the Crusaders for 60 minutes. This is the game of the round.
The Reds ($2.78) host the Brumbies ($1.45) at Suncorp Stadium, and another big loss for the Queenslanders will have all eyes trained on Brad Thorn very quickly. They simply must show some cohesion in attack and effectiveness in defence to quell the murmuring from fans. It could turn into a roar very quickly. Scott Higginbotham will be watching from the sidelines for the next three weeks, a bitter pill to swallow for a man determined to make a mark as captain. The Brumbies took some time to crank into gear last week, but expect a strong showing in Brisbane.
The Stormers ($7.10) have the unenviable task of backing up after a loss in Sydney to meet the Crusaders ($1.10) in Christchurch, and this one could get ugly if the South Africans show any sign of fatigue from their road trip. The Waratahs ($2.85) are heading the other direction to face the Sharks ($1.43) in Durban, and they will know how important wins in Africa are for your season. They should be better for the run last week.
After knocking off the Reds last week, the Rebels ($1.34) head to Japan knowing that a two from two start is within their reach if they don’t switch off against the Sunwolves ($3.29). They will have watched the Brumbies get run very close last week, and Dave Wessells will be focussed on making sure they turn up with their minds on the job. It’s a huge opportunity they won’t want to let slip.
Predictions
There are some heavy favourites this weekend, and it’s hard to argue with most. Expect the Brumbies, Crusaders, Lions and Hurricanes to notch up wins, with the Hurricanes under the most pressure after their first round stutter. The Rebels should be able to account for the much improved Sunwolves, but this will be cake walk. The Waratahs will try hard, but won’t quite have the polish to beat the Sharks at home, while the Chiefs will buck the home ground advantage and get home in a tight one over the Blues.
Best Bet
They were so good against the champions until an untimely yellow card and penalty try, so the Chiefs offer great value as outsiders in Auckland. The Chiefs half time-full time double at $2.60 is the best bet of the week.
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