Super Rugby Finals Week 1 Preview
The Wash Up
The Super Rugby regular season came to a close last weekend, and it was a case of missed opportunities for a number of teams as the finalists found their spots in the quarterfinals. There will be disappointment in Australia, with only the Waratahs progressing to this weekend, and the Brumbies and Rebels in particular will be ruing some chances that they didn’t take this year. Brumbies coach Dan McKellar would be pleased with his team’s finish to the season, winning their last four on the trot and showing some really positive signs for next season. They were clearly the better team against the lacklustre Waratahs, a result which would be both frustrating and hopeful and fans in the ACT. The Rebels ran the Highlanders close, and would also be looking back at some games that got away during the season. Clearly this was a much improved season with the influx of Force players, but Dave Wessels won’t be satisfied with second place.
The Reds had their winningest season since 2013, and finished with a flourish with 2 strong wins against the Rebels and the Sunwolves. It is difficult to get a read on exactly where this team is at, with fans split on whether this season should be considered a success. The gains that have been made in the forward pack, particularly the scrum, have been significant, but the struggles in attack have stunted their success. Hamish Stewart has made good strides at flyhalf, but he will need extra playmaking support next year with Jono Lance on the way out. A forward pack that includes young tyros like Caleb Timu, Taniela Tupou, JP Smith, Izack Rodda and Liam Wright is certainly one that you can build a team around. The potential of adding Israel Folau to the backline could be just the tonic they need to turn potential into points.
Four of the five New Zealand teams have made their way into the finals, so the only team celebrating Mad Monday this week was the Blues. Again, there is some potential there, particulary the attacking threat of the Ioane brothers and Sonny Bill Williams. They are clearly the weakest Kiwi team, though, so have some work to do to be competitive in such a strong conference. Over in South Africa, the Jaguares have been the success story of the year, joined in the finals by the Lions and the Sharks. The challenge for them may ultimately lie in their ability to cope with the travel over multiple weeks of finals football.
The Big Games
It’s quarter final time, so they are all big games this weekend! We start with a rematch of last weekend’s tussle between the Hurricanes and the Chiefs, only this time it will be the Canes with home ground advantage. The Chiefs have been in fantastic form lately, while the Hurricanes have spluttered their way into the finals. Last week, the Chiefs shot out to a 21-0 lead, but hung on to win a tight one 28-24 in the end. That was without Damien McKenzie, who returns this week, and brings a scary level of attacking threat to the game. The Hurricanes have been forced into a backline reshuffle after losing centre Wes Goosen, with Jordie Barrett moving into the centres and Nehe Milner-Skudder moving to fullback. This allows big Julian Savea to return on the wing, so there is no loss of strike power at all. The home ground advantage might just be enough to get the Hurricanes back in the winner’s circle in this one.
On Saturday the Crusaders host the Sharks, and it is difficult to imagine any result other than a Crusaders win. They are on a 12 match winning streak, and look for all intents and purposes the team to beat for the title. They have strengths across the park, and though they might not boast the explosive fire power of some of their New Zealand conference rivals, they are simply excellent at everything they do. After that, it’s all on the line for Australia, with the Waratahs hosting the Highlanders in Sydney. The last time these teams met back in May, the Tahs broke their duck against Kiwi teams by trouncing the Highlanders 41-12, and they do have a good record against them overall. They were, however, very disappointing last week against the Brumbies, and fans will hope that was simply an aberration that might tune them up for this one. The danger posed by the likes of Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Waisaka Naholo is second to none, particularly on counter attack, which puts the pressure on Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale to get their kicking game right. This could be an absolute cliff hanger.
Finally, the Jaguares are in South Africa to face the Lions, at it will be the Argentians’ first appearance in the Super Rugby finals. The teams have split the victories 1-1 this year in their two meetings, both games going the way of the home team, so expect this to be a huge factor again. The Jaguares have had a couple of late stumbles in the home and away rounds, so this will be a tough trip again. You can find plenty of value if you fancy an upset though, and if we’ve learnt anything this year, it is that this Jaguares team can cause an upset. This should be another tight one to finish an exciting first week of finals football.
Predictions
The Hurricanes are too good a team to keep losing, and the Cake Tin will be pumping for this one. That should be enough to the Canes over the line against the Chiefs, but it is a knife edge call. Not so for the Crusaders, who will be far too good for the Sharks, while the Waratahs, who are pretty long outsiders against the Highlanders, will cause an upset in Sydney and live to fight another week. Finally, the road trip will prove too tough for the Jaguares, and their gallant season will come to an end with a loss to the Lions.
Best Bet
We have to side with the Aussies this week, and the Tahs are offering great value to win at home over a team that they trounced the last time they met. The Waratahs head to head against Highlanders at $2.23 is our best bet of the week.
For the latest Super Rugby betting odds, click here.
