Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Semi-Final between the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights is the Warriors -6.5 / Over 44.5 / Young to Score Same Game Multi at $7.50, with New Zealand winning their last four straight against the Knights and both sides averaging well over 44.5 points in their recent meetings.
The Warriors look to bounce back from a tough loss last week as they host the Knights at Eden Park in the second NRL Semi-Final this Sunday.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
After coming within a whisker of securing the Minor Premiership, New Zealand are now teetering on the edge of disaster after losing their Qualifying Final against the Dolphins last week.
They do receive some notable reinforcements for this match, with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Leka Halasima returning, though Jackson Ford has been ruled out.
The Knights kept their hopes alive by executing an upset of their own last week, tipping over the sixth-placed Rabbitohs to earn a crack at the Preliminary Finals here.
Leg 1 - Warriors -6.5
These two sides played in the penultimate round of the regular season, with the Warriors coming out on top 46-32.
This was in line with the recent Kiwi domination of this head-to-head, where New Zealand have won the last four straight, including 38-12 earlier in the season.
The Knights did well to scratch past the Rabbitohs last week, but look largely spent this season. A remotivated Warriors side desperate to avoid embarrassment in front of the sold-out Eden Park should put them to the sword.
Leg 2 - Over 44.5 Points Total
Conventional wisdom says that finals footy will be low scoring, but not when these two are involved.
Their two meetings this season have seen 78 and 50 points scored, while each side had crossed the 44.5-point line in their four matches leading into last week.
Neither club has rock-solid defence, yet both are laden with attacking threats, exactly the recipe for a high-scoring clash.
Leg 3 - Dominic Young to Score
The Warriors have had leaky edge defence in the latter half of the season, something the Dolphins capitalised on in their victory last Saturday.
Young is a clinical finisher, having scored 21 times in 24 appearances this year, including six tries in his last six starts.
Given this clash is shaping up to be high scoring, the Knights' winger crossing over at some stage is to be expected.
Same Game Multi
Warriors -6.5 / Over 44.5 / Young to Score = $7.50
Value Bet
Watene-Zelezniak has been sidelined since Round 25 with a broken collar bone, and will be chomping at the bit to return and help get his side into the Preliminary Finals.
He's been brilliant in the matches he has played, scoring 20 tries from 21 matches, including in his last two.
The Warriors' winger thrives on the big stage, so expect him to turn it on for the home crowd and come away with a brace.
