Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Round 26 clash between the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights is the Knights +11.5 / Over 48.5 / Halasima to Score Same Game Multi at $9.00, with each of the Knights' last three matches producing 54 or more points and the Warriors leaking big leads in their last two games.
The high-flying Warriors take on the Knights at Go Media Stadium in Auckland this Sunday afternoon, with the Kiwis looking to strengthen their grip on the Minor Premiership.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Last weekend saw New Zealand ascend to top spot on the NRL ladder by the thinnest of margins, edging out the Rabbitohs to take a one-point lead on differential.
It was a far tougher round for the Knights, who fell 44-24 to an inspired Sea Eagles side.
The defeat pushed Newcastle down to sixth, a position they'll be looking to shore up as they head into their final match of the season this weekend.
Leg 1 - Knights +11.5
The Warriors have been dominant in their past two matches against top-eight sides, but have had big lapses in periods as well.
Against the Rabbitohs, that saw a 32-8 lead cut to just six points midway through the second half, while against the Panthers they leaked two late tries and were fortunate to have a third disallowed.
New Zealand should come away with the two points from this fixture, but another lapse, or just a strong performance by the Knights, should keep this one within the +11.5 spread.
Leg 2 - Over 48.5 Points Total
Both teams are coming into this clash off the back of high-scoring matches, 68 points total for the Knights and 71 for the Warriors.
These weren't one-offs either. New Zealand have cracked 40 points in three of their last four matches, while each of the Knights' last three matches have had 54 or more points scored.
Leg 3 - Leka Halasima to Score
Halasima is playing centre this week, a position where he's scored in three of his last four starts.
The returning Te Maire Martin will be eager to set him up with plenty of one-on-ones, which should lead to the barnstorming 20-year-old crossing over again.
Same Game Multi
Knights +11.5 / Over 48.5 / Halasima to Score = $9.00
Value Bet
New Zealand leak most of their line breaks up the middle of the field.
While Ponga isn't necessarily the one who will make these breaks, he's an excellent support runner and should be there to capitalise.
