State of Origin Game Two Preview
Sunday, 23rd June 7:50pm, Perth Stadium
Game two of the Holden State of Origin series sees Queensland take a 1-0 series lead over New South Wales after overcoming an 8-0 deficit at halftime to run away 18-14 victors in the first game at Suncorp Stadium. As a result of this both coaches have made a number of changes to their game one sides in a bid to take out game two, read on as we detail these changes and preview how we think game two will play out in Perth.
2019 State of Origin Game Two Line Ups
Not many people would have predicted a total of 9 changes being made between the two states after the high quality match that was on show in game one but that is the situation for both sides as a number of injuries has forced the hands of both coaches. For Queensland their two changes were the result of injuries as Joe Ofahengaue succumbed to a knee laceration from game one and is replaced by Tim Glasby on the bench and Jai Arrow is in danger of missing the rest of the origin series as he is set to be out for 6-12 weeks due to an ankle injury. As a result Arrow will be replaced by club mate Jarrod Wallace who comes onto the bench and Dylan Napa, who is battling a broken bone in his wrist, is set to come into the starting side after coming off the bench in game one. Queensland's changes seem minuscule in comparison to those of New South Wales as coach Brad Fittler has completely upended his squad by making 7 changes, made up of 5 recalls to players who missed out due to a mixture of form and injury as well as handing 2 debuts to two forwards at the opposite ends of their careers. These two players are 121kg prop Daniel Saifiti who is set to replace his injured Newcastle Knights teammate David Klemmer in the front row and Melbourne Storm veteran Dale Finucane, who receives a well earned debut after being on the brink for a number of years as he comes in to replace youngster Payne Haas, who is out with injury, on the bench. In the back five Fittler has made 3 changes as he recalls Dally M winger of the year from 2018 in Blake Ferguson for the injured Nick Cotric, Tom Trbojevic comes in for veteran Josh Morris, who was arguably one of New South Wales best backs in game one, and Jack Wighton starts in the centres over Latrell Mitchell in one of the biggest origin selection calls in recent history. To complement these changes there has been a trio of recalls for players who starred in the 2018 winning series for the blues as James Maloney comes into the halves, Wade Graham comes onto the bench and Tariq Sims joins him on the bench too.
The make up of both teams and in particularly the structure of each teams benches paints an interesting story to how each team will play. For Queensland it looks like coach Kevin Walters will stick with the simple rotation of his middle forwards and with the one obvious utility in Moses Mbye who will come on either late in the game or towards the end of the first half. On the other hand NSW have gone with a bench consisting of two specialist back rowers in Wade Graham and Tariq Sims and two specialist locks in Cameron Murray and Dale Finucane. Of these four Wade Graham appears to be the most likely utility due to his silky ball skills and ability to play in the halves or centres, which leaves Sims, Murray and Finucane to play through the middle or have captain Boyd Cordner or Tyson Frizzell , both 80 minute players, spend time on the bench. How each of the coaches uses their rotations proves to be an interesting subplot in how game two plays out.
Key Match Ups
Paul Vaughan vs Josh Papalii
With the news that New South Wales leading forward from game one in David Klemmer being out for game two there is a massive hole for their forward pack to fill. Much of this responsibility will fall on one of the veterans of the front row from recent seasons in Paul Vaughan who will have to lead from the front as his front row partner, Daniel Saifiti, will be playing his first game at origin level. Vaughan’s first game performance was respectable with 101m and 28 tackles but he will be looking to improve on his 1 tackle break and 19 post contact metres from game one if he is to help fill the void left by Klemmer who had a massive 39 post contact metres. Looking to stop him will be Queensland’s best front rower from game one in Josh Papalii who consistently bent the NSW line and caused them numerous problems. Papalii led all of Queensland’s forwards in run metres in game one with 131 and posted 28 tackles to go with his 39 post contact metres. If New South Wales are to win game two then the battle of the forwards will be important as Vaughan will need to stamp his authority over Papalii as well as helping to take the responsibility away from Saifiti in the early stages of the game.
James Maloney vs Cameron Munster
In game one Cameron Munster proved his world class status as he led from the front in sparking Queensland attack when they were 8-0 down early in the second half. Munster did this through his eyes up play that led to 1 line break and 7 tackle breaks whilst constantly creating doubts in the minds of the New South Wales defensive line. Unfortunately for the blues their five eight from game one Cody Walker struggled to settle into his game and Munster dominated their battle convincingly. For game two a veteran of New South Wales and big games in James Maloney comes into the halves as he looks to use his deft short kicking game and experience to stem the flow of Munster. Over the course of the last 2 weeks Maloney has returned to the form that saw him be the leading playmaker for NSW in their series win last year as he has posted 4 try assists and 2 line break assists to lead the Panthers to a 4 game winning streak. If New South Wales are going to win they are going to need a controlling performance from Maloney that will push Queensland deep in their own half and not allow Munster to settle into his game from an attacking positions of the field.
Josh Addo-Carr vs Dane Gagai
The battle of two electric wingers who, when given the opportunity, can turn a game on its head in the blink of an eye will prove pivotal to the result of game two. Fortunately for Queensland fans Gagai was given this opportunity in game one as he intercepted an audacious Jack Wighton pass to run the length of the field to score the try that gave Queensland the lead. Hotly on his tail was Addo-Carr who almost chased him down and will be disappointed with his effort 3 minutes later as he came storming out of the line to leave Gagai unmarked and open to score his 2nd try that ultimately decided the game for Queensland. Addo-Carr will be eager to redeem himself in game two as his defence was of concern for New South Wales, with 3 ineffective tackles and 2 errors that provided Queensland with valuable possession. Interestingly, both times that New South Wales won last year Addo-Carr scored in both games and the two games they have lost in the last 18 months have been when Addo-Carr didn’t score. For New South Wales to win then it will take an improved performance from Addo-Carr and Queensland will be hoping that their man of the match from game one in Dane Gagai will help stop the flair of Addo-Carr and lead them to victory again.
Recent History
For the first time in State of Origin history one of the three games will be taken to Perth in what proves to be an interesting instalment to the 2019 series. Both teams will be eager for game two as neither teams performances were perfect in game one with a number of errors, missed tackles and silly decision ultimately costing both teams vital points. For New South Wales they brought two different performances to game one as they showed in the first half that when they are in their rhythm they can be near unstoppable as they completed all but one set in a dominant performance that saw them lead 8-0 at halftime. Unfortunately for them the second half was a different story as they completed under 75% of their sets and struggled to hold onto possession as Queensland took advantage of a Latrell Mitchell sin bin and a number of errors to run over the top of them thanks to a pair of Dane Gagai tries. Queensland, themselves, weren’t perfect as much of their attack was created by Gagai, Cameron Munster and captain Daly Cherry-Evans and they will be hoping for a more improved team performance to support their key players. Over the last decade game two has been marginally edged by New South Wales as they have won 6 of the last 10 but with this being the first game in Perth it remains to be seen how the extra travel for both sides affects the performances of the players.
First Try Scorer
Game one saw NSW blues centre Josh Morris crash over for the opening try after Queensland winger Corey Oates was denied the opening try due to stepping in touch minutes before. This game sees Morris dropped in place of Tom Trbojevic who featured heavily in last years series, scoring in both games one and games three, whilst NSW have a makeshift centre in Jack Wighton replacing Latrell Mitchell. Your columnists selection from game one, Dane Gagai, proved his try scoring ability by scoring twice to win Queensland the match and whether Queensland will be looking to exploit Wighton, in his first game at centre this year, remains to be seen. For us we are confident that they will look to attack the same New South Wales left edge that they caused havoc down in game but this time we are looking at the value and experience of Will Chambers to score first as he comes up against Jack Wighton, who is largely inexperienced and out of position at this level.
Recommended Bet: Will Chambers $21
Best Bet
With the success of our best bet from game one in either team winning under six points we are going to stick to a similar strategy in this game. With all 5 of the previous 5 game two clashes between Queensland and New South Wales being decided by 10 points or less we are confident that with this in mind and the close nature of game one that the winner from this game will again win by a small margin. To go with this New South Wales have won 6 of the last 10 game two’s and with more on the line as they look to keep the 2019 origin series alive we are leaning towards them winning in a close game.
Recommended Bet: New South Wales 1-12 $2.80
