State of Origin Game One Preview
After 11 rounds the 2019 State of Origin teams have been selected for round one and with that comes the excitement of one of the most heated and exciting games of rugby league that fans can watch all year. Read on as we preview game ones lineups, the key match ups, recent history and provide our tips for the first try scorer and our best bet.
Wednesday, 5th June 8:10pm, Suncorp Stadium
2019 State of Origin Game One Line Ups
2019 State of Origin game one sees two completely different teams from game 3 of last year as both coaches look to change their sides up as a result of injury, form and a different outlook on how they can win this year. In total, both teams have named 8 debutants whilst also recalling 2 origin veterans between them in what proves to be a vastly different make up to that of previous years. New South Wales have brought in the young but ever reliable Canberra Raider Nick Cotric on the wing for Tom Trbojevic, who has a huge job to match the metres that Trbojevic got for NSW when coming out of trouble last year, and have replaced utility Tyrone Peachey with another raider in Jack Wighton who has the potential to play anywhere in the backline or as a roaming forward. Coach Brad Fittler has also brought in a pair of South Sydney Rabbitohs players as a reward for their top of the table form in Cody Walker for the veteran James Maloney and Cameron Murray for the suspended Jack De Belin whilst also handing a start to 10 game rookie in Payne Haas who comes in for Tariq Sims. Fittler has also recalled former origin star Josh Morris for the out of James Roberts in a look to sure up the right side defence of Nathan Cleary and debutant Nick Cotric. On the other hand Queensland have handed debuts to 2 baby Brisbane Broncos players in David Fifita who comes in for out of form Coen Hess and Joe Ofehengaue who takes Jarrod Wallace's spot whilst also recalling the ever reliable Bronco Matt Gillett for Gavin Cooper. Coach Kevin Walters has also moved Ben Hunt to hooker in light of Andrew McCullough’s injury meaning that Wests Tigers captain Moses Mbye comes into the side as the utility and will no doubt show his versatility that has seen him play every position in the backline besides wing and even hooker for his club. How these changes affect the performances of both teams remain to be seen but you can bet that both teams will be looking to exploit the inexperience of the debutants in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium.
Key Match Ups
Kalyn Ponga vs James Tedesco
Two of the games most electric players will face off in what is a mouthwatering and potentially game changing match up for both sides. NSW blues fullback James Tedesco won about all that could be won last year as he stormed to his first state of origin shield, the NRL premiership and solidified his spot as the Australian Kangaroos fullback but despite this is still facing a challenge from young gun Kayln Ponga as the games best fullback. Ponga has taken the league by storm over the last 2 seasons as he came agonisingly close to winning the Dally M medal last year in his first full season of regular NRL and has continued this form over the first 3 months of 2019 as his Newcastle Knights sit within the top four and recorded an impressive 38-8 win against Tedesco’s Roosters last round. Despite this victory through the opening 11 rounds of NRL Tedesco leads Ponga in every key statistic as he holds 8 tries to Ponga’s 7, 13 line breaks to Ponga’s 10, 74 tackle breaks to Ponga’s 51 and 2,051 run metres to Ponga’s 1,421 metres. Tedesco’s game has gone to a new level this season, in particularly his attacking game, and we are predicting his experience in the origin arena to play a large part in how this match up plays out.
Damien Cook vs Ben Hunt
The incumbent Australian Kangaroos hooker up against the St. George Illawarra Dragons halfback turned hooker for the Queensland Maroons may sound like a complete mismatch on paper but this is definitely one to watch. The Ben Hunt selection at hooker may have puzzled a few people but it is easy to forget that he provided much needed spark when he came on as hooker in game three of last years origin and has done the job as a bench hooker at international level to much success too. In saying that, the role of starting hooker is a much different scenario to coming off the bench and it remains to be seen if Kevin Walters uses the old Brisbane Broncos tactic in starting Josh McGuire in the hooker role for the opening 20 minutes before moving Ben Hunt in there for the remainder of the game. What we do know although is that whoever is in the middle of the park for Queensland will have a humongous job in stopping the live wire NSW dummy half in Damien Cook. Cook has been electric over the last 18 months and this season he already leads the league in dummy half runs by 38 runs to 2nd placed Cameron Smith as well as making the 4th most tackles, leading the league in try assists with 14 and sitting second in the league for line break assists with 10. This sort of form can’t be paralleled across the league and if NSW do manage to pull off a miraculous win at Suncorp then you can bet that Cook would have played a large hand in the result.
David Klemmer vs Josh Papalii
It is often said that games are won by the battles of the forwards in the early stages of the game and this clash between arguably two of the best front rowers through the opening 11 rounds of 2019 looks like an absolute belter. Since David Klemmer has moved up the north coast of New South Wales to the Newcastle Knights he has taken his game to another level by increasing his minutes significantly and in doing so leading a Newcastle pack who currently sit within the top four. On the other side is Josh Papalii who has led from the front in an experienced Canberra pack since being asked to move to the front row permanently and has played a large part in Canberra sitting within the top eight. Klemmer’s rise in form can be highlighted through the large amount of work he has got through and the fact that he currently leads the league in runs, post contact metres and sits 3rd in the league for total metres. For Queensland to win it will take a mammoth effort from Papalii to stop Klemmer in the early stages but he has shown his worth in the origin arena by running for the 2nd most metres behind Gavin Cooper in game 3 of last year and Queensland will be hoping he can replicate that form this year.
Cody Walker vs Cameron Munster
Can the form half of the competition in Cody Walker translate his sensational NRL form into the origin arena on his debut or will the young but experienced Cameron Munster show why he is considered the future of Australian halves? That is the question that is on many peoples lips as two of the games best halves go head to head in a possibly match defining match up. Walker has been nothing short of electric so far in 2019 as he leads the league with 11 tries, has 8 try assists, 8 linebreaks, 8 linebreak assists and 42 tackle breaks of his own. These stats only show a short story of Walker’s ability to play eyes up footy but Munster has shown that he has the potential to perform on the big stage over the last 3 years as he has played in the last 3 grand finals and currently sits 2nd on the Dally M leaderboard with a host of man of the match performances for his club the Melbourne Storm. Munster’s ability to find the right pass and kick has been impressive over recent years but this is arguably his biggest test and we are leaning towards his experience going a long way to win the battle over Walker.
Recent History
Game one for the 2019 series sees the defending champions in the NSW Blues return to Suncorp Stadium where they suffered an 18-12 loss as Daly Cherry Evans returned to the Origin arena for the first time in 3 years and successfully led the Maroons to their 3rd win in their last 4 meetings against the Blues at Suncorp. The Blues only win at Suncorp came in game one of 2017 where they whacked Queensland 28-4 but eventually went onto lose the series on the back of a Johnathan Thurston masterclass. Of the 55 games played at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park Queensland have won 35 of them, with one draw, giving them a 63% strike rate at their home ground but it is their dominance in recent years that has been even more telling. Of the 11 games at Suncorp Stadium since the 2010 series Queensland have won 9 of them and whether NSW can turn this streak around with 5 debutants remains to be seen and will be a telling part in how this origin series plays out.
First Try Scorer
Over the last 2 State of Origin series there has been a significant showing of wingers scoring the first try with 4 out of 6 of the first tries scored coming from a winger. Of the 2 tries that weren’t scored from a winger they came from NSW fullback James Tedesco in 2018 and NSW five eight James Maloney in 2017. More significant is the fact that of the four tries scored first from a winger they all came from a Queensland winger by the name of Valentine Holmes. Although Valentine Holmes may not be playing in this years State of Origin we are leaning towards Queensland starting fast again and trying to exploit the debutant NSW winger Nick Cotric and his new centre pairing in Josh Morris in defence. Facing up against them is Will Chambers and Dane Gagai and we are predicting a first try for Dane Gagai to continue Queensland's dominance of first try scorers.
Recommended Bet: Dane Gagai First Try Scorer $11
Best Bet
The evenness of this first game cannot be understated and with 3 of the last 5 opening games from State of Origin being decided by 6 points or less we are leaning towards the either team to win by under 6 points market.
Note: this can be found under our Triple Margin I market in our margin markets labelled as “any other result”
Recommended Bet: Triple Margin I any other result $2.40
